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For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

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Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#61

Post by sph »

api wrote: post #36
d--b wrote: post #26

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

Inflation in everything but wages, information, and technology. Inflation adjusted wages are relatively flat compared to inflation elsewhere, while information and tech are deflating . The wave of super cheap EVs hasn’t even hit yet, and as you say AI hasn’t really hit yet. Solar power will soon be the cheapest source of power in history and it’s still falling. This has been going on for about two decades. How does t…

When economists throw Keynes in the bin where he belongs and accept that inflation is not because of lack of spending, but because of an ever expanding money supply.

Not gonna happen anytime soon, governments love Keynesian economics.

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#62

Post by DecentRecruiter »

d--b wrote: post #26

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

Stock market: investors like that companies are correcting for the over-hiring that peaked in 2021 - lower costs & higher productivity.

Housing prices: have barely increased since late 2022 in most major cities (falling in cities like Austin). Still, you're right, they're unreachable for most.

Gold: it's not the traditional safe haven investment it used to be. Its correlation with stock prices is much higher than it was in the old days.

Bitcoin: I will never understand!

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#63

Post by bdw5204 »

DecentRecruiter wrote: post #62
d--b wrote: post #26

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

Stock market: investors like that companies are correcting for the over-hiring that peaked in 2021 - lower costs & higher productivity. Housing prices: have barely increased since late 2022 in most major cities (falling in cities like Austin). Still, you're right, they're unreachable for most. Gold: it's not the traditional safe haven investment it used to be. Its correlation with stock prices is much higher than it…

A "stock market boom" built on killing jobs is not a booming economy. That's why any politician who brags about or defends this morally indefensible "boom" is going to be in trouble politically.

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#64

Post by api »

sph wrote: post #61
api wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation in everything but wages, information, and technology. Inflation adjusted wages are relatively flat compared to inflation elsewhere, while information and tech are deflating . The wave of super cheap EVs hasn’t even hit yet, and as you say AI hasn’t really hit yet. Solar power will soon be the cheapest source of power in history and it’s still falling. This has been going on for about two decades. How does t…

When economists throw Keynes in the bin where he belongs and accept that inflation is not because of lack of spending, but because of an ever expanding money supply. Not gonna happen anytime soon, governments love Keynesian economics.

Keynes gets the blame for policies he never would have supported. He advocated counter cyclic spending: deficits during recessions, surpluses during booms. That and the idea of monetary velocity are his biggest insights.

What we do isn’t Keynesian. We run deficits in recessions and deficits in booms and make them bigger and bigger. This has consistently happened under both major political parties (yes including Trump) since the 1980s.

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#65

Post by crotchfire »

api wrote: post #36
d--b wrote: post #26

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

Inflation in everything but wages, information, and technology. Inflation adjusted wages are relatively flat compared to inflation elsewhere, while information and tech are deflating . The wave of super cheap EVs hasn’t even hit yet, and as you say AI hasn’t really hit yet. Solar power will soon be the cheapest source of power in history and it’s still falling. This has been going on for about two decades. How does t…

> How does this end?

War, unfortunately.

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#66

Post by DecentRecruiter »

bdw5204 wrote: post #63
DecentRecruiter wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market: investors like that companies are correcting for the over-hiring that peaked in 2021 - lower costs & higher productivity. Housing prices: have barely increased since late 2022 in most major cities (falling in cities like Austin). Still, you're right, they're unreachable for most. Gold: it's not the traditional safe haven investment it used to be. Its correlation with stock prices is much higher than it…

A "stock market boom" built on killing jobs is not a booming economy. That's why any politician who brags about or defends this morally indefensible "boom" is going to be in trouble politically.

I wouldn't call it morally indefensible for companies to make layoffs after the hiring irrational exuberance that occured in 2021. They're trimming fat.

I would use that label for a Private Equity firm leveraged buyout, followed by a complete gutting of employees, then a quick flip for profit.

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#67

Post by MattPalmer1086 »

Tutitk wrote: post #3

> pages and pages of jobs, most requiring at least three, even five, years of experience. > recent graduate with a degree in cyber security College is the problem! It should provide job relevant skills and education! Instead students are forced to study irrelevant garbage. If this guy studied himself, he would save money, and had a few years of relevant experience by now.

Education is not training for work. It has much more significant value beyond being something that launches a junior career,

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#68

Post by TMWNN »

d--b wrote: post #26

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

>At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123...>

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#69

Post by busterarm »

t-writescode wrote: post #56
busterarm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, senior pay expectations are wildly out of orbit because of some exuberant behavior from the FAANGs during COVID. It's been extra annoying because they say the compensation range is fine before the interviews and suddenly their pay expectations are 20%-50% higher than the high end of the range after interviews even when they have no other offers and even if they didn't wow us in the interview.

Where are you seeing that? A lot of senior roles I'm seeing lately have a salary range of 150k. That used to be the salary of mid-level in my area (PNW)

Not as severe but that's sort of my point. For a brief year or two some companies were offering senior talent insane/unsustainable money and salaries are coming back down.

People still think that they're worth the insane money that FAANGs were paying during the lockdowns that they have since mostly laid off.

It's fairly normal in NY for senior IC hires to be offered 180k-230k plus some equity. I'm seeing candidates who agree to interview being told this range and then come offer time they won't budge below 280k cash and expect big equity.

Sure, Facebook was paying people that two years ago but they are aggressively lowballing people right now and we aren't.

Re: For young people, the job search has never been so miserable

#70

Post by Perceval »

Quothling wrote: post #49
d--b wrote: post #26

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

> At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... I recommend reading Thomas Piketty if you want some of the more modern works on what is going on with our social economics in the west. It's not exactly a new phenomenon though, wealth inequality is part of the cycle of civilization and it always leads to some form of wealth redistribution. How that happen…

Interesting that you begin your comment with Piketty and end with housing value. A Brookings study on Piketty's work indicates that most of the re-concentration of wealth that Piketty finds is actually driven by increases in housing prices: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/deciphering-the-fall-and-.... By contrast, non-housing capital income is on a secular decline since WWII.
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