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Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

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Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#101
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest problem has been that they stopped innovating ever since the CEO decided his focus was needed more on an app he found mildly annoying that he ended up buying accidentally because he couldn’t contain his bravado. Model 3 and Model Y era had the momentum they needed and instead of focusing on expanding to other segments or offering more range of models, they decided they needed an impractical truck. They co…

You really believe all of the innovation at Tesla was being done by Musk? The cybertruck was his baby.

The point is a CEO can almost certainly derail a company despite not being fully or even partially responsible for previous innovative products.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody currently working at VW/Porsche worked for Hitler, and nobody currently working at Ford helped Henry run the presses for his antisemitic pamphlets. So that's a nonissue. What did Renault's founder do? Hadn't heard about that.

VW was involved in a colossal emissions con.

As consumer I always wondered, were the cars worse for it? Or were they actually better, if I don't consider emissions critical in my decision making process.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#103
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.

It is only winner takes all if Tesla keeps being only one with self-driving... Which to me looking into history is insane. Is there any technology where there is only single provider? It is big enough market that eventually there will be multiple-players and then it will be race to bottom. Marginal profits. Self-driving taxis will be dumped like Uber and Lyft did against other players. And then it will be low margin…

Right? And even if they did score a virtual monopoly in the US through assiduous lobbying, they can't keep a global lid on development forever. Especially that if they do crack it, they prove that it both can be done and it's "just" the software. Even without the Asian manufacturers, the German ones wouldn't just roll over and die either.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#104
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota will have a greater marketcap than Tesla, by the end of this year. I just purchased a Camry Hybrid and it is just an incredible driving experience.

Does that include the super annoying lane-keeping? Rented a Corolla and would never want to drive that again.

That feature is easily turned off, which is a good thing because it is more dangerous than helpful.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota will have a greater marketcap than Tesla, by the end of this year. I just purchased a Camry Hybrid and it is just an incredible driving experience.

Toyota is a dinosaur that’s going extinct with their policies on EVs

Toyota's [IMHO correct] insistance on manufacturing hybrids instead of full-EVs is what is going to help them be so successful. My Camry hybrid gets 50mpg+, and "re-charging" it on roadtrips is as simple as filling the gastank.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the argument for it goes as folllows: Tesla has more 'self supervised' driving data than any other car brand, so if data is key to making self driving work, they win. You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. Now before I get flamed, I don't own Tesla stock, and no I don't think self driving is just around the corner. I'm perfectly happy with good autopilot thou…

> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.

It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.

It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.

Even if that were the case (big "if"), that can't go on forever. Even if it's literally just a matter of who has enough data and training core-years, at some point a competitor, maybe with state-level support, will have "enough" data to come after you with their own self driving option. Perhaps now Tesla is at 90% (just say, it's just an example) and Mercedes (again say) is at 10%. One day Tesla may be 100% and Mercedes is at 30%, and the German government, for one, will be shoveling cash into the furnace the whole time if the German auto industry is in existential danger. The gap can only close.

Meanwhile once you reach full self driving, you're stuck at diminishing returns. Doubling your data won't double that: at best you could make a very marginal improvement to safety stats or range economy. Maybe with a lot of lobbying you could swing a slightly higher Tesla-only speed limit, but double self driving isn't a thing. Everything else in the car is commodity stuff like sound systems and seat heaters that anyone with a car factory and a team of designers and a copy of the Bosch Automotive Handbook can do if they want to. Probably you could get some network effects from the "Rent your Tesla out" app, but again, that's an option for anyone with a team of designers once the self-driving part is done and they'll be in the disruption phase and aggressively undercutting as best they can.

This also assumes that in 2029 you can't just use 80% (again... just a random date and a random number) synthetic training data and leapfrog nearly all of those hard-won physical miles. The costs of doing that will plummet too, so the training cost moat will only shrink as well.

Meanwhile Tesla will be ossifying as gigantic trillion dollar behemoths tend to do, accruing costs like pensions, management entrenchment will be in its third decade and so on.

On the other hand, if we're doing hypotheticals, if it did come to pass and Tesla is sitting pretty on a 13-figure valuation predicated on it being the only self driving car out there and a competitor pops up suddenly from stealth mode with a fully-formed alternative, much of the value could evaporate so fast it would be a structural hazard to the economy. That would be an interesting situation. And, remember, are that point it's all predicated on the software being the key, so Upstart Autonomy Inc. can license it to Mercedes and get it in cars almost immediately.

Is Tesla worth a lot? Undoubtedly. Is it that much? Questionable to me. But then the market disagrees, so what do I know (but also the market was off by 30% by it's own estimation so how much does it know?)

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.

It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.

Even if that didn't ignore the scaling behavior of auto manufacturing, which it very badly does, that would only be a reason it might be winner-take-all, because it has a giant load-bearing “if”.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#109
post #101
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really believe all of the innovation at Tesla was being done by Musk? The cybertruck was his baby.

The point is a CEO can almost certainly derail a company despite not being fully or even partially responsible for previous innovative products.

That was my point. The ceo dictates where the resources are allocated and what direction the company needs to go in. Elon especially hates to delegate, which makes it hard to keep doing new things if he’s not around. Add to it the fact that Elon literally took key Tesla and SpaceX engineering & staff to make Twitter work, definitely makes sure Tesla wasn’t continuing to innovate.

Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.

Even if that didn't ignore the scaling behavior of auto manufacturing , which it very badly does, that would only be a reason it might be winner-take-all, because it has a giant load-bearing “if”.

right, above I mentioned that it's too big of an if for me to invest. Hence why I think Tesla is a decent car that people should consider, but I'm not a shareholder.
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