Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#61

Post by nradov » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:16 PM UTC

skrebbel wrote: post #30

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

A country’s energy production is driven mostly by demand. Your argument is “Germans use less energy, therefore it’s going badly”. I think this is a very outdated worldview, equating energy consumption with growth. There’s been lots of technology development across the board that lets people have the same comfort, or businesses the same production, with lower energy consumption. I don't think you can just assume that…

Has anyone figured out how to reduce the energy demand for refining aluminum or manufacturing ammonium nitrate? Efficiency gains in things like lighting, heating, and ground transport are nice but those only go so far. Heavy industry will always require enormous energy inputs.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#62

Post by dragonelite » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:17 PM UTC

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

I think i saw a energy usage breakdown of the Netherlands supplied by our CBS central statistics bureau. Citizens living energy usage was around 14% of total energy usage of our country. Industry is by far the biggest energy user that is why people are talking about the deindustrialisation of Germany. Once companies germans could be proud of are moving to the US or China or getting closed off.

I read about companies that had survived both world wars but this trade war with Russia and EU they didn't survived.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#63

Post by SiempreViernes » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:19 PM UTC

z7 wrote: post #13

hcfman wrote: post #2

I still don't see this as being a valid reason for disavantaging the planet. Like they did in the EU when the Belgiam politicial managed to get a tax imposed to make solar panels more expensive from Chain. One would expect Germanies business to be thriving now. But to make solar panels artificially more expensive for any reason at all is extreme folly for the planet if anyone cares about that.

What if higher energy prices in Germany lead to increased outsourcing to countries with fewer environmental regulations, causing a net negative environmental impact?

Still a win because the environment effects of solar manufacturing are basically local while the gains are global.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#64

Post by cedilla » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:20 PM UTC

kennethwolters wrote: post #32

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

I think the main point was that it is bad that Germany produces less energy over the decades. And that manufacturing in Germany might disappear as a consequence, which would be bad for Germany.

You have the causation exactly backwards. Most of Germany's heavy industry disappeared or went offshore since the 1970s, and that's why we don't produce nearly as much energy.

This process predates both the green energy movement and the nuclear power exit. Steel and aluminium manufacturing just needed more power than dozens of buildings filled with office workers.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#65

Post by Gravityloss » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:21 PM UTC

scotty79 wrote: post #14

When EU was faced with insurmountable competition in the global food market they set up common agricultural policy and straight up fueled their agriculture with tax money since then making EU number one global exporter of food and beverages. I wonder what obstacles there are for doing the exactly same in another key sector that is manufacturing means of energy production. And chip manufacturing in the future probably…

This makes total sense, up to a limit when it's about strategic resources. Food is certainly a strategic resource. But if you subsidize it so much that you export massively, that doesn't make sense.

Energy technology and chips certainly are also strategic resources.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#66

Post by SiempreViernes » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:24 PM UTC

scotty79 wrote: post #14

When EU was faced with insurmountable competition in the global food market they set up common agricultural policy and straight up fueled their agriculture with tax money since then making EU number one global exporter of food and beverages. I wonder what obstacles there are for doing the exactly same in another key sector that is manufacturing means of energy production. And chip manufacturing in the future probably…

The main obstacle is that the EU became deeply neoliberal in its thinking, judging state subsidies as worse than slave labour.

For example, when the US rolled out the cornucopia of state protectionism that is the IRA the EU has mainly responded by saying "actually, that's not very free marked of you USA".

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#67

Post by negative_zero » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:27 PM UTC

holgerschurig wrote: post #56

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s Well, any country. Did you know that Poland imported most of their fossil fuels from Russia also? Or, that today, Bulgaria still imports all (that is, 100% !!!) oil from Russia? People like to blame Germany, and they point to North Stream. Few people looked at a map of oil and gas pipelines of Europe ... noticing that MOST o…

Poland was legally obligated to purchase Russian gas based on an agreement signed in the early 90s.

The writing was on the wall for years. The difference is that Poland started constructing an alternative pipeline to Norway. Poland also appealed to an arbitration panel to have the Russian gas contract right to renewal clause removed (which it was successful in doing).

Germany meanwhile doubled down on Russian gas and built Nordstream 1 & 2.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#68

Post by negative_zero » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:29 PM UTC

sofixa wrote: post #46

lenerdenator wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s. Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways. To be fair, the US did much the same with China with regards to manufacturing. The US was begging its NATO allies across the Atlantic to have a…

> Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways This is hilarious because absolutely the same argument could be applied to most of Europe getting closely integrated economically with Germany through organisations such as the European Coal and Steel Community, European Economic Area, Eu…

Not really. Germany and it's predecessors have a strong history of rule of law. Russia does not.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#69

Post by mmarq » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:29 PM UTC

Rinzler89 wrote: post #33

dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment

Most people in Germany don’t buy the apartments they live in, because renting in Germany gives you more or less the same rights as owning a leasehold flat in the UK. If you really want to buy a flat, tax-wise it is more convenient to rent it out and rent another one to live in.

In many cities there are rent control mechanisms that make renting extremely cheaper than buying.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#70

Post by kennethwolters » Mon, Mar 25, 2024, 2:40 PM UTC

cedilla wrote: post #64

kennethwolters wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the main point was that it is bad that Germany produces less energy over the decades. And that manufacturing in Germany might disappear as a consequence, which would be bad for Germany.

You have the causation exactly backwards. Most of Germany's heavy industry disappeared or went offshore since the 1970s, and that's why we don't produce nearly as much energy. This process predates both the green energy movement and the nuclear power exit. Steel and aluminium manufacturing just needed more power than dozens of buildings filled with office workers.

The US deindustrialised more intensely than Germany (think of rust belt), yet it seems energy production almost doubled since then [0]. I think energy production is more a function of the economy than of industrialisation.

And in the special case of Germany, the relatively small amount of industry that remained domestic kept Germany relevant globally. If Germany looses that, it becomes a fully service-based economy which the anglo-states are much better at (think finance, IT).

[0] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/