Raising Children on the Eve of AI • Hacker News Board

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#31

Post by bbor » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:22 AM UTC

alumic wrote: post #28

inference-lord wrote: post #12

I became a parent about a year ago, completely unprepared for this future. My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too. I remember thinking, like what the fuck just happened? Like I just woke up in a movie. I've learned to accept the situation, and realize th…

I drove around today listening to the most recent Lex Fridman podcast, in which the founder of Boston Dynamics was describing replacing human labor with machines that were capable of learning by seeing. I have family in the trades. I pursued tech and fell in love with the field. Listening to the interviewee, I began to feel sick to my stomach at the glib description of what amounts to ripping away peoples' livelihood…

  Work is equivalent to worth. We are not biologically or sociologically prepared to differentiate the two.

I’m gonna say there’s a very very selective “we” in use here. I’m sure you’re accurately reporting your surroundings, but many people outside America (and a few within it!) are very much already there.

Plus, like, isn’t that kinda depressing? What are disabled people “worth”? If I choose to be an unpopular niche artist, am I “worth” less?

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#32

Post by RobinL » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:23 AM UTC

bbor wrote: post #27

inference-lord wrote: post #12

I became a parent about a year ago, completely unprepared for this future. My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too. I remember thinking, like what the fuck just happened? Like I just woke up in a movie. I've learned to accept the situation, and realize th…

It seems like our careers could just be snuffed out instantly with little recourse available. You’ve likely heard this sentiment before but it’s the right one so I’ll be the one to post it today: your job is not your purpose, and the economy is not the society. Obviously your whole comment is well founded and relatable, but I think this is the only cure for your anxieties. The world is a beautiful, beautiful place, w…

I think this is subjective. I get a sense of purpose from my job. I don't feel like 'just' a labourer, I feel like by working I'm contributing to society and helping others.

I don't want infinite leisure, I want to feel useful. A good day's work is very satisfying. But at the point machines can do my job better than I can, it might be difficult to feel useful.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#33

Post by dsign » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:23 AM UTC

Vecr wrote: post #8

rbanffy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not a huge fan of CS Lewis but the quote at the end is very on point. Let’s continue to be human and do human things. Change will come as it always does.

It's okay I guess if you think you have no causal impact on if any of that happens, but otherwise you better be doing something to help, even if it would only work in a tiny part of probability space, instead of waiting to die.

Just this. And there are things we can do. Those of us who live in democracies can influence outcomes a little.

It may be too early for political action, but perhaps is not too early for writing and reflecting, and for coming up with theories about how the near future may look like, and sharing them with the world.

If things turn really dire, there is always that turbid matter our advanced culture forbids us to reach out for: violence and revolutions. In other words, if it is the AIs or us, be it because the AIs are outright evil or because our economic systems make them evil, then we can always choose “us” and resort to forceful or even violent corrections.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#34

Post by bo1024 » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:24 AM UTC

keiferski wrote: post #13

I think kids are a lot more prepared for this future than professional technologists probably realize. If you ask them today what profession they want to be, you often get “YouTuber” as an answer. Which might seem like a joke, but I think it’s actually quite accurate in terms of future professions. The jobs at most risk from AI are “anonymous” ones in which the creator of the work is unknown to its consumer. Writing,…

YouTuber is a lottery-ticket profession. It's a winner-take-all, heavy-tailed distribution. It doesn't make sense to tell a whole population to buy lottery tickets. For kids, it's a modern equivalent of "I want to be in the NBA", "I want to be an astronaut".

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#35

Post by Brajeshwar » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:24 AM UTC

rbanffy wrote: post #3

One bit of warning: we tend to overestimate the short term impact of new tools while underestimating their long term ones. It’s likely our kids will have recognisable professions with better phones than not. AI will be there assisting us in increasingly sophisticated ways, acting as intelligent agents and maybe even impersonating us at simple interactions. Value and supply chains change slowly and those are the thing…

I will always remember Amara's Law, “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Having been in the tech industry for 20+ years taught me a lot about the long-term impact.

PS. My daughter's name is Amara. :-)

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#36

Post by inference-lord » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:25 AM UTC

RobinL wrote: post #32

bbor wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like our careers could just be snuffed out instantly with little recourse available. You’ve likely heard this sentiment before but it’s the right one so I’ll be the one to post it today: your job is not your purpose, and the economy is not the society. Obviously your whole comment is well founded and relatable, but I think this is the only cure for your anxieties. The world is a beautiful, beautiful place, w…

I think this is subjective. I get a sense of purpose from my job. I don't feel like 'just' a labourer, I feel like by working I'm contributing to society and helping others. I don't want infinite leisure, I want to feel useful. A good day's work is very satisfying. But at the point machines can do my job better than I can, it might be difficult to feel useful.

It's called dignity and it's something people struggle with a LOT when they age.

"Don't worry grandad, I'll mow the lawn".

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#37

Post by keiferski » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:26 AM UTC

alumic wrote: post #28

inference-lord wrote: post #12

I became a parent about a year ago, completely unprepared for this future. My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too. I remember thinking, like what the fuck just happened? Like I just woke up in a movie. I've learned to accept the situation, and realize th…

I drove around today listening to the most recent Lex Fridman podcast, in which the founder of Boston Dynamics was describing replacing human labor with machines that were capable of learning by seeing. I have family in the trades. I pursued tech and fell in love with the field. Listening to the interviewee, I began to feel sick to my stomach at the glib description of what amounts to ripping away peoples' livelihood…

For autonomous robots to replace the millions of tradesmen and workers, it would require vastly more resources than are being put toward this now. I wouldn’t expect human labor to be replaced in this way for a century or two.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#38

Post by throwanem » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:26 AM UTC

Vecr wrote: post #24

Vecr wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking about VNM utility, I'm not a utilitarian or a EA.

> VNM applied in the realm of ethics is definitionally utilitarian. I assume you are thinking deontological ethics, virtue ethics, etc vs utilitarianism, but non-benthamite utility functions exist. Actually, if they didn't I assume a lot of AI doomers would be less doomy, as quite a few of them are utilitarians.

No, I'm thinking utilitarianism.

I appreciate that the standard definition includes a term about "for the greatest number". But you're still defining an ethical utility function which you then seek to maximize.

That your utility function may be off model from the most doctrinaire possible interpretation of the theory does not seem to me the same as saying this is not an example of the theory.

The same could be said of effective altruism, which is anyway just the prosperity-gospel version of utilitarianism. That one should be doing utilitarianism badly does not mean one is not doing utilitarianism at all.

(Did you mean to reply to your comment rather than mine?)

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#39

Post by inference-lord » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:26 AM UTC

bbor wrote: post #27

inference-lord wrote: post #12

I became a parent about a year ago, completely unprepared for this future. My Son was born around the time ChatGPT-4 was released and I remember all the Geoffrey Hinton interviews which were really apocalyptic sounding, he is has a kind of kookie mad scientist vibe about him too. I remember thinking, like what the fuck just happened? Like I just woke up in a movie. I've learned to accept the situation, and realize th…

It seems like our careers could just be snuffed out instantly with little recourse available. You’ve likely heard this sentiment before but it’s the right one so I’ll be the one to post it today: your job is not your purpose, and the economy is not the society. Obviously your whole comment is well founded and relatable, but I think this is the only cure for your anxieties. The world is a beautiful, beautiful place, w…

What do you suppose we all do during the transition to utopia? How do we feed our families once we've been laid off and while we wait for the arrival of paradise?

People already going through this now.

Re: Raising Children on the Eve of AI

#40

Post by AnarchismIsCool » Sat, Feb 17, 2024, 7:26 AM UTC

Turing_Machine wrote: post #30

AnarchismIsCool wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is winning and what is losing? Yeah there are actions that persist our genetics but there's no rule saying that's what needs to happen, just that it's something that happens . If you widen out to society, yeah, there are other people who will come after us, maybe we can have purpose in helping those people to survive even if they're not our kids. Humans evolved as a collective, there are parts of our DNA that ex…

> What is winning and what is losing? Yeah there are actions that persist our genetics but there's no rule saying that's what needs to happen, just that it's something that happens. All of us are descended from billions of years of ancestors (long before humans) that were motivated to reproduce. Those who didn't left none of their genes behind (other than ones they might have shared with relatives). That's exactly wh…

Not at all. Simple example: ants. Most of them don't reproduce, but they still work to pass on their genes.

In the case of humans... Why do you think there has always been a part of society that seems predisposed to violence and nationalism. It's not beneficial to the individual to go get in fights, but if it keeps the group alive then it's advantageous. (Note, this is not a license to be a violent nationalist asshole, but this is the internet so...) Similarly, autism and ADHD. There are very real theories that those conditions were beneficial to early society even if they were detrimental to mating because it's helpful to have people around who are hyper focused and hyper unfocused.

So yeah, helping pass on your relative's genes, however distant, is still part of the game.