> My prediction is eventually there will be anti-trust ligitation, they will be required to open the CUDA standard, after which AMD will become a competitor. If AMD isn't a competitor before government intervention, I don't the government forcing nvidia to open up CUDA changes much. CUDA's moat isn't due to some secret sauce - nvidia put in the developer hours; and if AMDs CUDA implementation is still broken, people…
I don't understand AMD in this. Isn't it insanity that they're not throwing all they've got at their software stack?
Hardware people don't get along very well with software people.
> My prediction is eventually there will be anti-trust ligitation, they will be required to open the CUDA standard, after which AMD will become a competitor. If AMD isn't a competitor before government intervention, I don't the government forcing nvidia to open up CUDA changes much. CUDA's moat isn't due to some secret sauce - nvidia put in the developer hours; and if AMDs CUDA implementation is still broken, people…
I don't understand AMD in this. Isn't it insanity that they're not throwing all they've got at their software stack?
> “Nvidia … is becoming less of a mercenary chip provider and more of a platform provider, like Microsoft or Apple, on which other companies can build software. I can understand from a growth perspective why it’s more profitable for Nvidia if it can become more of a platform service for AI. However, that’s difficult to balance that and partnerships the company already has with AWS and Microsoft. I’d expect to see som…
I think they're planning for a world where half their customers (hyperscalers) just use GPUs and CUDA while the other half (the long tail) use more profitable, higher-level parts of the platform. They don't have the leverage to force customers one way or the other. It would be easier to just sell GPUs, but they know that sophisticated customers can switch to other chips while the platform provides lock-in for smaller…
Doesn’t matter how good your in-house tech team was, your company still outsourced it to cloud infra.
That’s what Nvidia faces. Doesn’t matter how good the current in-house teams are using direct hardware, the trend in corporate is shift to a vendor (Google/AWS).
Nvidia can watch this inevitable shift or get ready to offer itself as a platform too.
My take from being at the keynote and the content I've seen so far at the conference is that Nvidia's is moving up the stack (like all good hardware vendors are prone to do).
Obviously they are going to keep doing bigger. But the takeaway for me is that they are building "docker for llms" - NIM. They are building a container system where you can download/buy(?) NIMs and easily deploy them on their hardware. Going to be fun to watch what this does to all the AI startups...
Please do not give them this idea. Ubuntu is actually a pretty great daily driver desktop Linux, and I'd hate for that to lose priority and disappear. I'm not a fan of what happened to the Red Hat ecosystem for exactly the same reasons.
As someone who has used Ubuntu in the past and has now moved onto greener pastures, I appreciate everything Canonical and Ubuntu have done for the Linux community but there are many better options today and Canonical is already far from the company it once used to be.
I hate it when people say stuff like this and then don’t express their opinions on the better alternatives.
I think they're planning for a world where half their customers (hyperscalers) just use GPUs and CUDA while the other half (the long tail) use more profitable, higher-level parts of the platform. They don't have the leverage to force customers one way or the other. It would be easier to just sell GPUs, but they know that sophisticated customers can switch to other chips while the platform provides lock-in for smaller…
Doesn’t matter how good your in-house tech team was, your company still outsourced it to cloud infra. That’s what Nvidia faces. Doesn’t matter how good the current in-house teams are using direct hardware, the trend in corporate is shift to a vendor (Google/AWS). Nvidia can watch this inevitable shift or get ready to offer itself as a platform too.
I get it, the service model always shines the brightest in the eye of the revenue calculator. But I have immediate skepticism they’ll be able to execute at a competitive level. Their core competency has always been manufacture and production, not service-based things. It’s a big rock to push up a tall hill.
My prediction is eventually there will be anti-trust ligitation, they will be required to open the CUDA standard, after which AMD will become a competitor. NVIDIA could voluntarily open the standard to avoid this ligitation if they wanted to, though, and IMO it would be the smart thing to do, but almost every corporation in history has chosen the ligitation instead.
It would be kind of genius for Nvidia to "open" the CUDA APIs (which have already been unofficially reverse engineered anyway) but not the code. Maybe they'd also officially support HIP and SYCL. Maybe they could open SXM after all competitors have already committed to OAM. They'd create the appearance of opening up while giving up very little.
By "Opening Up" they cement their leadership position. AI frameworks are already targeting CL, SPIR-V, etc. The low level details will fade and so will Nvidias api dominance.
As someone who has used Ubuntu in the past and has now moved onto greener pastures, I appreciate everything Canonical and Ubuntu have done for the Linux community but there are many better options today and Canonical is already far from the company it once used to be.
I hate it when people say stuff like this and then don’t express their opinions on the better alternatives.
As someone who has used Ubuntu in the past and has now moved onto greener pastures, I appreciate everything Canonical and Ubuntu have done for the Linux community but there are many better options today and Canonical is already far from the company it once used to be.
what would your top suggestions be for server or desktop, instead of ubuntu? Arch (too unstable for server?), Silverblue?
Recently installed PopOS on my desktop. That is currently my top suggestion as an Ubuntu alternative
NVDA's forward PE is ~37, about what it has been for the past ~5 years I've been tracking that. So it's not overpriced based on that metric. If you're convinced the stock is that overvalued, go short some or, if you like to live dangerously, buy some long-term put options (don't be an idiot and buy short-term options.) I have no idea if NVDA is like Cisco Systems in 2000, or if it's something unique. What I am aware…
That's exactly what I'm saying below - PE is still very high, hence projecting the past growth into the future. But the scale changed a bit. A 37 PE ratio is extremely high by historical standards - this was reserved for very promising, small startups. Not for 2T companies. I know this got distorted in the past 15 years by abnormally low interest rates, but sooner or later it will come back to something that makes se…
People need to stop focusing on “historical standards”. For better or worse, retail entering the market en masse (often with options trading) has created a new standard. The market over the last 10 years is the new normal, the smart people have worked this out and are making huge returns. TSLA at its peak had a WAY higher PE than NVDA does now, and NVDA is just as popular, with even stronger fundamentals.