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SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

arstechnica.com

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Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#391

Post by rainworld »

greedo wrote: post #381
panick21_ wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The history where for the last 400 years the were part of the same country and share close history for 2000 years and only a tiny amount of time they were fully separated. They speak essentially the same language (often the very same) and use the same national origin story and the Russian Orthodox Church was literally representing people from both sides of the border. There are tons of families and other connections…

Russian and Ukrainian have similar roots, but are not "essentially the same language." The "national origin story" (unless you mean the 1917 Revolution) is nothing like how the two countries were created. Mexico and the US have "tons of families and other connections over the (sic) boarder as well." The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Sovie…

Moscow uses some proxy forces from the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, but the majority of forces are from the Russian Federation.

What strange talk is this. They annexed them, period. 17 months ago.

If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately.

In 2024 (which is now) there is precisely one proxy force in this war. That would collapse immediately without support. You can’t spell its name without “rain”.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#392

Post by khokhol »

khokhol wrote: post #379
greedo wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A civil war. Right. Completely displaying your ignorance of the region's history.

For the last 400 [barely 300 actually] years the were part of the same country The same Empire , you mean. Are you saying that all empires that ever existed need to be maintained into perpetuity? They speak essentially the same language Absolutely not the case. Are Spanish and Portuguese "essentially the same language?" And use the same national origin story Nope. I think its totally fair to call it a civil war. You…

^ Was meant to be attached to the sibling comment (rather than to its current parent), obviously.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#393

Post by falcor84 »

ajkjk wrote: post #309
bumby wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does Metaculus make such predictions? I assume it can't be in the reliability engineering fashion used in industry.

They make it up. But everyone assumes it means something because it's an average of a bunch of people making it up.

No need to assume, you can check the prediction history and see that they generally do quite well. You also look at the histories of individual predictors' profiles and see some with consistent successes.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#394

Post by ajkjk »

falcor84 wrote: post #393
ajkjk wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make it up. But everyone assumes it means something because it's an average of a bunch of people making it up.

No need to assume, you can check the prediction history and see that they generally do quite well. You also look at the histories of individual predictors' profiles and see some with consistent successes.

Well what is interesting is not how well the aggregate does, but how much better it does than individuals. After all if individuals can predict stuff consistently then what does the prediction market add?

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#395

Post by mlindner »

wiz21c wrote: post #24
cubefox wrote: post #13

It's funny that SpaceX is using the term "rapid unscheduled disassembly" unironically, despite it originally being a humourous euphemism.

Why can't they just say "exploded" ?

Well technically it's not an explosion.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#396

Post by mlindner »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #302
pjscott wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why they don't launch over areas where people are living, and why rocket launches are occasionally scrubbed due to the presence of a wayward boat. They're actually being careful here.

They do, and SpaceX is literally building an entire city around their launchpad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boca_Chica_(Texas)#Plans_for_a...

No they're not. There are no people living adjacent to the launch pad.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#397

Post by avionical »

bumby wrote: post #209
coryfklein wrote: post #205

Metaculus shows a 74% chance Starship reaches orbit in 2024, and a projected date of March 26 for the next launch. That seems pretty bullish to me! Next year (2025) will probably see the beginnings of practical customer usage of Starship. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status=open&has_group=f...

How does Metaculus make such predictions? I assume it can't be in the reliability engineering fashion used in industry.

Unclear, but the predictions appear to be better on things like US elections than prediction markets or 538: https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast...

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#398

Post by exodust »

ehsankia wrote: post #387
dotnet00 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really so hard for you to accept that he's just being like any person and sharing what he finds to be worth sharing? He was always like this. He started SpaceX because he thought putting a dome on Mars within which plants would be grown would be inspiring. The only reason it wasn't on social media was because it wasn't really much of a thing at the time. He didn't care about the optics and tried to buy an ICBM…

> To me that sounds like the same person as he is on social media. So randomly claiming someone's a pedophile is somehow "the same" as wanting to put a dome on Mars because it's inspiring? I honestly don't see how you can say that sounds like the same person. > sharing what he finds to be worth sharing? Are we honestly looking at the same tweets? Just looked and his pinned tweet is about Mexico and asylum seekers, do…

> 'He's fully lost the plot.'

His pinned tweet expresses concern about the border crisis, specifically the risk of undesirable people crossing the border.

He's expressing what he cares about, is the parent's point. Abrasive or animated expression of views, isn't losing the plot.

As for jokes about pronouns and other triggering issues, it can sometimes be defended when the joke is similar to the Gemini jokes. That is, poking fun at things that might deserve a bit of poking fun at, even ridicule in the case of Gemini.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#399

Post by venusenvy47 »

somenameforme wrote: post #370
newzisforsukas wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When you can start sending stuff to space for a few dollars per pound, we're not talking about just probes, but rather opening the door to the complete commercialization and exploitation of space. It almost sounds too good to be true or something.

Most of what SpaceX has already achieved has sounded similarly, but costs were so astronomical to begin with that it didn't make any immediate difference to most people. So for instance the Space Shuttle was only retired in 2011. After all was said and done it ended up costing $1.6 billion per launch - about $30,000 per pound of payload. The Falcon Heavy costs about $0.1 billion (in reusable mode) and brought the cos…

That link compares a cargo Dragon mission to ISS against a Shuttle launch. Did a Shuttle mission have more overhead because of the people on board? I'm not clear if the Shuttle cost is just the launch, or the whole manned mission with all the astronaut preparation.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#400

Post by falcor84 »

ajkjk wrote: post #394
falcor84 wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to assume, you can check the prediction history and see that they generally do quite well. You also look at the histories of individual predictors' profiles and see some with consistent successes.

Well what is interesting is not how well the aggregate does, but how much better it does than individuals. After all if individuals can predict stuff consistently then what does the prediction market add?

My understanding is that the market, which rewards and punishes your predictions is what makes one a better predictor.
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