Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts • Hacker News Board

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#161

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 4:27 PM UTC

fmobus wrote: post #97

refurb wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reads like designing a city for 20-something singles whose highest priorities are nightlife and dining. What about the rest of us?

Plenty of happy families in my building here in Germany, judging by how active kids are in the playground. Heck, we even have a kindergarten right next to the building, schools within walking distance (and kids actually walk to them - alone), three different groceries within 5 minutes, not a single surface parking lot in sight.

I think the question that was raised is one of preference. How many of them would keep their 80 m^2 urban flat if offered a 250 m^2 suburban detached home?

Humans are incredibly adaptive and resilient. I have met happy families living in a garbage dump.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#162

Post by rsync » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 4:39 PM UTC

danaris wrote: post #147

chollida1 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THis is a nice thought but rarely happens regardless of zoning. Office buildings floor plates and residential floor plates aren't really compatable. Office buildings have most of their floor plates not around windows, where are residential needs some light. Also water, and sewer need to be retrofitted. The one building that was a successful conversion that I know of cut out the center of the building to create a ligh…

There is an actual solution, at least for buildings that are large enough: Make the whole building mixed-use. Ring the outside with apartments, and keep the inside commercial. Make the whole thing a little community in itself. Just fill the whole center of it with cafés, bodegas, computer repair shops—the kinds of small, locally-owned shops you get in a (healthy) small town or a pre-modern-zoning city area.

Yes, that is an interesting idea and I suspect there are many other creative ways to do some thing like that.

The plumbing remains a major problem, however. Restrooms and other plumbing are very centrally located in an office tower and the newer and more modern that office tower is the more central and consolidated they are.

Anything is possible, of course, but solving the light issue is just one item… The plumbing issue is at least as complicated.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#163

Post by imakwana » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 4:54 PM UTC

lukas099 wrote: post #43

If someone wanted to take a diversified, low-cost position in office reits, what would one buy?

Interesting question, probably an ETF like NETL comes close to holding diversified positions in various commercial/office REITs:

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/netl/portfolio

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#164

Post by mguerville » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 4:58 PM UTC

chollida1 wrote: post #120

keiferski wrote: post #15

Only speaking from my personal travel experiences, not any hard data, but: I feel like this issue is nearly non-existent in places with mixed use zoning. If the office values go down in a place with equal amounts of housing, they are repurposed as new apartments. The problem is when the office architecture isn’t interchangeable with apartment architecture, which usually happens because certain areas are zoned as offi…

THis is a nice thought but rarely happens regardless of zoning. Office buildings floor plates and residential floor plates aren't really compatable. Office buildings have most of their floor plates not around windows, where are residential needs some light. Also water, and sewer need to be retrofitted. The one building that was a successful conversion that I know of cut out the center of the building to create a ligh…

In Europe a lot of old buildings do this conversion easily, it's really more a problem with modern construction (and hence most American buildings) where the entire design is extremely skewed towards one use case vs the other

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#165

Post by Larrikin » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 5:02 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #156

Retric wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fire codes require multiple exists not specifically windows that can be used as exists. Which is why people can live on the 30+ floor of buildings without fire escapes. Many people prefer sleeping in rooms without windows or block up existing windows. Historically, these regulations were created to exclude the poor from areas. They do line up with most peoples preferences, but many would rather save in rent vs have a…

A window on the 30th floor certainly isn't an escape route but the requirement does still enforce certain standards that in turn promote fire safety. A window means that every bedroom must be on an exterior wall. That simple rule means one cannot build huge warren-like buildings filled with tiny interior apartments, which would be an evacuation nightmare. The rule also forbids bedrooms deep underground. Yes, this doe…

This isn't a rule everywhere. I have the largest and most windows I've ever had in an apartment and my bedroom is in the interior. I actually find it nice, no need for black out curtains, I can easily nap during the day.

My apartment is fitted with multiple sprinklers, which I assume gets it up to code.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#166

Post by epistasis » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 5:07 PM UTC

chongli wrote: post #78

epistasis wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite what they might oppose, as part of their profession they must uphold the determinations of the stakeholders. The purpose of a system is what it does. The supposed opposition of planners, a completely ineffectual and meaningless opposition that has zero effect on any policy outcome, does not change the fact that planning as a profession ends up being this means to an end.

Urban planners are people, not systems. Firefighters oppose fires and try to put them out, yet fires still happen. Would you say that the purpose of firefighting is to burn down houses?

The proper analogy here would be that the firefighters, despite personally opposing more fires, go out and set houses on fire because their profession requires them to do so.

The entire system is set up to produce worse outcomes, and the planners are the ones constructing and enabling the system.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#167

Post by mannyv » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 5:16 PM UTC

xyst wrote: post #91

> The magnitude of the crisis is up for debate. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week that losses in commercial real estate are a worry, but that the situation is “manageable,” a similar sentiment expressed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a 60 Minutes interview on Feb. 4. Others have more dire outlooks, with real estate investor Barry Sternlicht predicting $1 trillion in office losses. Fuck man. Another ‘08 si…

Realistically speaking, the authorities are trying to contain a panic.

From what I understand banks are loaning money to commercial real estate firms and those firms are using those loans to make payments, just so they don't default - because a default would mean that banks would have to recognize those losses.

I'm not directly plugged in anymore, so obviously take that with a huge pitcher of salt.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#168

Post by AnthonyMouse » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 5:18 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #110

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That would be part of the plan from the start: punish the undesirables for being poor, remind them of their low status in society every single day. As opposed to now, when they have to live under an overpass because they can't afford rent? > The requirement that rooms designated for living need adequate access to sunlight came out of the desire to eliminate such discrimination. It came out of a desire to force "und…

The solution to homeless people is to give them affordable, quality housing. Not to just move them from a shitty situation into one that's just marginally better.

Let's suppose that we hypothetically make affordable, quality housing available. Then we still don't need rules prohibiting lower quality housing because nobody will choose it when higher quality housing is affordable, right?

The exception would be people who don't care, e.g. someone who works nights and doesn't want daylight in the place where they sleep while they're trying to sleep, and then all you're doing is depriving them of an opportunity to save money through their own circumstances.

The only reason a poor person in ordinary circumstances would choose lower quality housing is if we fail to provide affordable, quality housing, which is currently happening, and in that case if we also prohibit lower quality housing they end up under the overpass. So there is never any reason to prohibit it. Because you can't improve peoples' lives by removing alternatives, you have to create them -- they can themselves eliminate bad options by choosing better ones, but only if they're allowed to exist.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#169

Post by AnthonyMouse » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 5:26 PM UTC

zer00eyz wrote: post #100

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's still possible to convert to houses, but that makes for ridiculously small liveable areas compared to the whole floor surface. This is only a problem if it's prohibited by zoning. Otherwise it just gets reflected in the price. Houses in the suburbs often contain a large amount of space with no windows, i.e. a basement the size of the entire first floor, and no one objects because it can be used for storage or…

>> This is only a problem if it's prohibited by zoning. Otherwise it just gets reflected in the price. Depending on HOW the building was constructed (read: a large majority of office space), you will be unable to deal with the plumbing issues. Total volume of water to every floor + distribution of the bathrooms (where they need to be moved in an updated floor plan) makes these sorts of change overs prohibitively expe…

> Total volume of water to every floor + distribution of the bathrooms (where they need to be moved in an updated floor plan) makes these sorts of change overs prohibitively expensive.

You say "prohibitively expensive" while ignoring both of the alternatives where it isn't.

The first is dorm-style housing with shared bathrooms, and then you put the bathrooms where they are right now.

The second is upscale housing, and then you invest in the conversion because you're targeting tenants who can pay.

Either of these at scale increases the housing supply and thereby lowers rents for everybody.

Re: Commercial property deals in the US are starting to pick up at deep discounts

#170

Post by AnthonyMouse » Thu, Feb 15, 2024, 5:37 PM UTC

rightbyte wrote: post #101

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What if we allowed people to live in basically confinment cells and they have no choice as they're broke af or the gov or their companies assigns them one in a relocation program. But they'd still have the same choice they have now. Pay more for something better. Right now their choice is to pay more, potentially sacrificing something even worse, or to be homeless. Presumably the small living space is better than h…

> But they'd still have the same choice they have now. Pay more for something better. It doesn't work like that. With cheap cells the low wages will adjust since some people are prepared to live in those, underbidding people that want to be able to see the sun in a race to the bottom.

> With cheap cells the low wages will adjust since some people are prepared to live in those, underbidding people that want to be able to see the sun in a race to the bottom.

That isn't how wages work. They're set by the local supply and demand of labor.

By your logic there would be no point in making housing more affordable at all because employers would just lower wages.