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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

theatlantic.com

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Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#131

Post by microarchitect »

temphn wrote: post #116
jluan wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the point you make contradicts Steve Blank's at all; to me, Blank's thesis is that startups in the Valley no longer choose to pursue truly disruptive technological innovation because our ecosystem now almost exclusively rewards areas such as social media, where you have to run as fast as you can just to stay where you are, to the detriment of "hard tech" such as biotech, robotics, and the semiconductors…

Elon Musk made his fortune with Paypal, an internet company. Google made its fortune on the internet. There is nothing that prevents people from making the easier dollars first in something like Zynga and then going and putting their personal $10M to work on something of substance.

Google is fundamentally different from Facebook because they solved a really hard problem really well and then found an excellent way of monetizing their solution. People still use Google today largely because it works better than the other options out there. Further, the other options are worse not because the others aren't trying hard enough or spending enough on search.

To me, Google falls squarely in the disruptive and hard category. I mean no disrespect to Zuckerburg, but there's a reason Google was founded by two Stanford PhD students and not a bunch of bored undergrads.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#132

Post by foobarqux »

sigkill wrote: post #128
JPKab wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars that drive themselves. Distributed power generation. Web connected sensors in everything. You know, things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook.

Facebook(the platform, not the company) was pretty instrumental for the Arab Spring.

Mark Zuckerberg doesn't think so. http://www.charlierose.com/view/clip/12125

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#133

Post by robterrell »

jonmc12 wrote: post #76

The problem Steve Blank is pointing out is one of solving quality of life problems, and sustainability problems when there is easier money to be made in entertaining consumers. Facebook just accentuates the point. Its a bit idealistic to think that Silicon Valley ever really had it right or that government funding is the solution to innovation of 'real' problems. People have a large dimension of needs. Some of these…

Upvote and comment: for many users, Facebook is indeed solving a "quality of life" problem -- how do I stay in touch with people? It's a first-world problem, sure, and maybe it looks a bit like entertainment, but it's a real problem that they are solving.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#134

Post by koide »

nextstep wrote: post #68
grimboy wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you're not using it yet is almost a necessary condition for it being groundbreaking. The basic technology for the iPad has been around for ages, but the real innovation of the iPad is getting everything working smoothly and cohesively in a way that previous devices didn't. You may well be using AR of some variety at some point in the future but it will be some refined version with the kinks ironed out.

You're right! The iPad isn't groundbreaking, because it exists and I can buy one today. Something really groundbreaking exists only in promo videos, has no publicly stated timeline for release, and is only actively discussed in tech news comment echo chambers.

The point is that the iPad has already broken ground. And that truly innovative and groundbreaking things are yet in the drawing board.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#135

Post by koide »

grimboy wrote: post #61
nextstep wrote: post #24

Google Goggles is an augmented reality app that basically layers Yelp reviews over Google Maps Streetview. Did he mean Google Glass, the AR glasses that Google made a video about? Does this guy really think that the Google Glass project is groundbreaking? If it's so Earth-shattering, why am I typing this on an iPad and not through some next generation AR display on my head?!

The fact that you're not using it yet is almost a necessary condition for it being groundbreaking. The basic technology for the iPad has been around for ages, but the real innovation of the iPad is getting everything working smoothly and cohesively in a way that previous devices didn't. You may well be using AR of some variety at some point in the future but it will be some refined version with the kinks ironed out.

I'm willing to bet that if Google releases their AR Goggles, Apple will wait a year and then release the iGlasses which will actually work and revolutionize the masses.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#136

Post by adpirz »

atarian wrote: post #124
temphn wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk made his fortune with Paypal, an internet company. Google made its fortune on the internet. There is nothing that prevents people from making the easier dollars first in something like Zynga and then going and putting their personal $10M to work on something of substance.

This. A lot of people forget that Elon Musk spent a large portion of his own money to fund new ventures from Paypal. Bill Gates is helping many disadvantaged people around the world with the money he earned from Microsoft. I'd also like to point out that a lot of these Internet companies contribute to charities, so the money isn't just a 100% flow up the hierarchy.

This doesn't hit the root of the problem. If we rely on the current SV enterprise model, we're basically just hoping that the billionaires that come out of this social media binge will be socially aware enough to invest in hard problems themselves, and in that sense, they become almost feudal lords.

This is a case where I think, just like Blanks states, the government's responsibility to counteract market forces for the common good plays a role. We should be tripling our research grant budgets for hard science. I feel like every week I'm hearing of an MIT PhD student making major breakthroughs in nanotube battery capacity or thorium reactor tech, but these aren't valuable investments for private VCs because the returns will not be quick and will not be as outrageous as a site that can go live tomorrow with the virality of the Ebola virus.

But that's just the way the cookie crumbles, ie, the market forces at work. I don't think it makes sense on a society level to be investing as much as we are in social ventures, and I hope we do find a way, public or private, to shift some of that investment back into solid tech. Wildcard prediction: biotech is the next big boom.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#137

Post by pyre »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #82
usaar333 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tablets shouldn't be discounted, but I can't see how they'll change more peoples' lives more than automated driving. In terms of your points. (I'm assuming tablet = pad type of computer such as ipad, kindle, etc.): 1. Cheaper: Is this true compared to an ultra-low cost laptop, such as the OLPC X 1.75? They might have less components (no keyboard/mouse/touchpad), but capacitive touch screens aren't cheap (I believe $4…

We spend something like 5-10% of our time driving. Automated driving would allow us to save that and use it for something useful. Not many innovations have saved people that much time.

You'll still be sitting in the car during that time (these are driverless cars, not personal teleporters), so I wager that the extra time will be spent on Angry Birds or watching TV on your phone.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#138

Post by tsotha »

forensic wrote: post #122
tsotha wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As much as I dislike Facebook, there is some scientific evidence that increasing one's social ties produces measurable improvements to health, including longevity. Yes, increasing those ties in person . I have yet to see any evidence social media has the same effect. Also, those studies may have the causality arrow going the wrong way. Sick people tend to stay at home and not get out much, so it may be that you're m…

>I have yet to see any evidence social media has the same effect. Have you looked for these studies? Are you an expert on this corner of the literature? There have been studies and they do show that internet socialization has an effect on a variety of relevant measurements. To summarize, Internet socialization is not equivalent to face-to-face socialization but it does provide some of the benefits and is also able to…

Perhaps you can cite the research with which you're so familiar.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#139

Post by guscost »

microarchitect wrote: post #131
temphn wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk made his fortune with Paypal, an internet company. Google made its fortune on the internet. There is nothing that prevents people from making the easier dollars first in something like Zynga and then going and putting their personal $10M to work on something of substance.

Google is fundamentally different from Facebook because they solved a really hard problem really well and then found an excellent way of monetizing their solution. People still use Google today largely because it works better than the other options out there. Further, the other options are worse not because the others aren't trying hard enough or spending enough on search. To me, Google falls squarely in the disrupti…

110% correct.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#140

Post by maigret »

microarchitect wrote: post #131
temphn wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk made his fortune with Paypal, an internet company. Google made its fortune on the internet. There is nothing that prevents people from making the easier dollars first in something like Zynga and then going and putting their personal $10M to work on something of substance.

Google is fundamentally different from Facebook because they solved a really hard problem really well and then found an excellent way of monetizing their solution. People still use Google today largely because it works better than the other options out there. Further, the other options are worse not because the others aren't trying hard enough or spending enough on search. To me, Google falls squarely in the disrupti…

Funny, the more I learn about Facebook, the less I believe to this distinction. You've got to see how much people FB hired out of Goog to see that they've got some technical talents, and I can hardly imagine they are idling. Facebook may not be solving all the same problems than Goog, but they probably have an equivalent advanced DC management. See their work on devops, PHP compiler, and how they opened their server architecture. There is a part of truth, but I think Google PR has created itself a good image of "engineer wizards" which may be a bit overstated.
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