I wonder if people criticized the telephone as much when people instead of "working" spent time chatting on the phone with their friends. Sure there will be people who waste time doing that, but I think in broader terms, it will help open up communication channels, enable new collaborations, allow a free exchange of ideas, and also lead to more innovation. It's just hard to see where things are going, but I would bet that they are headed in a positive direction.
'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
21–30 of 151 posts
Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#22Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's the real stuff?
Cars that drive themselves. Distributed power generation. Web connected sensors in everything. You know, things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook.
As much as I dislike Facebook, there is some scientific evidence that increasing one's social ties produces measurable improvements to health, including longevity. If Facebook increases social connectivity, which in my limited experience it does, it's not a stretch to suggest that it could materially improve one's quality of life.
My money's still on google though for the long run ...
Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#24Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#25However, the striking problem with the statement is that it is not backed up by data. How much money that would've been invested in "core" technology (technology used to enable other technology), pharmaceutical, or other investments was instead funneled for short-term gains into social start-ups? I'd understand that if one just read tech news, one might think all investment goes to SV software firms these days, but I have a hard time believing that's a fact and not just a matter of media selection.
Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#26"THOMPSON: Is Facebook worth $100 billion? BLANK: In the last bubble there were no customers. Facebook makes $4 per user. The users are customers. They produce real revenue. Nobody's debating whether Facebook can make money. They're debating how much more valuable Facebook's hundreds of millions of users can be, and how fast can they can grow that value. That's an execution problem." Facebook makes $4 per user from a…
One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns. Obviously cleanly measuring advertising returns from fb is hard, but it's still being done. Second, fb can put up the first credible alternative to adsense since they collect browsing info from their fb login and other widgets. In fact, they can do better than adsense: fb can mix in very accurate demographics alongside the page context.…
Advertising isn't worthless, but advertisers are very naive. You talk about companies spending money because they are stupid. I SUSPECT, but only Facebook has the data to KNOW, that there is a high turnover in companies advertising on Facebook. New companies coming in every day, but also many who realize they aren't getting a return on investment and leaving. I think a lot of big companies advertise on it strictly for brand presence, rather than for direct sales. That's fine. But let's not pretend that there is remotely the click-thru rate that Google has.
Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#27Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.
He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.
I think that autonomous vehicles will be revolutionary, but it's going to be 5-10 years before such claims are anything more than bold prognostications.
Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#28Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#29Sure, a national endeavor for growth can include tax policies, broadband programs, educational reform, capital investments, flexible monetary policies, etc.
BUT, I think one of the most important and worthwhile goal should be the decentralization of high-growth job centers.
Setting up shop in Silicon Valley these days is ridiculously expensive. Besides, basing a large percentage of your high-growth businesses in an area that may be ravaged by a natural disaster at a moment's notice is clearly unwise.
Furthermore, the success of the nation should not be tied to the fate of Silicon Valley, or the fate of 3-5 major job centers. Hence, a national priority should be to decentralize this economic activity across the country.
There is no catch-22 here, contrary to what people say. ("We set up shop here because all the qualified workforce is here.")
With real estates, school expenses, public transportation capacity and urbanization reaching unsustainable levels, there is no doubt start-ups would benefit from setting up shop in less expensive areas, where their employees could live without mortgaging themselves to retirement or sacrificing the well-being of their family members.
Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revo…
What will it disrupt exactly? Example? As far as I can tell, it is merely a device that affords convenience.
I can walk from Seattle to Portland if I desired, the only advantage a car offers is convenience. Yet through that dramatic increase in convenience the car has proven to be one of the most disruptive inventions in history. Similarly, one can communicate, do graphic design, mix audio, produce movies, write letters and novels without a computer but the convenience afforded by computers and the internet has fundamentally transformed all of those activities.