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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#14

I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.

It's really funny math, based solely on the idea I borrow enough with floating interest rates, pegged to treasuries. but it confirms I am suffering, therefore it is correct

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#15

I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.

Have you tried just ignoring your calculator and going all-in on vibes?

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#16
I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well.

The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you.

True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour worked.

Take 1963 as an Example. Sears sold entire two story home kits with all materials for $1600. An Italian rifle in 1963 was $20. McDonalds burgers were 15¢ . Postage was 5¢ and had only increased 5 times in the previous 100 years.

You might retort that average household income is $70000 now vs $6200 in the early 60s– a tremendous boon. Remember in 1963 only the man was working, and typically supported 4 kids, a wife and often parents in the home.

In other words you had 1 man working 50 hours a week afford a house and support 5-6 other people. Today you have 2 people working 100 hours a week to support 1-2 additional people , while living in an apartment and living in a run down and crime infested neighborhood.

In case you think this is academic, look at the occupations for those who lived in today’s wealthiest neighborhoods. Today Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and other super zips are exclusively $500k incomes and up. In the 1960 census records you will find these good neighborhoods occupied with plumbers, painters and other blue collar workers.

My point is that inflation isn’t abstract and it isn’t a law of nature. It’s a deliberate approach to stealing your prosperity while you cheer it on.

Summers is right more than he’s wrong. Real inflation has always been higher than the bogus CPI numbers, and the past 5 years it’s been accelerating.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#17

I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.

The pandemic was worldwide, and every other central bank has been printing, too. Depending on which currency you're trading against, that could be a factor. For a while in 2021-2, non-dollar currencies were inflating even faster, so DXY actually went up even as the dollar weakened against goods and services. Even if the tables have turned and the dollar is weakening faster now, it's not like everybody else has actually reigned in their own printing.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#18
post #3

[flagged]

This absolutely reads like a reasoned counterpoint to a dubious claim and totally not at all like an unhinged, partisan knee-jerk rejection of additional information that's bad news for your preferred platform.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#19

I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.

The other currency is also suffering from inflation
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