Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#81

Post by Workaccount2 » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:01 PM UTC

dragonelite wrote: post #62

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

I think i saw a energy usage breakdown of the Netherlands supplied by our CBS central statistics bureau. Citizens living energy usage was around 14% of total energy usage of our country. Industry is by far the biggest energy user that is why people are talking about the deindustrialisation of Germany. Once companies germans could be proud of are moving to the US or China or getting closed off. I read about companies…

Of the many electronics we build at my job, one of them is a shoe box sized 5kW power supply that we sell to the railroads. Testing 10 of these units in one afternoon, by one tech in a closet sized room, uses more energy than my house uses in a month (yes, it can get very hot in that room, hah)

And this is a very tiny project that's simply just easy recurring revenue. The bigger units that are being built and tested all day everyday will go through 100kWh just warning up.

It puts things into perspective were I can bend over backwards at home to save energy, but at work if I order a unit to be retested "just to be sure", it can wipe out months of energy I saved at home by being especially conscientious.

Not saying it's a waste to be efficient at home, I do it myself. But man, industry uses _a lot_ of energy, and it's not clear how to make it more efficient. I can't test a 25kW supply without running it at...25kW.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#82

Post by helsinkiandrew » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:06 PM UTC

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

It's not just you and your electric car - Germany has been the world leader in increasing energy efficiency for several decades - 35% reduction in housing and 12% in industry since 2000. I think the national target is a further 30% reduction by 2030.

https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/efficiency-trends-p...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#83

Post by jorvi » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:14 PM UTC

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #82

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

It's not just you and your electric car - Germany has been the world leader in increasing energy efficiency for several decades - 35% reduction in housing and 12% in industry since 2000. I think the national target is a further 30% reduction by 2030. https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/efficiency-trends-p...

Isn’t that because they lagged horribly behind everyone?

It’s quite easy to become “energy efficiency improvement king” for a few decades if all you have to do is pick the low-hanging fruit that everyone else already has.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#84

Post by binary132 » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:16 PM UTC

dragonelite wrote: post #62

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

I think i saw a energy usage breakdown of the Netherlands supplied by our CBS central statistics bureau. Citizens living energy usage was around 14% of total energy usage of our country. Industry is by far the biggest energy user that is why people are talking about the deindustrialisation of Germany. Once companies germans could be proud of are moving to the US or China or getting closed off. I read about companies…

Companies that survived both world wars did so because of central and international planning. If they’re failing now, the causative forces are the same.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#85

Post by nradov » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:18 PM UTC

iammjm wrote: post #50

kennethwolters wrote: post #8

This is a classic story where Germans are amazing at doing the R&D on something but are squeezed so hard while scaling, that technologically less sophisticated competitors take over and dominate the market. Imagine what German engineering could push into the market if it weren't for this self-flagellation. Maybe it is time again for German engineers and scientists to emigrate to greener pastures.

Part of the problem is the conservatives blocking the investments because they believe any debt is super bad

Is there some reason that solar power industry investments would have to be financed using debt rather than equity?

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#86

Post by trymas » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:21 PM UTC

Workaccount2 wrote: post #81

dragonelite wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think i saw a energy usage breakdown of the Netherlands supplied by our CBS central statistics bureau. Citizens living energy usage was around 14% of total energy usage of our country. Industry is by far the biggest energy user that is why people are talking about the deindustrialisation of Germany. Once companies germans could be proud of are moving to the US or China or getting closed off. I read about companies…

Of the many electronics we build at my job, one of them is a shoe box sized 5kW power supply that we sell to the railroads. Testing 10 of these units in one afternoon, by one tech in a closet sized room, uses more energy than my house uses in a month (yes, it can get very hot in that room, hah) And this is a very tiny project that's simply just easy recurring revenue. The bigger units that are being built and tested…

That puts a great perspective, though please correct if I am wrong - if you are testing power supplies - you need to dump that power somewhere?

Can’t you dump it back to power grid (easy to say, probably not so easy to do)? There will be losses, but better than nothing.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#87

Post by MaKey » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:21 PM UTC

Rinzler89 wrote: post #78

mmarq wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment Most people in Germany don’t buy the apartments they live in, because renting in Germany gives you more or less the same rights as owning a leasehold flat in the UK. If you really want to buy a flat, tax-wise it is more convenient to rent it out and rent another one to live in. In many cities there are rent control mechanisms that make renting extremely cheape…

Owning gives you the advantage of not flushing away a third of your income down the drain and instead owning something that's yours by the time you retire instead of paying your landlord's lease and then retiring in poverty as you won't be able to afford rent on your pension. Have you seen new rent prices right now? It's definitely not "extremely cheap". It's only extremely cheap for those in grandfathered contracts.

Living in a flat while also owning it might have been a viable option in the past but that ship has sailed quite a while ago. In major cities - which is where the good joobs are - you're looking at down-payments of 200-300k to arrive at your current rent and even then you'd pay the mortgage for 30 years.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#88

Post by mmarq » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:24 PM UTC

Rinzler89 wrote: post #78

mmarq wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment Most people in Germany don’t buy the apartments they live in, because renting in Germany gives you more or less the same rights as owning a leasehold flat in the UK. If you really want to buy a flat, tax-wise it is more convenient to rent it out and rent another one to live in. In many cities there are rent control mechanisms that make renting extremely cheape…

Owning gives you the advantage of not flushing away a third of your income down the drain and instead owning something that's yours by the time you retire instead of paying your landlord's lease and then retiring in poverty as you won't be able to afford rent on your pension. Have you seen new rent prices right now? It's definitely not "extremely cheap". It's only extremely cheap for those in grandfathered contracts.

A flat that cost 500-600K in Berlin would be rented out at 1000€ a month, that can’t increase more than the rent control allows. A mortgage would cost 3 times as much.

So you’d be better off renting and investing the deposit, the stamp duty, notary costs and the 2000€ you save each month in government bonds.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#89

Post by jorvi » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:26 PM UTC

Workaccount2 wrote: post #81

dragonelite wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think i saw a energy usage breakdown of the Netherlands supplied by our CBS central statistics bureau. Citizens living energy usage was around 14% of total energy usage of our country. Industry is by far the biggest energy user that is why people are talking about the deindustrialisation of Germany. Once companies germans could be proud of are moving to the US or China or getting closed off. I read about companies…

Of the many electronics we build at my job, one of them is a shoe box sized 5kW power supply that we sell to the railroads. Testing 10 of these units in one afternoon, by one tech in a closet sized room, uses more energy than my house uses in a month (yes, it can get very hot in that room, hah) And this is a very tiny project that's simply just easy recurring revenue. The bigger units that are being built and tested…

The same thing happens with recycling as well. I forgot the exact number, but if all US households recycled perfectly it would amount to something ridiculous like In general sometimes it gets really difficult to be the good citizen. Over here in The Netherlands, we have a special inheritance provision for family businesses, where below €1 000 000 in size you pay zero inheritance tax. Due to intense lobbying, it has now been extended to any company, except that companies above €10 000 000 have to pay 25% tax. So now it includes gigantic billion euro companies like Heineken.

Stuff like that makes me scratch my chin and think “fuck you, I am going to dodge and cheat any tax I can”. And I generally fall in the camp of “tax me to death and build great things with it.”

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#90

Post by jillesvangurp » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 3:35 PM UTC

thelastgallon wrote: post #80

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state Two thirds of energy from fossil fuels is wasted[1,2]. Renewables don't have wasted heat. Germany has been going green for a while, energy production does not give us a full picture. From: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-en... "This is shown in the chart below. It plots global final energy de…

Exactly, Germany's economy has grown quite a bit since the 1970s. It's energy usage is indeed trending down. Which means they are doing more with less energy. Back in the nineteen seventies they had inefficient cars, trucks, electricity generation (mostly coal based), and industry. Now they have a bigger economy and are not using a lot more energy. That's progress.

Michael Liebreich [1] refers to this as the primary energy fallacy in his recent articles on why reaching net zero is both hard and easy. He traces back the origins of this fallacy to the nineteen seventies when people started tracking the notion of primary energy during the oil crisis. The issue is that this is based on the gross energy usage, not the net useful output of that energy. Which with fossil fuels is pretty terrible (90%).

The other problem is that to this day, people base their policies on reports that still center on primary energy by agencies such as the IEA. It's a fallacy because any policy or plan based on the notion primary energy is off by about 3x in terms of actually needed energy. So, any plan that assumes replacing dirty energy gw fo gw with clean energy is technically bullshit.

A good example is petrol which has about 9kwh of energy per liter. A typical car might have about 50 liters of petrol. So, that's about 450 kwh. Or nearly half a mwh. Comparable EVs tend to have more modestly sized batteries of maybe 60-70kwh. Does the petrol car go 7 times further? Not even close. Most of that is transformed into heat and noise rather than movement. Primary energy of nearly half mwh. Useful energy under 100kwh. That's a 5x difference. That's why EVs can be cleaner even if you do charge them using coal powered electricity plants. You simply get more km per kwh.

[1] https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-net-zero-will-be-harde...