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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

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Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#91

Post by po »

I think the valuations are a bit of a bubble, but social media is real.

In the dotcom bubble of 2001 I heard the same thing except with "internet" replacing "social media".

In the last bubble there were no customers. Facebook makes $4 per user. The users are customers. They produce real revenue. Nobody's debating whether Facebook can make money.

This may be true but how much of that $4 per user is driven by the bubble itself? How much advertising is coming from companies that are within the Silicon Valley gravity well? If the (so-called) tech bubble pops, people will still need cars, vacuum cleaners and food so how well does Facebook do with those kinds of advertisers?

The reason a bubble is scary is because it distorts your normal metrics of what a healthy company is. It doesn't matter how much money you're making selling hotdogs at the boardwalk if one day people stop going to the beach.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#92

Post by derwiki »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

Largest _publicly_ traded company; I believe there is at least one privately held oil company worth more.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#93

Post by derwiki »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

Largest _publicly_ traded company; I believe there is at least one privately held oil company worth more.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#94

Post by EternalFury »

Daniel_Newby wrote: post #84
EternalFury wrote: post #29

Something that has been concerning to me over the past few years is the shortsightedness at the national level. Sure, a national endeavor for growth can include tax policies, broadband programs, educational reform, capital investments, flexible monetary policies, etc. BUT, I think one of the most important and worthwhile goal should be the decentralization of high-growth job centers. Setting up shop in Silicon Valley…

You mean like Austin, Seattle, Boulder, Huntsville, D.C., and so forth, just to rattle a few off the tip of my finger? The Bay Area is already not the center of the tech universe, contrary to what the HN Opinion Amplifier might lead you to think.

Silicon Valley, Seattle, Austin, Chapel Hill, Boston/Cambridge, New York ~= 90% of the pie. I guess that's not concentrated enough for you.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#95

Post by EternalFury »

usaar333 wrote: post #66
EternalFury wrote: post #29

Something that has been concerning to me over the past few years is the shortsightedness at the national level. Sure, a national endeavor for growth can include tax policies, broadband programs, educational reform, capital investments, flexible monetary policies, etc. BUT, I think one of the most important and worthwhile goal should be the decentralization of high-growth job centers. Setting up shop in Silicon Valley…

While centralization has its risks, the benefits of an entire industry being in close proximity to helping good ideas spread cannot be understated.

Agreed, but it can also lead to herd behaviors, where every other start-up aims to become another Facebook, Twitter, Google or whatever symbol of the day.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#96

Post by jluan »

grellas wrote: post #89

Steve Blank is a respected Valley veteran who has written highly insightful and informative materials about the history and development of the Valley (see http://steveblank.com/secret-history/ ) and so his opinion is worthy of note. That said, I have been in the Valley since 1968, have watched its ups and downs professionally since the early 1980s, and can say without question that it is currently bursting at the sea…

I don't think the point you make contradicts Steve Blank's at all; to me, Blank's thesis is that startups in the Valley no longer choose to pursue truly disruptive technological innovation because our ecosystem now almost exclusively rewards areas such as social media, where you have to run as fast as you can just to stay where you are, to the detriment of "hard tech" such as biotech, robotics, and the semiconductors of old.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#97

Post by saket123 »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #11
recursive wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revo…

I am a gamer and I totally disagree with your point about gaming. Try playing FIFA 2012 on iPad vs. try playing it on laptop or PC. You will feel the difference.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#98

Post by InclinedPlane »

kd0amg wrote: post #47
InclinedPlane wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is a device that afford convenience not disruptive? I can walk from Seattle to Portland if I desired, the only advantage a car offers is convenience. Yet through that dramatic increase in convenience the car has proven to be one of the most disruptive inventions in history. Similarly, one can communicate, do graphic design, mix audio, produce movies, write letters and novels without a computer but the convenience…

There's a difference between "makes this already-very-feasible thing a bit more convenient" and "makes this thing feasible."

Right, so cell phones are irrelevant then because when they were introduced it was already already-very-feasible to call people, indeed it happened millions of times a day all across the country, telephone calls were routine. But even though cell phones made a feasible thing even more convenient and easier they were still a very transformative and very lucrative technology.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#99

Post by philwelch »

mjwalshe wrote: post #57

This trophe is older than time its self people always say that yesterday was a golden age and those pesky kids today are ruining it. "I see no hope for the future of our people if they are dependent on frivolous youth of today, for certainly all youth are reckless beyond words... When I was young, we were taught to be discreet and respectful of elders, but the present youth are exceedingly wise [disrespectful] and im…

The problem with that quote of Hesiod is that, for all we know, the youth of Hesiod's time and place were worse behaved than their parents. And in any case, it's a question of how much technical innovation is coming out of an economic center, not whether we're disciplining our kids as well.

If you want to apply some ancient wisdom, here is some: change is constant. And it's not always for the best.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#100

Post by redthrowaway »

iamwil wrote: post #85
redthrowaway wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Who cares what this guy thinks? "This guy" is Steve Blank[1]. He's kind of a big deal in SV and the startup scene in general. Whether or not you agree with his assessment of Valley culture, his personal cachet is such that it behooves you to take notice. []1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Blank

Be careful not to give him credibility just because he's an expert. While we should take notice because he has a track record of knowing what he's talking about, we should evaluate his claims on its own, regardless of who makes the claim. Is it true that VCs no longer invests in the hard sciences? I don't think so. There's VCs that invest in cleantech and biotech. Is it true that VCs like quick returns and will incre…

>Be careful not to give him credibility just because he's an expert.

Absolutely. While his argument should be evaluated on it's own merit, the fact that it's Steve Blank means it's likely worth evaluating.

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