Live data from Hacker News

SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

arstechnica.com

401–410 of 420 posts

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#401
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add a couple hours for the trip between town and pad, security and so on. Still it's 3-4 hours.

I don't think there are many cities that have suitable launch sites near them. It's unlikely they'll ever get approval to launch over populated areas, or even from most populated coastal locations. Also, the issue of getting boosters to all of these destinations seems like a problem. Planes don't split in two and have half return to the launch site but Starships do. So you could land the upper stage in Tokyo, but the…

Off shore platforms. Most large cities are on or near an ocean or large lake.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#402
post #5

This is good. Flight 1 had 63 corrective actions and it took 5 months to complete the report. This one took 3 months and had 17 corrective actions. They'll get to orbit this year for sure

I love that Superheavy/Starship can be profitable even if they are expendable.

Considering the reusable Falcon 9 costs more than twice as much as launching a Soyuz despite the reusable components. It's a bit of a boondoggle, but I am so glad we have national capacity for launching payloads.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#403
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The history where for the last 400 years the were part of the same country and share close history for 2000 years and only a tiny amount of time they were fully separated. They speak essentially the same language (often the very same) and use the same national origin story and the Russian Orthodox Church was literally representing people from both sides of the border. There are tons of families and other connections…

Russian and Ukrainian have similar roots, but are not "essentially the same language." The "national origin story" (unless you mean the 1917 Revolution) is nothing like how the two countries were created. Mexico and the US have "tons of families and other connections over the (sic) boarder as well." The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Sovie…

I am talking about Kievan Rus when I am talking about the 'origin story'.

If we like it or not, national myths are and always have been an integral part to nationalism. So what different countries consider their origin myth does matter. Just as religion and language matter. And of course shared history.

> The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Soviet cronies were running Ukraine to plunder its assets.

This was literally my point. So you had the Soviet Union, witch was a country. And now different parts of that Union are fighting one another. Both countries were controlled by the former elites of the previous country.

The collapse of the Soviet Union literally was an Ukrainian/Russian independence movement based on the politics of the elites at the time. And the war now could be described as a independence war again.

My point here is that its simply isn't a strict defined what all these different things are. You can call it a civil war, and independence war or an imperial war. All of them are correct depending on how you look at it.

> The current conflict (2014 to now) is nothing like a civil war.

What we call things depends on how you look at it.

Consider the situation in Yemen for the past 35 years (the same amount of time as the Ukraine exists). You can call it a civil war, an independence war and many other things.

You seem to be attached to perfectly rigidly designed categories of what everything is. The real world just isn't that simple and fits nice into those categories. You seem to be against calling it a civil war between you interpreted what I sad as it being a 'Ukrainian Civil War' but you don't like that because the 'Ukrainian rebels' are outside supported and would normally not actually have a chance. Guess what, that is true in many civil wars.

But whatever, I wasn't even saying 'Ukrainian Civil War' anyway. I was just calling it a Civil War because of the extreme close historical connect, simply put for the last 400+ years what is now Ukraine and what is now Russia were one country. That to me is by far enough to consider it a civil war.

During the Soviet period, 'in theory' the different members were independent and just part of a voluntary union. But we know this wasn't the case because the communist elites really controlled both governments and the party was really in control of the whole thing. And while the Soviet Union went away formally, 'in theory' the two countries are now fully separated and independent, but in actual reality this was never really the case.

A civil war is not just a situation where you have a international recognized country as defined by the UN at the current moment, splitting into two groups fighting each other (with nobody from outside involved) until one wins and then are are reunified the same way.

> Oh and regarding England and Scotland, well, many Scots would like to leave the UK. That wouldn't be a civil war either, but an independence movement.

Speaking in actual realist terms England and Scotland don't actually exist, its one country called the UK who had a unified foreign policy for many 100s of years. If different parts of the UK fight each other for whatever reason, calling that a civil war is totally reasonable.

The Southern States were also an independence movement but yet somehow its called a Civil War. Independence movements often lead to civil wars. Literally a leading cause of Civil War. To say 'it wouldn't be Civil War but an Independence movement' makes no sense what so ever. Its would obviously be both.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#404
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russian and Ukrainian have similar roots, but are not "essentially the same language." The "national origin story" (unless you mean the 1917 Revolution) is nothing like how the two countries were created. Mexico and the US have "tons of families and other connections over the (sic) boarder as well." The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Sovie…

I am talking about Kievan Rus when I am talking about the 'origin story'. If we like it or not, national myths are and always have been an integral part to nationalism. So what different countries consider their origin myth does matter. Just as religion and language matter. And of course shared history. > The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex…

The Soviet Union, witch was a country

An empire, not a country.

Which dissolved itself peacefully enough and with no outside prodding of any kind on 26 December 1991. In the process, fully and unequivocally recognizing the complete sovereign independence of all of its constituent members at the time -- along with their inviolable borders -- including Ukraine.

End of story, full stop.

This idea you have that it's basically "still one country, hashing things out" is seriously misinformed nonsense.

Kievan Rus

And the idea that anyone, anywhere should be fighting a full-scale war in 2024 based on (or "explained" by) events of the 9th-13th centuries is, by all objective standards -- batshit crazy.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am talking about Kievan Rus when I am talking about the 'origin story'. If we like it or not, national myths are and always have been an integral part to nationalism. So what different countries consider their origin myth does matter. Just as religion and language matter. And of course shared history. > The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex…

The Soviet Union, witch was a country An empire, not a country. Which dissolved itself peacefully enough and with no outside prodding of any kind on 26 December 1991. In the process, fully and unequivocally recognizing the complete sovereign independence of all of its constituent members at the time -- along with their inviolable borders -- including Ukraine. End of story, full stop. This idea you have that it's basi…

They're just spouting the various Russian justifications for the invasion. It gets tiresome when they can't even agree that Ukraine is a "real" country and that Russia is completely at fault.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#406
post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well what is interesting is not how well the aggregate does, but how much better it does than individuals. After all if individuals can predict stuff consistently then what does the prediction market add?

My understanding is that the market, which rewards and punishes your predictions is what makes one a better predictor.

Right, but that doesn't do anything unless there's life-savings-amounts of money on the line such that anyone is incentivized to actually try. And even when people are incentivized, just look at the stock market for clear evidence that it doesn't work: a market doesn't magically make people good at things; people screw up and lose bets and go bankrupt all the time. Sure some of the decently-competent banks and hedge funds don't---but there is no reason to think there are any actors close to that sophisticated on a prediction market.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there are many cities that have suitable launch sites near them. It's unlikely they'll ever get approval to launch over populated areas, or even from most populated coastal locations. Also, the issue of getting boosters to all of these destinations seems like a problem. Planes don't split in two and have half return to the launch site but Starships do. So you could land the upper stage in Tokyo, but the…

You'd probably have to launch from international waters, after taking a boat/helicopter. >Also, the issue of getting boosters to all of these destinations seems like a problem You launch them, presumably.

You're not truly wealthy until you have boosters staged at your vacation homes.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of what SpaceX has already achieved has sounded similarly, but costs were so astronomical to begin with that it didn't make any immediate difference to most people. So for instance the Space Shuttle was only retired in 2011. After all was said and done it ended up costing $1.6 billion per launch - about $30,000 per pound of payload. The Falcon Heavy costs about $0.1 billion (in reusable mode) and brought the cos…

That link compares a cargo Dragon mission to ISS against a Shuttle launch. Did a Shuttle mission have more overhead because of the people on board? I'm not clear if the Shuttle cost is just the launch, or the whole manned mission with all the astronaut preparation.

That was just the cost of launching cargo. I found a report from NASA on the exact costs here. [1]

---

Space Shuttle - $54,500/kg to orbit, $93,400/kg to the ISS

Falcon 9 - $2,720/kg to orbit, $23,300/kg to the ISS

---

The Falcon Heavy is about $1500/kg to orbit. Note the units as we're swapping between kg and pounds in this thread pretty regularly.

[1] - https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#409
post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Soviet Union, witch was a country An empire, not a country. Which dissolved itself peacefully enough and with no outside prodding of any kind on 26 December 1991. In the process, fully and unequivocally recognizing the complete sovereign independence of all of its constituent members at the time -- along with their inviolable borders -- including Ukraine. End of story, full stop. This idea you have that it's basi…

They're just spouting the various Russian justifications for the invasion. It gets tiresome when they can't even agree that Ukraine is a "real" country and that Russia is completely at fault.

Don't put words in my mouth. I have been studying Russian history as a hobby for decades. Ukraine is a fully independent country. I am against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And I am pro-supporting Ukraine against Russia. That has nothing to with what I said.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#410
post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're just spouting the various Russian justifications for the invasion. It gets tiresome when they can't even agree that Ukraine is a "real" country and that Russia is completely at fault.

Don't put words in my mouth. I have been studying Russian history as a hobby for decades. Ukraine is a fully independent country. I am against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And I am pro-supporting Ukraine against Russia. That has nothing to with what I said.

I have been studying Russian history as a hobby for decades

If you've been studying the topic for "decades", and then you say things like "they speak essentially the same language" (in reference to Russians and Ukrainians) -- then I don't know what to tell you.

Post reply on HN