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Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

bloomberg.com

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Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#181

Post by zer00eyz »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #169
zer00eyz wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> This is only a problem if it's prohibited by zoning. Otherwise it just gets reflected in the price. Depending on HOW the building was constructed (read: a large majority of office space), you will be unable to deal with the plumbing issues. Total volume of water to every floor + distribution of the bathrooms (where they need to be moved in an updated floor plan) makes these sorts of change overs prohibitively expe…

> Total volume of water to every floor + distribution of the bathrooms (where they need to be moved in an updated floor plan) makes these sorts of change overs prohibitively expensive. You say "prohibitively expensive" while ignoring both of the alternatives where it isn't. The first is dorm-style housing with shared bathrooms, and then you put the bathrooms where they are right now. The second is upscale housing, an…

> The first is dorm-style housing with shared bathrooms, and then you put the bathrooms where they are right now.

No one wants to live like this.

> The second is upscale housing, and then you invest in the conversion because you're targeting tenants who can pay.

But they have to want to live there. Creating high end housing can be a challenge.

> Either of these at scale increases the housing supply and thereby lowers rents for everybody.

Supply isnt at issue. The demographics of Air BnB and empty investments in the US is appalling. We have more than enough housing for people its just empty or unlivable (see NYC real estate not getting updates due to rent control)

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#182

Post by PlunderBunny »

makeitdouble wrote: post #69
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's still possible to convert to houses, but that makes for ridiculously small liveable areas compared to the whole floor surface. This is only a problem if it's prohibited by zoning. Otherwise it just gets reflected in the price. Houses in the suburbs often contain a large amount of space with no windows, i.e. a basement the size of the entire first floor, and no one objects because it can be used for storage or…

> Otherwise it just gets reflected in the price This is one of my nightmares. What if we allowed people to live in basically confinment cells and they have no choice as they're broke af or the gov or their companies assigns them one in a relocation program. My gut feeling is that the social consequences would be subtle and easily overlooked by officials but widespread and long lasting. > Houses in the suburbs often c…

Try searching for pictures/articles about "cage homes" or "coffin cubicles" in Hong Kong. The way the rental prices rise as soon as old-age pensions increase must be one of the most heartless things I've ever heard of.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#183

Post by tmaly »

xyst wrote: post #91

> The magnitude of the crisis is up for debate. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week that losses in commercial real estate are a worry, but that the situation is “manageable,” a similar sentiment expressed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a 60 Minutes interview on Feb. 4. Others have more dire outlooks, with real estate investor Barry Sternlicht predicting $1 trillion in office losses. Fuck man. Another ‘08 si…

It seems like the 08 situation was not really solved.

The bank loses were put on the taxpayer for the most part.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#184

Post by mschuster91 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #168
mschuster91 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution to homeless people is to give them affordable, quality housing. Not to just move them from a shitty situation into one that's just marginally better.

Let's suppose that we hypothetically make affordable, quality housing available. Then we still don't need rules prohibiting lower quality housing because nobody will choose it when higher quality housing is affordable, right? The exception would be people who don't care, e.g. someone who works nights and doesn't want daylight in the place where they sleep while they're trying to sleep, and then all you're doing is de…

> The exception would be people who don't care, e.g. someone who works nights and doesn't want daylight in the place where they sleep while they're trying to sleep, and then all you're doing is depriving them of an opportunity to save money through their own circumstances.

Roller shutters, nothing easier than that. These things are standard in Germany.

> The only reason a poor person in ordinary circumstances would choose lower quality housing is if we fail to provide affordable, quality housing, which is currently happening, and in that case if we also prohibit lower quality housing they end up under the overpass. So there is never any reason to prohibit it. Because you can't improve peoples' lives by removing alternatives, you have to create them -- they can themselves eliminate bad options by choosing better ones, but only if they're allowed to exist.

The problem is slumlords. Allowing usage of unfit rooms (i.e. no/small windows, basement rooms) for permanent living once makes it very hard to force landlords to upgrade these rooms or condemn them later on, and in 40 years society will still be dealing with that fallout. Rooms without windows to escape are deadly fire traps, and basement rooms can be just as deadly (or at least destructive) in floods.

Whatever we create now will most likely outlive us, so we better do it right now instead of just kicking the can down the road for the next decades!

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#185

Post by jdeibele »

danaris wrote: post #147
chollida1 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THis is a nice thought but rarely happens regardless of zoning. Office buildings floor plates and residential floor plates aren't really compatable. Office buildings have most of their floor plates not around windows, where are residential needs some light. Also water, and sewer need to be retrofitted. The one building that was a successful conversion that I know of cut out the center of the building to create a ligh…

There is an actual solution, at least for buildings that are large enough: Make the whole building mixed-use. Ring the outside with apartments, and keep the inside commercial. Make the whole thing a little community in itself. Just fill the whole center of it with cafés, bodegas, computer repair shops—the kinds of small, locally-owned shops you get in a (healthy) small town or a pre-modern-zoning city area.

Plumbing's been mentioned as an issue but I think ventilation would be an even bigger problem. The need to bring in fresh air and exhaust the cafe fumes from cooking, even with induction stoves, wasn't something that was probably planned for at all.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#186

Post by vdqtp3 »

danaris wrote: post #147
chollida1 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THis is a nice thought but rarely happens regardless of zoning. Office buildings floor plates and residential floor plates aren't really compatable. Office buildings have most of their floor plates not around windows, where are residential needs some light. Also water, and sewer need to be retrofitted. The one building that was a successful conversion that I know of cut out the center of the building to create a ligh…

There is an actual solution, at least for buildings that are large enough: Make the whole building mixed-use. Ring the outside with apartments, and keep the inside commercial. Make the whole thing a little community in itself. Just fill the whole center of it with cafés, bodegas, computer repair shops—the kinds of small, locally-owned shops you get in a (healthy) small town or a pre-modern-zoning city area.

> Just fill the whole center of it with cafés, bodegas, computer repair shops—the kinds of small, locally-owned shops you get in a (healthy) small town or a pre-modern-zoning city area.

Cyberpunk 2077, here we come!

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#187

Post by chiefalchemist »

bboygravity wrote: post #152
chiefalchemist wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They who made inflation rise? And are further squeezing the middle class to strengthen the GDP? And do notice they don't speak of the quality (read: income) of the jobs, only the quantity. They hide the ugly in those 50k ft aggregate metrics. Put another way...Trump in some polls is beating Biden. So suddenly it's not the economy, stupid? As it's said, perception is reality. Healthcare... up. Cost of automobiles... u…

We're supposed to believe that Putin and Covid caused inflation last I read the news.

I believe them. They would never lie to us.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#188

Post by sandworm101 »

Larrikin wrote: post #165
sandworm101 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A window on the 30th floor certainly isn't an escape route but the requirement does still enforce certain standards that in turn promote fire safety. A window means that every bedroom must be on an exterior wall. That simple rule means one cannot build huge warren-like buildings filled with tiny interior apartments, which would be an evacuation nightmare. The rule also forbids bedrooms deep underground. Yes, this doe…

This isn't a rule everywhere. I have the largest and most windows I've ever had in an apartment and my bedroom is in the interior. I actually find it nice, no need for black out curtains, I can easily nap during the day. My apartment is fitted with multiple sprinklers, which I assume gets it up to code.

Nor are fire escapes and sprinklers mandatory everywhere. Each local has its own standards but nobody should ever argue for a race to the bottom, that because some area doesn't do X that another area should follow that example just to lower costs.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#189

Post by s1artibartfast »

ahepp wrote: post #173
s1artibartfast wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the question that was raised is one of preference. How many of them would keep their 80 m^2 urban flat if offered a 250 m^2 suburban detached home? Humans are incredibly adaptive and resilient. I have met happy families living in a garbage dump.

Probably, but it seems meaningless to discuss preference without discussing cost and scarcity.

Why do you think it is meaningless? I think the question of if and which people prefer dense urban living is an interesting question by itself, even if you set aside cost and scarcity.

It also seems that understanding the preference in isolation is fundamental to understanding any system that includes cost and scarcity. for example, difference in preference can drive cost differences. For example, Fillet minion and cow hoofs are more scarce than flank steak, but one sells for more and the other for less due to preference.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#190

Post by s1artibartfast »

fmobus wrote: post #171
s1artibartfast wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the question that was raised is one of preference. How many of them would keep their 80 m^2 urban flat if offered a 250 m^2 suburban detached home? Humans are incredibly adaptive and resilient. I have met happy families living in a garbage dump.

I can extrapolate how much work is involved in keeping a 250sqm house clean, so I would decline the offer unless it came with magical cleaning dwarves.

As someone with a large house, I certainly feel the pain, but dont think I would trade less cleaning for less space.

It seems like the average American agrees because the average house built in 2023 was about 240 sqm.

If people prefer smaller houses, it is surprising that someone doesnt built smaller and sell it for more.

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