191–200 of 472 posts
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Sometimes I wish as a profession we valued teaching more. I would love to teach, but not do research, and make a living.
Become the next 3blue1brown. He has inspired many. Here's a gem of educator. Check out his other videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhYqflvJMXc
Strikes a balance between sounding engaging and soothing at the same time.
Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Plugins were a failure. GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more. It's not even clear that they're doing great research, because they don't publish. GPT-5 has to be incredibly good at this point, and I'm not sure that it will be.
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Running Ollama with a 80gb mistral model works as well if not better than ChatGPT 3.5. This is a good thing for the world IMO as the magic is no longer held just OpenAI. The speed at which competitors have caught up in even the last 3 months is astounding.
But no one cares about 3.5. It’s an order of magnitude worse than 4. An order of magnitude is a lot harder to catch up with.
Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Plugins were a failure. GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more. It's not even clear that they're doing great research, because they don't publish. GPT-5 has to be incredibly good at this point, and I'm not sure that it will be.
Personally, the chat UI is the main limiting factor in my own adoption, because a) it’s not in the tool I’m trying to use, and b) it’s quicker for me to do the work than describe the work I need doing.
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Sometimes I wish as a profession we valued teaching more. I would love to teach, but not do research, and make a living.
Become the next 3blue1brown. He has inspired many. Here's a gem of educator. Check out his other videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhYqflvJMXc
He uses elegant hand-drawn notes rather than Manim - although 3blue1brown's open sourced visualization library is beautiful too, I think this makes it extra impressive.
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I know things keep moving faster and faster, especially in this space, but GPT-4 is less than a year old. Claiming they are losing their luster, because they aren’t shaking the earth with new models every quarter, seems a little ridiculous. As the popularity has exploded, and ethical questions have become increasingly relevant, it is probably worth taking some time to nail certain aspects down before releasing everyt…
Given how fast the valuation of the company and the scope of their ambition (e.g. raising a trillion dollars for chip manufacturing) has been hyped up, I think it's fair to say "You live by the hype, you die by the hype."
Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Plugins were a failure. GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more. It's not even clear that they're doing great research, because they don't publish. GPT-5 has to be incredibly good at this point, and I'm not sure that it will be.
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On a 10B valuation )
That would be strong terms, but then they would need to find a way to spend $1B. Here's a proposal. Send $500M to NVIDIA for GPUs. Send $100M to AMD to balance the odds. Spend $100M to build a new chip as a hail mary. Spend the rest on $10M comp packages. How close did I get?
I'd probably say they should:
- allocate the $500M to the new chip, $100M to each of AMD and NVIDIA, then:
- never officially hire any more staff (these founders are 10E6X devs!)
- start "subtly" liquidating the AMD and NVIDIA chips after a year ("Tell HN: IlPathAI are liquidating their GPUs? >I bought a used GH200 off eBay and the shipping label was covering up previous shipping label for Andrej's shipping container treehouse >Are they getting quick cash to finance their foundry run on the new chips? It's that good??").
- Release a vague "alignment" solution on a chatgpt-generated kickstarter clone, take 3 years to "develop" it.
- Raise a series A (maybe a pre-A, or a post-seed. Honestly, maybe even a re-seed with this valuation!) off the hype (some obviously stable diffusion-generated images help here).
- Sell 30% of their shares in a secondary, profit some billions.
- When everyone starts getting suspicious, time to take out those GH200s you "sold" on ebay out of storage (those buyers were just sockpuppets - investors from the family/"friends" round), repackage them in some angled magnesium alloy. Release them to great fanfare. Crowd briefly ecstatic, concern sets in - "this has the same performance as the GH200? That was like 4 years ago!".
- Call the "performance issues" some form of "early access syndrome" and succeed in shifting blame back onto the consumer.
- Release a "performance patch" that in actuality just freaking overclocks and overvolts the device, occasionally secretly training on the user's validation set using an RDMA exfiltration exploit. This gets them to 2028, when the modified firmware on all devices spontaneously causes a meltdown - should've written it in Rust - that should've been a signed int! The fans thought it was suddenly 1773, ran in reverse so fast the whole device melted (aww all that IP down the drain)!
- When asked how on earth that could make any sense, dodge the question with the news that "We just had the unfortunate news that one of the greybeards who wrote the firmware previously at Siemens and then the DoE, has programmed his last PLC. He died glowing peacefully last night surrounded by layered densities of gasses. We are too sad and bankrupt to go on."
- Declare bankruptcy
- Become alt-right pundits on Y.com (If they haven't already wrapped around to AA.com - they managed to grab that domain after some airline went bankrupt after an embarrassing incident involving a 787 Max, the latest Stable Diffusion model, a marketing executive, some loose screws, and a Boeing QA contractor back there who might Not Be Real).
- Start a war with a "totally harmless" post, later admit it was "poorly worded". - Use some saved funds to "find a way" for IlPathAI, Inc. to leave bankruptcy, pivot to a chat app (you actually just buy HipChat again). Resell that after reusing it for a few particularly juicy govt. tenders. Pivot to defense contracting. End up with enough money for the rest of the millennium.
- Write a joint autobiography called "The Alignment Problem", send it to your "kickstarter" backers. Print the book using old school metal typecasting because they forgot TeX, and the current language models only spit out hallucinated Marvel dialog. Screw up the kerning since you learned typesetting on the TikTok page of a French clockwork museum. Claim this was on purpose.
- The whole time, maintain an amazingly educational YouTube channel teaching Machine Learning to those who love to learn.
- Release "AGI" but it's actually just 5 lines of PyTorch that would have solved Tesla's FSD problems with mirrors. Send Douglas Hofstadter a very slightly smaller copy every day until he recurses into true AGI.
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Well I started out serious at least (OK, only the first and second-to-last bullets were). I do genuinely believe that $100M would not be enough to produce competitive IP right now - You'd likely have to budget a majority of that to the final production run! I wonder how much you'd have to spend on making custom chips to break even with spending the money on research in the performance/model architecture side of things, on average.
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> Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Good. I have no idea what's really going on inside that company but the way the staff were acting on twitter when Altman got the push was genuinely scary, major red flags, bad vibes, you name it, it reeked of it.
It lost a little of its cool factor. However, they provide a nearly essential service at this point. While it is easy to underestimate, I suspect this is already have a measurable impact on global GDP.
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> Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Good. I have no idea what's really going on inside that company but the way the staff were acting on twitter when Altman got the push was genuinely scary, major red flags, bad vibes, you name it, it reeked of it.
What do you mean? How were they acting? I was surprised and touched by their loyalty, but maybe I missed something you noticed.
They were loyal to money, nothing to be touched by.