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Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

nytimes.com

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Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#391

Post by throwaway2990 »

rhelz wrote: post #332
markhahn wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also interesting that Intel made some specific bad technical choices. (ie, not investing in EUV, assuming SAQP would work forever, ignoring the consequences of everything being power-limited...) This kind of decision is hard, because it's a technical-economic tradeoff, and the latter is more voodoo than math. And that's not even addressing whether you get surprised by things like the LLM boom...

You say: > It's also interesting that Intel made some specific bad technical choices. That's like saying Saudi Arabia made some bad policy decisions. If you are in Saudi Arabia, nothing has a higher return on investment than petroleum. If you invest in anything else, you are leaving money---A LOT of money--on the table. The result is that capital is drained out of any other business, and the country gets so dependent…

> and the country gets so dependent on just one industry that when the oil runs out, it is a major crisis.

Good thing we aren’t even slightly close to ever running out.

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#392

Post by quantum_state »

Nifty3929 wrote: post #267
dietmtnview wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US citizen, it's pretty wild to live through. Socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for the rest of us.

Unfortunately no, it's socialism for us too - just the wrong end of it. The government and their friends are the socialism winners, the rest of us are the socialism losers. But we do it to ourselves at the ballot box every time, and very reliably.

These things are all done in the name of national security… feels like lots of fluff… politicians’ way to get us tax payers to fund their friends …

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#393

Post by demondemidi »

JonChesterfield wrote: post #311
xyst wrote: post #292

Something about giving a multibillion dollar company government grants rubs me the wrong way. Most of the money probably goes into hiring useless consulting firms to “do the leg work”.

Nah, this is intel. They'll spend it on a dividend.

More likely a stock buyback.

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#394

Post by demondemidi »

randerson wrote: post #115

Intel could have funded this themselves many times over if they'd reinvested their profits instead of paying huge buybacks and dividends.

They DID reinvest.

Intel built D1X and it took forever to get working and even longer to become profitable (if it even is yet). It was a 10 year 10 billion dollar project.

D1X was like their entire capex budget.

They just flew too close to the sun and imploded with too many technical challenges.

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#396

Post by gamepsys »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #338
gamepsys wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure if this was your intent, but it sounds like you're describing the world as it actually works. This was in fact my intent. I would just like to highlight there are alternative ways besides grants to encourage Intel to open US based manufacturing. Ultimately it's the tax payer that is funding this grant, so it's important they feel like they are getting a good deal. I think it's also telling that Intel d…

I'm curious what you think it is telling? What are the alternative incentives?

1. It's telling because if Intel thought this was a good investment then they would have made it without the grants. The stock buybacks show they had the cash to do it recently.

2. Alternatives to giving grants: Tax credits, low interest loans, import duty, law, executive action, threaten anti-trust lawsuit, purchasing shares, leverage intelligence agencies, nationalize. The most straightforward way would be to extend the regulations around exporting critical technologies to make it unfeasible for new chips to be manufactured overseas. There's pros/cons for all choices.

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#397

Post by laborcontract »

eitally wrote: post #156
rhelz wrote: post #132

WRT to lack of a skilled workforce, here is an interesting anecdote. I remember back in the late 90's, Intel had to fire most line workers in their FABS, and hire people with Ph.D.'s in solid-state physics. I actually knew one of these people who were fired: She was our housecleaner. And--like the supper-smart garbage man of the Dilbert Cartoons, she was very smart. Smarter than me. I know because she helped me solve…

That's a silly anecdote and I have a hard time believing chip fab line workers are too much different from those in other types of high-tech (where I spent 15 years working on test automation & quality systems). Some smart folks, for sure, but almost zero roles required even actual engineering background. A lot of management had strong technical education, but the vast majority of line workers are just following simp…

You're missing the broader point here which is that TSMC pays roughly $50k/year for people with these skills. Sure, you may be able to find the talent pool, but at what price?

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#398

Post by Spooky23 »

rhelz wrote: post #132

WRT to lack of a skilled workforce, here is an interesting anecdote. I remember back in the late 90's, Intel had to fire most line workers in their FABS, and hire people with Ph.D.'s in solid-state physics. I actually knew one of these people who were fired: She was our housecleaner. And--like the supper-smart garbage man of the Dilbert Cartoons, she was very smart. Smarter than me. I know because she helped me solve…

Hardware people get boned.

I worked at a non-semiconductor tenant company in a semiconductor research campus/facility.

Parking lots tell the story. There was a pecking order for the lots, which made it easy to classify. The best off working people were the trades guys. The plumbers and electricians were high-skilled and well paid. Like guys commuting 2,000 miles and buying a second $90k F-250 to drive around town in.

The bigshots were Teslas, BMWs, big SUVs. There were a few corvettes and a Ferrari.

The Fab engineers and workers were all driving old Hondas and Hyundais.

One of my good friends from high school was a mechanical engineer at IBM and a master at some super-critical process for mainframes. They moved to a different architecture and his entire team was just nuked from orbit before they even knew what was happening. He was selling real estate for awhile and eventually got back into engineering.

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#399

Post by tyingq »

rhelz wrote: post #317
cogman10 wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Assembling a motherboard is to semiconductor fabs as flying a toy drone is to landing a Boeing 747. I disagree. I live next to a fab and have coworkers that have worked the fabs. Humans in fabs are taken out of the loop as much as possible. That's because when dealing with nanoscale structures, human error is simply too common. One of my coworkers worked at the fab during a period where they had humans running the…

> Humans in fabs are taken out of the loop as much as possible. This. We are talking about Atom scale here. I have as much admiration for skilled mechanics as the next guy. I heard about a lathe operator at Patek Phillip who could turn an arbor to within 1 micron precision, just by listening to the pitch the cutting tool made when trimming it down. And when chip features were on the micron scale, humans in the loop m…

There are still, though, lots of working fabs at much larger process sizes. And some for things that won't ever modernize to a smaller one. Like parts that handle lots of power, or chips for RF purposes, etc.

Re: Intel to Receive $8.5B in Grants to Build Chip Plants

#400

Post by Spooky23 »

ulfw wrote: post #382
mfer wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This award isn't about innovation, the best way to do things, or job requirements. This about supply chain security and national defense. So many of our components are made overseas and under governments who are not close allies. This is in order to operate things in our country. When you have the FABs in the US and under US control you can handle international foreign policy and the security of the nation differentl…

What governments that aren't your allies? Chips are produced in Taiwan, in Korea, in Japan. In that order. Which of those governments is not allied with the US of A?

Taiwan is a sacrificial ally. We support them, but don't acknowledge them formally.
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