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Notes on El Salvador

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Re: Notes on El Salvador

#41

Post by kaladin-jasnah »

roenxi wrote: post #12
screye wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

The interesting one to watch out for is how often democracies form with the support of an existing democracy - I only have a loose understanding of the history but France seemed to have an outsized role in the US becoming what it is today. The failures (USSR, Republic of China for example) where democracy doesn't take on a wide scale are probably also interesting studies. The key problem in setting up a democracy is…

ROC is a democracy today (although it was a one party state with the KMT for a long time), do you mean the PRC or am I misunderstanding your comment?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#42

Post by philwelch »

bitcurious wrote: post #35
screye wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

The US became absurdly wealthy during the 20th century. Canada did well too. Poland, Czechia, Estonia and a few other recently independent democracies are thriving as well.

The US became absurdly wealthy during the 19th century as well, particularly after the Civil War.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#43

Post by coldtea »

bitcurious wrote: post #35
screye wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

The US became absurdly wealthy during the 20th century. Canada did well too. Poland, Czechia, Estonia and a few other recently independent democracies are thriving as well.

>The US became absurdly wealthy during the 20th century.

Yes, but it was bootstrapped by the biggest land takeover in history, along with all of its natural resources. It also benefitted from all the western big players of the 19th/early 20th century being exhausted after 2 wars that never touched continental US soil. Neither is easily replicated without a rich in natural resources continent full of easy targets, or massive remote wars.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#44

Post by ks2048 »

someplaceguy wrote: post #40
ks2048 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've lived in Guatemala for 4.5 years (I'm from the US) and traveled in every country in Central America, and have had only positive experiences. Guatemala is a great country, but difficult for local people because it's hard to make good money. The violence problems are real, but much safer than its reputation, in my opinion.

Hmm... possibly a literal survivorship bias at work here? :)

Sure, that's part of it. The stats are the stats - the rest is anecdotes. But, with experience in a place you realize the crime is concentrated to certain places and groups of people.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#45

Post by coldtea »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #22
screye wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

I think democracy needs a “Deep State” to succeed. This can be imposed by a time of autocracy gradually evolving into democracy - see the UK, imposed during colonialism and then taken over after independence - see the Indian Civil Service, Courts, etc, or imposed by an occupying force - see Germany. Without that “Deep State” it will degenerate in alternating bouts of violence until people cry out for autocracy - See…

>I think democracy needs a “Deep State” to succeed

That's the very thing that kills a democracy (both the system of government, and a country that develops one).

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#46

Post by numeri »

screye wrote: post #8
stainablesteel wrote: post #5

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

I believe this was one of Machiavelli's big arguments in The Prince – that sometimes a country in crisis needs a single strong leader/monarch/dictator, using cruelty if necessary to keep control and bring stability.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#47

Post by coldtea »

jrflowers wrote: post #27
stainablesteel wrote: post #5

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

> democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to make a country like this functional What makes El Salvador a “country like this” that is incompatible with democracy as compared to other countries

The practical experience of 20th century Latin America countries, and their history, both regarding domestic politics and dynamics and external influence and meddling?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#48

Post by macintux »

nocoiner wrote: post #29
RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think democracy needs a “Deep State” to succeed. This can be imposed by a time of autocracy gradually evolving into democracy - see the UK, imposed during colonialism and then taken over after independence - see the Indian Civil Service, Courts, etc, or imposed by an occupying force - see Germany. Without that “Deep State” it will degenerate in alternating bouts of violence until people cry out for autocracy - See…

My general working thesis is that 99.9% of the time when people refer to the “deep state,” they just mean “the state.” Aren’t you just referring to regular government institutions or is there something I’m missing from your comment?

Can’t speak to the original comment, but I think part of a “deep state” is institutional inertia/tradition.

A state without that deep-rooted sense of continuity is much more fragile. Having a civil service without political allegiance seems to be critical to preservation of a democratic system.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#49

Post by Gimpei »

screye wrote: post #8
stainablesteel wrote: post #5

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

This is not true. Japan and South Korea both experienced the majority of their growth as democracies. Eastern Europe only took off after the fall of the USSR. Chile experienced most of its growth after Pinochet. India is the largest Democracy on earth and it is growing at a very fast clip.

That being said, there simply aren’t very many countries and even less ones that made the successful leap to rich world status regardless of the political regime. There’s a huge small sample problem here. And then of course there’s also a huge endogeneity problem. The literature in general has found a weak positive association between democratization and growth. And that’s about the most we can say. Stop worrying about the data not being on your side; it isn’t on anyone’s side.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#50

Post by jrflowers »

coldtea wrote: post #47
jrflowers wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to make a country like this functional What makes El Salvador a “country like this” that is incompatible with democracy as compared to other countries

The practical experience of 20th century Latin America countries, and their history, both regarding domestic politics and dynamics and external influence and meddling?

This makes sense. Latin America is incompatible with democracy and the reason for that is history; such a conclusion is so obvious it is a surprise that anyone would support the idea of democracy anywhere in the continent
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