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Raising Children on the Eve of AI

juliawise.net

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Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#91

Post by bbor »

j4yav wrote: post #47
bbor wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like our careers could just be snuffed out instantly with little recourse available. You’ve likely heard this sentiment before but it’s the right one so I’ll be the one to post it today: your job is not your purpose, and the economy is not the society. Obviously your whole comment is well founded and relatable, but I think this is the only cure for your anxieties. The world is a beautiful, beautiful place, w…

I’m not sure, there is something meaningful and rewarding in doing even hard work to make life better for the people around you, or creating beautiful things from the sweat of your brow. A future of forced endless leisure sort of sounds like a dystopia honestly.

I agree, but I was trying to imply that I find the “we solve all problems and there’s no way to feel like you’re helping others” scenario to be preeetty unlikely. Much more likely is a future where we continue to sweat from our brow, but without directly tying it to subsistence, and with much more personal autonomy.

I think the term “emotional labor” might be a good tool to hint at what I’m talking about. That’s just a subset of the wider “there’s more ways to be productive than a capitalist job” view

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#92

Post by butwho »

wilbo wrote: post #22
aquarkortwo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a world where we have personalized tutors and assistants that can pass on knowledge much more efficiently and effectively than human teachers can.

* I suspect the social value of school will become much more apparent soon.* School is not just about the academic knowledge you gain. Plus, I'd imagine pairing a personalized tutor with an effective human teacher would only accelerate learning faster.

> I suspect the social value of school will become much more apparent soon.

It's important for the children to see the bullies protected by inept teachers, otherwise how will they learn how the world actually works?

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#93

Post by microtonal »

inference-lord wrote: post #12

I became a parent about a year ago, completely unprepared for this future. My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too. I remember thinking, like what the fuck just happened? Like I just woke up in a movie. I've learned to accept the situation, and realize th…

My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too.

Our daughter is ten and when it comes to AI and stuff, I am not worried about our kids. It's us who will suffer most from it. Remember when you were young and had to explain your parents over and over again how the remote worked? Your kid is going to do that to you. Not explaining remote, but explaining the new world, which is going to be completely foreign to you but native to them. I already see these dynamics, and I'm someone who is in tech. It's not just the technology that changes, but the socio-cultural frame of reference changes with it too and it's harder and harder to connect with it as an older person.

For her I am more worried about the large-scale war that started on the European continent and potential break-down of the existing world order when the orange guy gets elected. He is already actively undermining Article 5 of the NATO charter. Casting any doubt on Article 5 pretty much makes it worthless. Once that happens, dominos might start to fall. With the US out, Putin will try poking at some countries that are hard to defend (Baltic states) or countries that people in Western Europe might not want to sacrifice their lives for because they feel less connected (Bulgaria, Romania). A bewildered Europe that will feel deserted by the US will be too occupied with its own issues or even strengthen ties to China (who still have Russia on a leash to some extend). China might feel more emboldened about the collapse of traditional pacts and try to attack Taiwan, etc.

Not saying that this is the way it will play out, but there is a very large risk of slipping into a world war, especially if the US becomes more isolationist. And people will laugh about a bunch of hackers worrying in 2024 about AI taking over the world.

(Well, war and climate change are going to be the enormous issues for our children's generation if we don't start fixing things soon.)

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#94

Post by inference-lord »

moltar wrote: post #80
alumic wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I drove around today listening to the most recent Lex Fridman podcast, in which the founder of Boston Dynamics was describing replacing human labor with machines that were capable of learning by seeing. I have family in the trades. I pursued tech and fell in love with the field. Listening to the interviewee, I began to feel sick to my stomach at the glib description of what amounts to ripping away peoples' livelihood…

Could have said the same about the use of tractors. People used to farm by hand. All those people were replaced. Yet here we are doing just fine.

People are still employed to drive tractors though.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#95

Post by keiferski »

bo1024 wrote: post #88
keiferski wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing the point I’m making. Everyone won’t be a YouTuber. But the successful people will cultivate skills that are similar to those needed by successful YouTubers. Being an anonymous worker with anonymous output means you can be easily replaced.

All of the examples you gave are lottery-ticket professions, though. And even if a large number of people could be successful entertainers, I'm not even sure about the premise. AI-generated media could compete with YouTubers very soon. AI will take a long, long time to replace garbagemen.

I think the markets for entertainment will grow as regular jobs become more redundant. Especially if we ever get a basic income. That will add a ton of time people are looking to fill.

More generally though I’m just saying that the successful people of the future are the ones that understand how to connect to people via video/audio/in person; rather than relying on the anonymous code/writing/work that can be replaced by AI.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#96

Post by RandomLensman »

alumic wrote: post #62
bbor wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Work is equivalent to worth. We are not biologically or sociologically prepared to differentiate the two. I’m gonna say there’s a very very selective “we” in use here. I’m sure you’re accurately reporting your surroundings, but many people outside America (and a few within it!) are very much already there. Plus, like, isn’t that kinda depressing? What are disabled people “worth”? If I choose to be an unpopular niche…

It is depressing. I think that this might just be the whole picture. Look, I spent a long while studying evolutionary biology in school (detour into pre-med) and came away with a fairly bleak picture of our place in the universe. I use "worth" in precisely that context. Nature gives us a world in which "he who does not work, does not eat" is a rule of law. Human beings--especially modern ones--assign worth quite diff…

A rich person not working is worthless? Historically, humans have not acted that way, nor have such persons had nothing to eat. Wealth can substitute for work.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#97

Post by duccinator »

keiferski wrote: post #37
alumic wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I drove around today listening to the most recent Lex Fridman podcast, in which the founder of Boston Dynamics was describing replacing human labor with machines that were capable of learning by seeing. I have family in the trades. I pursued tech and fell in love with the field. Listening to the interviewee, I began to feel sick to my stomach at the glib description of what amounts to ripping away peoples' livelihood…

For autonomous robots to replace the millions of tradesmen and workers, it would require vastly more resources than are being put toward this now. I wouldn’t expect human labor to be replaced in this way for a century or two.

Once you have autonomous robots you can use those robots to build more robots leading to an exponential curve. The day they make the first one, we will reach a million in 2-3 years and a billion in 2-4 years after that.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#98

Post by keiferski »

dbish wrote: post #68
keiferski wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only in situations where the creator is anonymous or has a weak brand now. For creators that are functionally celebrities (I.e., successful YouTubers) people follow them because they like the human behind the video. I don’t see AI replacing that, potentially ever.

There are quite succesful vtubers fwiw, pretty easy to make those with AI in the near future.

I think it’s mostly a gimmick now, and even then, the channels with human beings that build a connection to their audience are more popular anyway.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#99

Post by keiferski »

duccinator wrote: post #97
keiferski wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For autonomous robots to replace the millions of tradesmen and workers, it would require vastly more resources than are being put toward this now. I wouldn’t expect human labor to be replaced in this way for a century or two.

Once you have autonomous robots you can use those robots to build more robots leading to an exponential curve. The day they make the first one, we will reach a million in 2-3 years and a billion in 2-4 years after that.

The laws of physics and the material cost of creating robots still exist. Real life isn’t a sci fi movie.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#100

Post by nox101 »

AnarchismIsCool wrote: post #23
rbanffy wrote: post #3

One bit of warning: we tend to overestimate the short term impact of new tools while underestimating their long term ones. It’s likely our kids will have recognisable professions with better phones than not. AI will be there assisting us in increasingly sophisticated ways, acting as intelligent agents and maybe even impersonating us at simple interactions. Value and supply chains change slowly and those are the thing…

In five years the world will be identical to the present. In 15, it will be unrecognizable.

My grandparents still recognize the world. they drove cars in their 20s and drive them now. They go shopping at stores much the same as the past. They eat at restaurants much the same as the past. They read books, watch movies much the same as the past. they cook, see friends and family. they live in a house. it still has rooms and furnu much the same as the past.

what's changed? more entertainment. easier communication. more photos and video. but day to day life isn't all that much different

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