Earlier quoted context omitted.
The biggest problem has been that they stopped innovating ever since the CEO decided his focus was needed more on an app he found mildly annoying that he ended up buying accidentally because he couldn’t contain his bravado. Model 3 and Model Y era had the momentum they needed and instead of focusing on expanding to other segments or offering more range of models, they decided they needed an impractical truck. They co…
You really believe all of the innovation at Tesla was being done by Musk? The cybertruck was his baby.
Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
101–110 of 115 posts
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody currently working at VW/Porsche worked for Hitler, and nobody currently working at Ford helped Henry run the presses for his antisemitic pamphlets. So that's a nonissue. What did Renault's founder do? Hadn't heard about that.
VW was involved in a colossal emissions con.
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.
It is only winner takes all if Tesla keeps being only one with self-driving... Which to me looking into history is insane. Is there any technology where there is only single provider? It is big enough market that eventually there will be multiple-players and then it will be race to bottom. Marginal profits. Self-driving taxis will be dumped like Uber and Lyft did against other players. And then it will be low margin…
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Toyota will have a greater marketcap than Tesla, by the end of this year. I just purchased a Camry Hybrid and it is just an incredible driving experience.
Does that include the super annoying lane-keeping? Rented a Corolla and would never want to drive that again.
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
Toyota will have a greater marketcap than Tesla, by the end of this year. I just purchased a Camry Hybrid and it is just an incredible driving experience.
Toyota is a dinosaur that’s going extinct with their policies on EVs
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the argument for it goes as folllows: Tesla has more 'self supervised' driving data than any other car brand, so if data is key to making self driving work, they win. You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. Now before I get flamed, I don't own Tesla stock, and no I don't think self driving is just around the corner. I'm perfectly happy with good autopilot thou…
> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.
It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.
Meanwhile once you reach full self driving, you're stuck at diminishing returns. Doubling your data won't double that: at best you could make a very marginal improvement to safety stats or range economy. Maybe with a lot of lobbying you could swing a slightly higher Tesla-only speed limit, but double self driving isn't a thing. Everything else in the car is commodity stuff like sound systems and seat heaters that anyone with a car factory and a team of designers and a copy of the Bosch Automotive Handbook can do if they want to. Probably you could get some network effects from the "Rent your Tesla out" app, but again, that's an option for anyone with a team of designers once the self-driving part is done and they'll be in the disruption phase and aggressively undercutting as best they can.
This also assumes that in 2029 you can't just use 80% (again... just a random date and a random number) synthetic training data and leapfrog nearly all of those hard-won physical miles. The costs of doing that will plummet too, so the training cost moat will only shrink as well.
Meanwhile Tesla will be ossifying as gigantic trillion dollar behemoths tend to do, accruing costs like pensions, management entrenchment will be in its third decade and so on.
On the other hand, if we're doing hypotheticals, if it did come to pass and Tesla is sitting pretty on a 13-figure valuation predicated on it being the only self driving car out there and a competitor pops up suddenly from stealth mode with a fully-formed alternative, much of the value could evaporate so fast it would be a structural hazard to the economy. That would be an interesting situation. And, remember, are that point it's all predicated on the software being the key, so Upstart Autonomy Inc. can license it to Mercedes and get it in cars almost immediately.
Is Tesla worth a lot? Undoubtedly. Is it that much? Questionable to me. But then the market disagrees, so what do I know (but also the market was off by 30% by it's own estimation so how much does it know?)
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.
It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
You really believe all of the innovation at Tesla was being done by Musk? The cybertruck was his baby.
The point is a CEO can almost certainly derail a company despite not being fully or even partially responsible for previous innovative products.
Re: Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominance wanes
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.
Even if that didn't ignore the scaling behavior of auto manufacturing , which it very badly does, that would only be a reason it might be winner-take-all, because it has a giant load-bearing “if”.