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OpenAI and Elon Musk

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Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US were much less a factor in WW1 than WW2. If anything, the US entry forced the Entente's hands to start the planned 1919 offensive early in 1918 and ending the war. The USA did not contribute a large amlint of troops, relative to the armies already deployed, nor did they contribute significant amounts of gear. Lend-Lease was a WW2 thing, in WW1 the majority of US tanks for example were actually French. The US w…

Britain would have lost WW1 and WW2 without massive US support. The WW1 Germans were not amazed by British soldiers' supplies and health. They were amazed by the US soldiers' supplies and health. > Finally, the US war economy of WW2 was decidedly not free FDR mobilized existing free market businesses to convert to war production. It was not a collective, nor was it forced labor. For example, Ford switched from produc…

This is basically all wrong, except the Ford switching to planes and tanks bit.

And you are aware, that France was a major biligerent in WW1, stopped Germany at Verdun and held more than half the Western Front, sucessfully after the race to the sea ended, together with Britain, for years before the US showed up?

Or that the Ententene, without significant US participation, won the strategic victory that defeated Germany during the Kaiserschlacht, the last German offensive in the West? This victory allowed Franch and Britain to start the 1919 offensive already in 1918, the one that ended with German surrender. In fact, they started early, in part, to avoid the impression that it was the US who "won" WW1. Little did they know how WW2 would play out and influence puplic opinion.

Also, being impressed by something doesn't mean being defeated by it... I know the meme, and that is all it is, a meme. And a lazy one at that.

During WW2, economies in the UK, the US and the USSR had a lot in common. Mainly them being not free to choose what they produced. The degrees of freedom regarding how it was produced differed, but that is not what defines an economy as free or not. And please tell me you don't think the USSR functioned without money? People were paid to produce stuff, they didn't have the likes of Ford getting rich building war material so.

Edit: I forgot one theatre in WW1, the Ottoman Empire. Arguably at least as important for Britain than the Western Front, and there the US didn't participate at all. And still Britain won.

This is not to downplay the role the US played in WW2, far from it. Projecting this role to WW1 is just plain wrong so, and only feeds into a whole bunch of wrong preconceptions about WW1. I partialy blame Cold War propaganda for this, that downplayed the Soviet role in WW2, for obvious reasons, and over played the US one. Regarding WW2, this narrative is finally changing, for WW1 not so much. And I don't like factually wrong narratives for historical events.

Edit 2: Just read the first half of FDRs 1945 State of the Union during my lunch break. Not sure how you can consider a national service obligation, in parallel to the normal recruiting of workers, to be equal to forced labour...

You really should look up what real forced labour looked, and looks, like.

Also, the same guy, FDR, who called for "forced labour" and was a "friend of Stalin" was in charge of the war economy. And yet, you claim the war economy led by him was a free market. One of those things is not true, I'd say.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Collectivism involves deciding for others. That may be true, but that's not sufficient to define collectivism. There are many other forms of societal structures where "deciding for others" exists as well. Unless you mean to lump all these together, and say that companies and tyranny for example are the same as collectivism? > If it’s fully voluntary it’s individualism. If I _voluntarily_ decide to join a "collectiv…

> If I _voluntarily_ decide to join a "collective", am I individualist or collectivist? An individualist, if you are free to leave it at any time. There's nothing wrong with forming a collective in the US, I think like 20,000 of them have been formed over the last 240 years. You don't hear about them much because they all failed. You're free to start a collective anytime in the US and try to make it work. Isn't freed…

Sorry, that question was purely rhetorical.

That divide between individual and collective as stated above was very sketchy, and I merely wanted to indicate that.

If one take the strict definition of individualist and collective from a dictionary (well, which one, to begin with?), of course they are opposite, just looking at the idea conveyed by the word radicals (ie individualist -> individual, vs collective).

As always, we all start talking about things without first defining the terms we use to discuss those things, and of course confusion, anger and frustration ensue.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#493
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Tools for me, but not for thee."

When the tools are (believed to be) more dangerous than nuclear weapons, and the "thee" is potentially irresponsible and/or antagonists, then... yes? This is a valid (and moral) position.

If so, then they shouldn’t have started down that path by refusing to open source 1.5B for a long time while citing safety concerns. It’s obvious that it never posed any kind of threat, and to date no language model has. None have even been close to threatening.

The comparison to nuclear weapons has always been mistaken.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#495
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Tools for me, but not for thee."

When the tools are (believed to be) more dangerous than nuclear weapons, and the "thee" is potentially irresponsible and/or antagonists, then... yes? This is a valid (and moral) position.

It makes people feel mistrusted (which they are, and in general should be.) it’s a bit challenging to overcome that.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like you're just describing why our watch-and-see approach cannot handle a hard AGI/ASI takeoff. A system that first exhibits some questionable danger, then achieves complete victory a few days later, simply cannot be managed by an incremental approach. We pretty much have to pray that we get a few dangerous-but-not-too-dangerous "practice takeoffs" first, and if anything those will probably just make us th…

If there’s no advancements in alignment before takeoff, is there really any remote hope of doing anything? You’d need to legally halt ai progress everywhere in the world and carefully monitor large compute clusters or someone could still do it. Honestly I think we should put tons of money into the control problem, but otherwise just gamble it.

Funnily enough, I’m currently reading the 1995 Sci-fi novel "The Star Fraction", where exactly this scenario exists. On the ground, it’s Stasis, a paramilitary force that intercedes when certain forbidden technologies (including AI) are developed. In space, there’s the Space Faction who are ready to cripple all infrastructure on earth (by death lasering everything from orbit) if they discover the appearance of AGI.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Star_Fraction

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#497
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the tools are (believed to be) more dangerous than nuclear weapons, and the "thee" is potentially irresponsible and/or antagonists, then... yes? This is a valid (and moral) position.

If so, then they shouldn’t have started down that path by refusing to open source 1.5B for a long time while citing safety concerns. It’s obvious that it never posed any kind of threat, and to date no language model has. None have even been close to threatening. The comparison to nuclear weapons has always been mistaken.

Oh I'm talking about the ideal, not what they're actually doing.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#498
post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If so, then they shouldn’t have started down that path by refusing to open source 1.5B for a long time while citing safety concerns. It’s obvious that it never posed any kind of threat, and to date no language model has. None have even been close to threatening. The comparison to nuclear weapons has always been mistaken.

Oh I'm talking about the ideal, not what they're actually doing.

Sadly one can’t be separated from the other. I’d agree if it was true. But there’s no evidence it ever has been.

One thought experiment is to imagine someone developing software with a promise to open source the benign parts, then withholding most of it for business reasons while citing aliens as a concern.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#499
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh! In that case, let me ask: where have you ever seen DKIM signatures being provided on a public blog post/press release?

Nowhere, and I criticize it every time. I've even gone to the lengths of trying to find DKIM keys for published emails in the past[1]. But at least those emails were un-redacted. To spell that out for you: in a highly-charged, highly-contentious political setting, emails were published un-redacted and theoretically verifiable with DKIM. No such possibility exists for OpenAI's blog post. [1] https://news.ycombinator.c…

What benefit would that bring, considering the points raised earlier?

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Email might already be 'culturally dead' though. I guess my nephew might have an email address for the occasional password recovery, but the idea of actually communicating over email with other humans might be completely alien to him ;) Similar in my current job btw.

Ok, I get how one might use a variety of other tools for informal communication, I don't really use e-mail for that any more either, but I'm curious, what else can you possibly use for work ? With the requirement that it must be easy to back up and transfer (for yourself as well as the organization), so any platforms are immediately out of question.

I'm not saying that the alternatives are better than email (e.g. at my job, Slack has replaced email for communication, and Gitlab/JIRA/Confluence/GoogleDocs is used for everything that needs to persist). The focus has shifted away from email for communication (for better or worse).
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