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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

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81–90 of 151 posts

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#81
post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

agreeing with what others have said. Blank has basically redefined the study of entrepreneurship (in addition to starting and exiting quite a number of companies).

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revo…

Tablets shouldn't be discounted, but I can't see how they'll change more peoples' lives more than automated driving. In terms of your points. (I'm assuming tablet = pad type of computer such as ipad, kindle, etc.): 1. Cheaper: Is this true compared to an ultra-low cost laptop, such as the OLPC X 1.75? They might have less components (no keyboard/mouse/touchpad), but capacitive touch screens aren't cheap (I believe $4…

We spend something like 5-10% of our time driving. Automated driving would allow us to save that and use it for something useful. Not many innovations have saved people that much time.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#83
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution? I would venture that technology that makes the world a lot smaller and puts information at your fingertips, e.g., tablets, phones, social networks, etc. will be a much bigger disrupter in the way we live our current lives. Maybe in the future we won't have to drive as much since we can just get things done without having to waste time in…

> If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution?

To first approximation, humans have a fixed amount of daily attention span.[1] Automated driving will effectively increase the workforce by ~5%. The base rate of "maintenance attention" is already supplied, so much of the 5% will go to the margins, increasing the rate of progress. Since progress compounds exponentially over time, this is huge.

[1]Research I have read on the optimal length of work week, and other research on performance after sustained vigilence.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#84

Something that has been concerning to me over the past few years is the shortsightedness at the national level. Sure, a national endeavor for growth can include tax policies, broadband programs, educational reform, capital investments, flexible monetary policies, etc. BUT, I think one of the most important and worthwhile goal should be the decentralization of high-growth job centers. Setting up shop in Silicon Valley…

You mean like Austin, Seattle, Boulder, Huntsville, D.C., and so forth, just to rattle a few off the tip of my finger? The Bay Area is already not the center of the tech universe, contrary to what the HN Opinion Amplifier might lead you to think.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#85
post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

>Who cares what this guy thinks? "This guy" is Steve Blank[1]. He's kind of a big deal in SV and the startup scene in general. Whether or not you agree with his assessment of Valley culture, his personal cachet is such that it behooves you to take notice. []1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Blank

Be careful not to give him credibility just because he's an expert.

While we should take notice because he has a track record of knowing what he's talking about, we should evaluate his claims on its own, regardless of who makes the claim.

Is it true that VCs no longer invests in the hard sciences? I don't think so. There's VCs that invest in cleantech and biotech.

Is it true that VCs like quick returns and will increase investments in social media? Probably. In addition, they can only invest in what entrepreneurs are building.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#86
post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

>Who cares what this guy thinks? "This guy" is Steve Blank[1]. He's kind of a big deal in SV and the startup scene in general. Whether or not you agree with his assessment of Valley culture, his personal cachet is such that it behooves you to take notice. []1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Blank

[deleted]

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#87
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is a device that afford convenience not disruptive? I can walk from Seattle to Portland if I desired, the only advantage a car offers is convenience. Yet through that dramatic increase in convenience the car has proven to be one of the most disruptive inventions in history. Similarly, one can communicate, do graphic design, mix audio, produce movies, write letters and novels without a computer but the convenience…

Those comparisons aren't even nearly on the same scale. A car doesn't just offer convenience, it offers trips that were previously impossible. It is not possible to walk from Seattle to Portland in any kind of meaningful timeframe. An iPad, on the other hand, makes a few tasks marginally quicker, but is incapable of other tasks. It is marginally more portable. Yes, there are other benefits (as you state) but they are…

Those comparisons aren't even nearly on the same scale. A car doesn't just offer convenience, it offers trips that were previously impossible. It is not possible to walk from Seattle to Portland in any kind of meaningful timeframe.

It's only 2-3 days by horse. You could do it in about a week on foot.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#88
post #37

I see a lot of comments addressed to "this guy" referring to Steve Blank. Let's not forget he's been involved in silicon valley startups since the 70s, including founding semiconductor companies. While they're no hello world rails startup, he has a proven track record and a first-hand experience of how the valley has evolved. I suspect many of you haven't seen his take on the history of the valley, which might give c…

Yeah, it amuses me to read the number of people here saying he doesn't get Silicon Valley. He might be wrong, but he certainly isn't ill-informed. You can also read his 10-part history of Silicon Valley on his blog:

http://steveblank.com/category/secret-history-of-silicon-val...

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#89
Steve Blank is a respected Valley veteran who has written highly insightful and informative materials about the history and development of the Valley (see http://steveblank.com/secret-history/) and so his opinion is worthy of note.

That said, I have been in the Valley since 1968, have watched its ups and downs professionally since the early 1980s, and can say without question that it is currently bursting at the seams with opportunity from every conceivable angle. Yes, the days when silicon was king are well past their "golden" stage but they have been replaced by an era where founders have decided leverage and power to realize great visions without having to overcome the resource/knowledge barriers that predominated just a decade ago, where innovative investors have more ability than ever to leverage early-stage situations in ways that used to be monopolized by just a few top-tier VCs, and where the disruptive impact of technological change generally is leaving old-guard companies staggering as startups who vigorously challenge them proliferate - all to the great benefit of society at large. Plans are afoot at every top-tier company - Facebook, Google, Apple, etc. - to grab control of the whole process and eventually dictate to others how they might participate in it, but such plans have not yet succeeded even when they once seemed almost inevitable (thinking of 90s Microsoft here). As long as companies remain free to innovate, there likely will be successive stages of greatness in the Valley (and, of course, elsewhere where comparable elements exist) and it is a mistake, in my view, to attempt to label any particular outstanding stage in the past, or any particular mode of growth, as "golden" in some special way. As long as human nature is what it is, enterprise will take many forms, each suitable to its time and no one form more particularly special than the other. The key is to capitalize on the opportunities as they exist, leaving history to play itself out as it will.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#90
post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

Apple does not need VC money.
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