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Notes on El Salvador

mattlakeman.org

21–30 of 210 posts

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#21
Great article, but I do have one quibble. The author says El Salvador was not an interesting country to visit to him.

Based on my personal experience the countryside is beautiful, the beaches are great and the people are lovely. Yes, the cities are "ugly" but I didn't mind San Salvador at all. I'm not the type to seek out nightlife though.

It would be a shame to miss it if you're in the area.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#22
post #8

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

I think democracy needs a “Deep State” to succeed.

This can be imposed by a time of autocracy gradually evolving into democracy - see the UK, imposed during colonialism and then taken over after independence - see the Indian Civil Service, Courts, etc, or imposed by an occupying force - see Germany.

Without that “Deep State” it will degenerate in alternating bouts of violence until people cry out for autocracy - See Roman Republic.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#23
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They all still are fine. I drove the entire pan American highway from Alaska to Argentina from 2009 to 2011. I have dozens of Friends that have done it, and I moderate a Facebook group where thousands are doing it right now. As the marketing for tourism Colombia goes “the only danger is you’ll never want to leave”

This is absolutely not my experience or the experience of many people I know that have traveled in the region. Latin America is great but the safety concerns are real.

I've lived in Guatemala for 4.5 years (I'm from the US) and traveled in every country in Central America, and have had only positive experiences. Guatemala is a great country, but difficult for local people because it's hard to make good money. The violence problems are real, but much safer than its reputation, in my opinion.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#25
post #8

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

What are your top examples of autocratic success stories?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#26
post #9

Gang crime seem to be a common weakness of democracies. There's a notable list of countries that had to resort to elect a quasi-dictator to get rid of gangs. As my hometown is coming to grip with a bubbling gang war, I wonder if there is a better way.

Dictatorship is very good at combating crime if it's under good hands (which itself is a tall order imo), just look at Singapore, the problem with dictatorship is the lack of accountability and 99% of dictators simply suck at governing hence democracy is usually better since most dictators have a severe case of Dunning–Kruger effect. People like Bukele and Lee Kuan Yew are very few and far between.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#27

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

> democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to make a country like this functional

What makes El Salvador a “country like this” that is incompatible with democracy as compared to other countries

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#28
post #4

I backpacked through El Salvador in 2007. I don’t remember people saying it was particularly dangerous. Honduras was the place I was told to skip, unless you wanted to scuba in Roatan There were other backpackers in the hostels. Even Colombia at that time was fine.

Unfortunately most El Salvadorians are not backpacking through their country for recreation. It’s an assuredly different set of circumstances if you’re living there and from there.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#29
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a cynical idealist, I once tried to find 1 country of decent size that could escape the poverty/mis-governance trap while being a democracy. I found zero success stories. Every 20th century economic success story was a defacto autocratic nation. They only transitioned to democracy after they'd reached a certain level of development. (I excluded preexisting high HDI nations and ones that accidentally hit mineral go…

I think democracy needs a “Deep State” to succeed. This can be imposed by a time of autocracy gradually evolving into democracy - see the UK, imposed during colonialism and then taken over after independence - see the Indian Civil Service, Courts, etc, or imposed by an occupying force - see Germany. Without that “Deep State” it will degenerate in alternating bouts of violence until people cry out for autocracy - See…

My general working thesis is that 99.9% of the time when people refer to the “deep state,” they just mean “the state.”

Aren’t you just referring to regular government institutions or is there something I’m missing from your comment?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#30

> Rather, the best case against Bukele is that he has created severe systemic political risk in El Salvador by converting the government from a democracy to a de facto dictatorship then hes in a good place to introduce some kind of monarchy, or personal transfer of power, someday. people want him to be dictator for life and he seems to be loved enough to receive it. democracy doesn't deal with gangs well enough to ma…

He could give the new dynasty of autocratic rulers some innocuous title like Mayors.
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