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Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

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Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#141
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple seems so far behind in generative AI Apple is a best-in-class second mover. With the clusterfuck that has been generative AI (from OpenAI’s corporate drama to Google renaming and reörganizing their products every fifteen minutes) this seems prescient, with the only savvy player so far being Microsoft.

> Apple is a best-in-class second mover. Apple's biggest successes have come from being the first mover in a brand new space. Apple II, Macintosh, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Airpods, Watch were all category defining rather than "me too" products. In fact Apple is terrible at throwing its hat into an already crowded space, and doubly so when it comes to software.

Second mover in every example except maybe the Apple II where the competitors released in the same year.

iPod was released in 2001. Portable MP3 players were released in the late 90s.

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#143

Tesla is already the Apple of cars. Designed in California. Capacitive touchscreen instead of buttons. Vertical integration. Minimalist hardware design. Focus on software. Over the air updates. Custom SoC. When Apple did all this in phones it was unique. There was no Tesla of phones. But there is a Tesla of cars and it's tough to imagine what unique thing Apple could bring to the market.

this.

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#144

This is a smart move. Apple seems so far behind in generative AI it's making Google look innovative.

But what's it for? I can tell what an electric car is for, can you tell me what "generative AI" is for? A car can transport goods and people, really good non-deterministic typeahead is just.. well, I don't know what I'd use it for, do you? EDIT: what I really mean is what makes people think this is a commercially viable thing to spend time and money on? Like, say one of these companies hits some magic jackpot and dis…

> But what's it for? I can tell what an electric car is for, can you tell me what "generative AI" is for? A car can transport goods and people, really good non-deterministic typeahead is just.. well, I don't know what I'd use it for, do you?

It doesn't even seem to matter anymore. The tail is fully wagging the dog. Wall Street doesn't really care what companies are doing with AI, how they are using it, or whether their use of AI is going to actually drive earnings. They just care that they are using it. If a company says "We're doing AI blah blah blah" that's enough: investors are happy and stock price goes up.

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#145
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AVP has not failed yet. Saying so today would be akin to stating that the iPhone failed in the fall of 2007. Some did, Steve Ballmer laughed his butt off, convinced that no one sane will ever buy a $500 phone.

While some may have doubted the iPhone, Apple sold 1.9 million iPhones in the year it launched, and cell phones had already been established as an enormous and growing market. VR seems very different from that. Most people simply don’t want what companies are trying to sell them, and I think multiple major technical breakthroughs would be necessary to change that.

It hasn't been a year of AVP sales yet.

And as you say, the VR market is small compared to the phone market of 2007.

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#146

Good. This was an idea that never made any sense to me. It’s high overhead/low-margin and requires infrastructure, sales and after-sales support that just aren’t aligned with how Apple does business. It’s one thing to create a new car company (even tho those attempts usually fail), it’s another to purposefully take it on as a business line when your existing business groups prints money and have 40%+ margins. Especia…

I suspect Ive (and Jobs) had a big impact on how this project got off the ground.

https://www.theverge.com/transportation/2015/2/16/8045625/jo...

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#147
So Apple pivots from one thing that it doesn't have a natural advantage with to another.

Apple has gone from leading the industry to increasingly desperate and huge "me too" developments that they've failed at. AI, generative or otherwise, is going to be their next failure. To say AI moves fast is a serious understatement. I predict that which is white hot now (LLMs) will be a blind alley long left behind in a year or two.

How are Apple going to attract the talent they need to pull of something decent in AI? Their share price can't have the upside of hot startup or even a sleazy non-profit for that matter. I predict they buy something fairly pedestrian from some large player at some point.

Apple is a huge cash cow and with Cook at helm it will remain so but will slowly fade over time and resort even more to extractive behaviours on their customers and suppliers.

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> requires infrastructure, sales and after-sales support that just aren’t aligned with how Apple does business I always thought Apple was far and away the best consumer electronics brand at this part at least. I'm not saying it would directly translate to a car business, but they do have some real retail skill.

I was going to say. If anyone knows how to quickly create and expand a network of dealerships and post-sales support, it's Apple. They literally wrote the book on this with computers and phones and all their accessories.

> They literally wrote the book on this

I didn't realize Apple literally wrote a book on the subject. Sounds interesting, what's the title?

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#149
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple seems so far behind in generative AI Apple is a best-in-class second mover. With the clusterfuck that has been generative AI (from OpenAI’s corporate drama to Google renaming and reörganizing their products every fifteen minutes) this seems prescient, with the only savvy player so far being Microsoft.

> Apple is a best-in-class second mover. Apple's biggest successes have come from being the first mover in a brand new space. Apple II, Macintosh, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Airpods, Watch were all category defining rather than "me too" products. In fact Apple is terrible at throwing its hat into an already crowded space, and doubly so when it comes to software.

> Apple's biggest successes have come from being the first mover in a brand new space.

I would say that only one of the examples you gave was unambiguously the first mover in a brand new space. I will give you "category defining", though.

For example, the iPod had tons of competitors already in the field when it launched.

Airpods were not even close to the first wireless earbuds.

One of the Apple Watch's major competitors (fitbit) launched 8 years prior. The first smartwatch that could sync with a computer came out in the 80s.

The iPad came like a decade after Microsoft's first major tablet push. ATT and Sony/Magicap and Apple all released "smart tablets" in the early 90s.

The iPhone was not the first capacitive touch screen smartphone, and certainly not the first smartphone - over a decade late to that game.

The Macintosh was (sort of) a sequel to Apple's own Lisa, which itself was also not a first mover. The Mac was incredibly innovative and successful, but was preceded by the LISA, PERQ, Alto, various Lisp Machines.

> In fact Apple is terrible at throwing its hat into an already crowded space, and doubly so when it comes to software.

Couldn't be farther from the truth.

Re: Apple to wind down electric car effort after decadelong odyssey

#150
post #118
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple started work on this car when vehicles were still reasonably priced. I’d wager this cancellation is purely due to there being no chance in hell Apple could get the Apple premium for it when vehicle sales are stagnating due to massive price increases.

The much-overstated “Apple premium” largely reflects that they don’t compete in the lowest end of the PC/phone market. They’d be competing with BMW, not charging even more.

As a current owner of a BMW 5 series, buying anything non-electric for the price of an EV sounds ludicrous to me. The moment your warranty expires, BMW takes ownership of your wallet and never lets go, and there’s _a lot_ of expensive maintenance and repairs you need to do. I know they also make EVs, but just based on my current experience with their dealers buying anything from BMW would be insanity. Whoever overhauls the ownership experience will make a ton of money. In the meanwhile my next car will be a Tesla. My wife already has a Model Y, and in 3 years we paid $0 for maintenance and the car has been in the shop 0 times.

IOW Apple could easily charge their customary 20-30% margin and create fierce brand loyalty by just looking at whatever it is BMW is doing and doing the opposite in nearly every situation.

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