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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

theatlantic.com

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Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#61

Post by grimboy »

nextstep wrote: post #24

Google Goggles is an augmented reality app that basically layers Yelp reviews over Google Maps Streetview. Did he mean Google Glass, the AR glasses that Google made a video about? Does this guy really think that the Google Glass project is groundbreaking? If it's so Earth-shattering, why am I typing this on an iPad and not through some next generation AR display on my head?!

The fact that you're not using it yet is almost a necessary condition for it being groundbreaking. The basic technology for the iPad has been around for ages, but the real innovation of the iPad is getting everything working smoothly and cohesively in a way that previous devices didn't. You may well be using AR of some variety at some point in the future but it will be some refined version with the kinks ironed out.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#62

Post by DanBC »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

iPhone and iPad are not innovations, they're just very very good iteration of existing tech.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#63

Post by akgerber »

untog wrote: post #48
InclinedPlane wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is a device that afford convenience not disruptive? I can walk from Seattle to Portland if I desired, the only advantage a car offers is convenience. Yet through that dramatic increase in convenience the car has proven to be one of the most disruptive inventions in history. Similarly, one can communicate, do graphic design, mix audio, produce movies, write letters and novels without a computer but the convenience…

Those comparisons aren't even nearly on the same scale. A car doesn't just offer convenience, it offers trips that were previously impossible. It is not possible to walk from Seattle to Portland in any kind of meaningful timeframe. An iPad, on the other hand, makes a few tasks marginally quicker, but is incapable of other tasks. It is marginally more portable. Yes, there are other benefits (as you state) but they are…

What makes a timeframe meaningful? Many of the settlers of the American West (including Portland and Seattle) walked there from Missouri alongside their wagons.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#65

Post by redthrowaway »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

>Who cares what this guy thinks?

"This guy" is Steve Blank[1]. He's kind of a big deal in SV and the startup scene in general. Whether or not you agree with his assessment of Valley culture, his personal cachet is such that it behooves you to take notice.

[]1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Blank

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#66

Post by usaar333 »

EternalFury wrote: post #29

Something that has been concerning to me over the past few years is the shortsightedness at the national level. Sure, a national endeavor for growth can include tax policies, broadband programs, educational reform, capital investments, flexible monetary policies, etc. BUT, I think one of the most important and worthwhile goal should be the decentralization of high-growth job centers. Setting up shop in Silicon Valley…

While centralization has its risks, the benefits of an entire industry being in close proximity to helping good ideas spread cannot be understated.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#67

Post by tsotha »

muhfuhkuh wrote: post #45
tsotha wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're vastly overstating the disruption potential of the iPad. Most people who use tablet computers use them as internet-connected televisions to stream videos. A TV that can play Angry Birds isn't a disruptive technology. Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer, and a computer you consider dirt cheap is impossibly far out of reach for people who're wondering where their next meal is comin…

Okay, what about a TV that can play Angry Birds, take a picture and send it via SMS or email, and let's you surf, chat, share your life, and meet new people. "Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer" Wow, so short-sighted I don't even know where to begin. You must not know how deeply mobile technology has penetrated on earth. The fact that phones are now becoming small computers seems to completely…

>Okay, what about a TV that can play Angry Birds, take a picture and send it via SMS or email, and let's you surf, chat, share your life, and meet new people.

Yes, it's a great first-world toy for teenagers and young adults.

>Wow, so short-sighted I don't even know where to begin. You must not know how deeply mobile technology has penetrated on earth. The fact that phones are now becoming small computers seems to completely escape you.

Likely not, as I work for a wireless provider and know, up to the minute, what our customers are doing (in the aggregate, of course). Mobile phones penetrated the market because you can use them as phones. That's the killer app. Sure, they're little computers and can do other things too. But they'd have the same penetration as the old Palm Pilot if they didn't make calls.

Tablets are too big to carry around with you everywhere. You might buy a phone and a tablet, but if money is tight you're not going to get both, and the phone is more useful.

>3rd world countries have wireless coverage. There are villages in Asia and Africa where a kid comes through on a bike (or horse!) with a car battery to charge people's phones in the slums for around a US penny or thereabouts.

Yes, but for what they pay they're not going to get the bandwidth you need to take advantage of a tablet. It makes perfect sense for people in far-flung villages to buy mobile phones - they can do things like arrange business transactions or check the latest prices for their crops. But they don't need an expensive data service to do it.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#68

Post by nextstep »

grimboy wrote: post #61
nextstep wrote: post #24

Google Goggles is an augmented reality app that basically layers Yelp reviews over Google Maps Streetview. Did he mean Google Glass, the AR glasses that Google made a video about? Does this guy really think that the Google Glass project is groundbreaking? If it's so Earth-shattering, why am I typing this on an iPad and not through some next generation AR display on my head?!

The fact that you're not using it yet is almost a necessary condition for it being groundbreaking. The basic technology for the iPad has been around for ages, but the real innovation of the iPad is getting everything working smoothly and cohesively in a way that previous devices didn't. You may well be using AR of some variety at some point in the future but it will be some refined version with the kinks ironed out.

You're right! The iPad isn't groundbreaking, because it exists and I can buy one today. Something really groundbreaking exists only in promo videos, has no publicly stated timeline for release, and is only actively discussed in tech news comment echo chambers.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#69

Post by tsotha »

b_emery wrote: post #23
JPKab wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars that drive themselves. Distributed power generation. Web connected sensors in everything. You know, things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook.

> things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook. As much as I dislike Facebook, there is some scientific evidence that increasing one's social ties produces measurable improvements to health, including longevity. If Facebook increases social connectivity, which in my limited experience it does, it's not a stretch to suggest that it could materially improve one's quality of lif…

>As much as I dislike Facebook, there is some scientific evidence that increasing one's social ties produces measurable improvements to health, including longevity.

Yes, increasing those ties in person. I have yet to see any evidence social media has the same effect.

Also, those studies may have the causality arrow going the wrong way. Sick people tend to stay at home and not get out much, so it may be that you're more likely to have social ties if you're healthy than the other way around.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#70

Post by nhebb »

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

There's a couple of problems with that argument. Apple is a great Silicon Valley success story, but they don't make products in Silicon Valley. They design them there, but they are manufactured elsewhere. In its heyday, Silicon Valley used to make things. Tangible things.

Manufacturing companies not only provide direct labor employment opportunities, but they also create 2-3 jobs in the local economy for every direct labor position.

The hardware companies of yesteryear made products that had a compounding value in the economy. Test and measurement equipment, processors, workstations, etc., were put to use making other products that had value, hence the compounding effect. I'm sure Apple products have a compounding value effect, but a company like Facebook probably doesn't, at least to the degree the old SV companies and their products did.

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