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AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

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Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#61
post #13

“Statistically significant and highly clinically meaningful” perhaps, but not so much that they can say what that actually means. My understanding is that of all cancer drugs approved by the FDA between 2000-2016 (around 90 drugs), the median life extension was just over 2 months...

My understanding is that of all cancer drugs approved by the FDA between 2000-2016 (around 90 drugs), the median life extension was just over 2 months...

An exciting, underrated possibility: therapies in conjunction with each other, even if the therapies are initially studied in isolation. Single-agent chemo doesn't work for many cancer types, but multi-agent chemo often does. The same may be true of the small molecules, antibody drug conjugates (ADCs), and monoclonal or bispecific antibodies being tested now. I have squamous cell carcinoma initially of the tongue, and now of the head, neck, and lungs (https://jakeseliger.com/2023/07/22/i-am-dying-of-squamous-ce...), and I'm on a clinical trial monotherapy at UCSD called MCLA-158 / petosemtamab. But, if I live long enough, which isn't super likely but isn't impossible, there's a decent shot that the FDA will finally approve Moderna's mRNA-4157 personalized vaccine for melanoma—hopefully in 2025. If I can get mRNA-4157 off label and combine it with pembrolizumab (Keytruda) and petosemtamab (assuming the latter is approved, too), that combo may be much more potent than any of the three in isolation, and I've already failed pembro as a monotherapy and pembro + carboplatin + paclitaxel.

And if that combo doesn't work, or has some unexpected negative effect (including death), well, I'm going to die anyway, and the risk seems worthwhile.

As another commenter observed, the median can be skewed by the number of people who don't respond; among those who respond to a given drug, some don't respond, but some live surprisingly long.

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#62
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US approval follows the path of one treatment for one ailment. so if something was useful for 100 ailments, it needs 100 different approvals, and a company willing to attempt doing that what more likely happens is one treatment is denied for the one ailment the company thought they were tackling, and that one treatment is never pursued again so there's a lot of waste in this particular approach to protecting the publ…

Seems like there's a lot of opportunity with those unused treatments, if you can get the right arrangement of capital. If the company gives up on pursuit, perhaps the'd sell it for less than the R&D cost. Someone could go scoop up 'losers' and find a better way to match them to ailments.

This happens. Drug companies sell off IP and technology quite often.

The bottle neck is you need someone with a better use hypothesis, and a billion dollars to test that. Drug Trials and development are obscenely expensive.

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#63
post #56
post #14

A friend died of lung cancer. Went from mild cough to funeral in about 5 weeks. 40 yo. 2 pre-teen kids. Started to look after my own health a bit more. This is a very welcome development.

Any more details? No history?

Smoker, was always coughing a bit. His grandfather also died of lung cancer, but he didn’t make the connection until it was too late.

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US approval follows the path of one treatment for one ailment. so if something was useful for 100 ailments, it needs 100 different approvals, and a company willing to attempt doing that what more likely happens is one treatment is denied for the one ailment the company thought they were tackling, and that one treatment is never pursued again so there's a lot of waste in this particular approach to protecting the publ…

Why doesn't the company pursue it for other purposes? Sounds extremely narrow, as per the comment above. There may be related stuff where it works as a treatment depending on the endpoint?

Because it is extremely expensive and complex to pursue each each use. At some point of diminishing returns, it makes sense to let the medical community lead the process of finding and testing uses.

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#67
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I've misunderstood, but for the average person that's even worse news, right? Two months was from clinical trials where there's no doubt that the "thumb is on the scale" in a host of ways, creating an exaggerated estimate of efficacy that would be realised in the real world. The reality is closer to no life extension, with the remaining lifespan is spent sicker than you'd have been without the drugs.

>The reality is closer to no life extension, with the remaining lifespan is spent sicker than you'd have been without the drugs. I dont think that is true at all. The data is pretty clear that lifespan is significantly increasing. >Over time, the mean overall survival has improved from two months in 1973 to five months in 2015. Regarding long-term survival, a clear rise in 2yS is noted, increasing from 2.6% in 1973 t…

I'm sorry, but two months to five months after 50 years and hundreds of billions of dollars. That was hardly the promise of the "war on cancer"!

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#68
post #38

My aunt was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer and is only alive because of this drug. It’s a marvel of modern medicine.

My wife was diagnosed in Nov '23. Stage 4. She had a mutation that allowed Tagrisso/osimertinib. There are many mutations, but this one is prevalent in Asian women who have never smoked. There was a trial published just after her diagnosis that showed progression free survival at 2 years of 57% (chemo+osimertinib) vs 41% (osimertinib). https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2306434 She's 6 days into the chemo. T…

> this one is prevalent in Asian women who have never smoked.

Does that mean the rate is lower for Asian women who do smoke?

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#69

My mom died from lung cancer. It was going to happen, life long smoker. Dying from LC is a terrible way to go. Your lungs fill with fluid and you slowly drown in your own fluid. The pain meds make you hallucinate terrible thoughts. I wouldn't wish it on anyone. For the benefit of humanity, I hope this treatment works.

Watching my grandfather die with emphysema at age 12 was the only anti-smoking message I ever needed

Re: AstraZeneca unveils successes in treatment of lung cancer

#70
post #13

“Statistically significant and highly clinically meaningful” perhaps, but not so much that they can say what that actually means. My understanding is that of all cancer drugs approved by the FDA between 2000-2016 (around 90 drugs), the median life extension was just over 2 months...

Yes, but this isnt as negative as it sounds. That 2 months average is often driven by more people alive at the end of a 2 year trial. Also, 16 years of 2 month extensions ends up being quite meaningful.

To be clear, those aren't 16 years of accumulating improvements. The median life extension - across all 90-odd drugs - was two months.
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