241–250 of 340 posts
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As someone who has used Ubuntu in the past and has now moved onto greener pastures, I appreciate everything Canonical and Ubuntu have done for the Linux community but there are many better options today and Canonical is already far from the company it once used to be.
I hate it when people say stuff like this and then don’t express their opinions on the better alternatives.
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That's exactly what I'm saying below - PE is still very high, hence projecting the past growth into the future. But the scale changed a bit. A 37 PE ratio is extremely high by historical standards - this was reserved for very promising, small startups. Not for 2T companies. I know this got distorted in the past 15 years by abnormally low interest rates, but sooner or later it will come back to something that makes se…
People need to stop focusing on “historical standards”. For better or worse, retail entering the market en masse (often with options trading) has created a new standard. The market over the last 10 years is the new normal, the smart people have worked this out and are making huge returns. TSLA at its peak had a WAY higher PE than NVDA does now, and NVDA is just as popular, with even stronger fundamentals.
For us, older folks, we've seen this 'new normal' several times already - it will end up as usual. There are no free lunches and as it appears to me that have not entered any permanently high plateau.
It's even quite funny that ~100 years ago, we've had the previous big pandemic, and the biggest stock market crash. Epidemic of this century is done, now waiting for the second part !
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They are priced as if they are the only ones who are capable of creating chips that can crunch LLM algos. But AMD, Google, Intel, and even Apple are also capable. Apple is in talks with Google to bring Gemini to the iPhone, and it will obviously also be on android phones. So almost every phone on earth is poised to be using Gemini in the near future, and Gemini runs entirely on Google's own custom hardware (which is…
This seems as good a place as any to be Corrected by the Internet, so... correct me if I'm wrong. Making a graphics chip that is as good as Nvidia: Very difficult. Huge moat, huge effort, lots of barriers, lots of APIs, lot of experience, lots of decades of experience to overcome. Making something that can run a NN: Much, much easier. I'd guess, start-up level feasible. The math is much simpler. There's a lot of it,…
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People need to stop focusing on “historical standards”. For better or worse, retail entering the market en masse (often with options trading) has created a new standard. The market over the last 10 years is the new normal, the smart people have worked this out and are making huge returns. TSLA at its peak had a WAY higher PE than NVDA does now, and NVDA is just as popular, with even stronger fundamentals.
For better or worse, human psychology doesn't change that much - those historical standards very much apply today. For us, older folks, we've seen this 'new normal' several times already - it will end up as usual. There are no free lunches and as it appears to me that have not entered any permanently high plateau. It's even quite funny that ~100 years ago, we've had the previous big pandemic, and the biggest stock ma…
To clarify, I’m not saying NVDA won’t crash from here or bear markets no longer exist. I’m simply saying that historic PE valuations are a poor metric for assessing the potential of a stock in todays market conditions.
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How can 4 bits possibly be enough? Are intermediate calculations done at a higher width and then converted down back to FP4?
There are research papers where even 1 bit (not floating point) was enough, with some quality loss. 4 bits is effectively 16 different float point numbers - 8 positive, 8 negative, no zero and no NaN/inf. 1 bit for sign and 3 bits for exponent, 0 bits for mantissa, mantissa is implied to be 4. It’s logarithmic - representing numbers in the range from -4^3 to 4^3, smallest numbers are 4^-3.
I like how you specified that it's not floating point.
My take from being at the keynote and the content I've seen so far at the conference is that Nvidia's is moving up the stack (like all good hardware vendors are prone to do). Obviously they are going to keep doing bigger. But the takeaway for me is that they are building "docker for llms" - NIM. They are building a container system where you can download/buy(?) NIMs and easily deploy them on their hardware. Going to…
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Doesn’t matter how good your in-house tech team was, your company still outsourced it to cloud infra. That’s what Nvidia faces. Doesn’t matter how good the current in-house teams are using direct hardware, the trend in corporate is shift to a vendor (Google/AWS). Nvidia can watch this inevitable shift or get ready to offer itself as a platform too.
I get it, the service model always shines the brightest in the eye of the revenue calculator. But I have immediate skepticism they’ll be able to execute at a competitive level. Their core competency has always been manufacture and production, not service-based things. It’s a big rock to push up a tall hill.
It feels like reading that setting up something like Facebook would be extremely challenging for a company like SpaceX.
> “Nvidia … is becoming less of a mercenary chip provider and more of a platform provider, like Microsoft or Apple, on which other companies can build software. I can understand from a growth perspective why it’s more profitable for Nvidia if it can become more of a platform service for AI. However, that’s difficult to balance that and partnerships the company already has with AWS and Microsoft. I’d expect to see som…
I think they're planning for a world where half their customers (hyperscalers) just use GPUs and CUDA while the other half (the long tail) use more profitable, higher-level parts of the platform. They don't have the leverage to force customers one way or the other. It would be easier to just sell GPUs, but they know that sophisticated customers can switch to other chips while the platform provides lock-in for smaller…
NVIDIA is not entering an empty marketplace here. Also there's already enough know-how to make things run on cloud, OpenStack, HPC, etc.
Unless they make things very difficult for independent platforms, they can't force their way in that much, from my perspective.
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It would be kind of genius for Nvidia to "open" the CUDA APIs (which have already been unofficially reverse engineered anyway) but not the code. Maybe they'd also officially support HIP and SYCL. Maybe they could open SXM after all competitors have already committed to OAM. They'd create the appearance of opening up while giving up very little.
By "Opening Up" they cement their leadership position. AI frameworks are already targeting CL, SPIR-V, etc. The low level details will fade and so will Nvidias api dominance. The MI300 smokes the H100 yet here we are.
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I don't understand AMD in this. Isn't it insanity that they're not throwing all they've got at their software stack?
You know what happens to companies that panic and throw all their resources into knee-jerk software projects? I don't, but I'd predict it is ugly. Adding more people to a bad project generally makes it worse. The issue that AMD has is they had a long period where they clearly had no idea what they were doing. You could tell just from looking at websites, CUDA pretty much immediately gets to "here is a library for FFT…
It makes perfect sense that, organisationally, they were focused on that battle. If you remember the Athlon days, AMD beat Intel before, but briefly. It didn't last. This time it looks like they beat Intel and have had the focus to stay. Intel will come back and beat them some cycles, but there is no collapse on the horizon.
So it makes sense that they started looking at nVidia in the last year or so. Of course nVidia has amassed an obscene war chest in the meantime...