Earlier quoted context omitted.
HN also underestimated cryptocurrency craze. Yet years later, it is busted. Seeing the same patterns with AI. Every startup is now incorporating “AI” or “deep learning” or “OpenAI” into their decks/motto/pitch. Have yet to see anything worth using beyond the initial hype. Using AI to me is like learning another programming language. Same shit. Different interface.
Is cryptocurrency busted? Sure, it didn't replace the global monetary system, but it seems to be a proven technology now. And sure, it had its crashes, but BTC is up 112% over 1Y, and lots of cryptos have legitimate payment purposes.
What's the risk-adjusted return and correlation with other securities? Those are both more important than share price.
Since it doesn't pay dividends in USD, its USD value is only achieved if you go around convincing everyone else to stop selling it so that you can sell it. Which I think conflicts with it being used for payments.