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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

forbes.com

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#281

Post by saberience »

__loam wrote: post #162
system2 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unrelated question: Do you have any stocks you are following and expecting to go high soon?

Don't take financial advice from hacker news. Go to the bogleheads wiki, get a handle on your personal finances, then invest using a standard 3 fund spread in index funds. Picking individual stocks is just gambling.

Don't take this advice unless you want massively subpar returns. The idea that picking individual companies is "gambling" is quite frankly ridiculous. The information around NVidia being a great company has been around for years and years and was obvious to anyone who took a look at the company performance.

The same is true for companies like Netflix or Shopify. I invested in all three of the these companies for the first time in around 2013 and 2014, why? Because I did my research and due diligence and could see they were incredibly well run, operating in areas with lots of room for growth.

If I had just invested in index funds I would much, much less money than I do now.

If you're reading this comment and you're younger than 60, do not take this advice. Your risk tolerance should be higher when you're younger and buying good companies at good prices is not gambling, it's what Warren Buffet always did, and it's the best way to grow your net worth.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#283

Post by givemeethekeys »

yCombLinks wrote: post #96
ein0p wrote: post #91

As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…

The forward PE is 31 for AMD, and Nvidia is at 33. Apple's forward PE is 26. The market prices are based on future expectations. Nvidia is expected to increase earnings by something like 3x, and AMD by 10X

How does one find information on forward P/E?

Are there historical forward P/E charts to get some context on whether the current prices are expensive / in-line with how tech is valued over the past ten.. twenty years?

Thanks!

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#284

Post by epivosism »

mr_toad wrote: post #212
behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

Nvidia purportedly enjoys a 1000% profit margin on H100’s. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-makes-1000-profit-o...

I think that is actually the markup number. Profit margin is capped at 100% since you can't profit by more than you sell something for.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#285

Post by alecco »

smsm42 wrote: post #279

Could somebody explain to me what is the moat that prevents somebody else from taking on Nvidia? OK, they make GPUs. Why somebody else can't make GPUs? AMD took on Intel, Google took on Microsoft and Apple - is GPU market somehow harder to enter? I mean, we're talking piles of money from the looks of it - Amazon and Google do a ton of stuff, and NVidia only does (roughly speaking) one thing - and that thing is not ev…

GPUs are very complex. Nvidia pioneers in everything related to GPUs. A rich software stack, the most sophisticated Tensor Cores, and bleeding edge features like 8 bit floating point (FP8) support. And they are working with FP4 next. This matters because by halving the data size it almost doubles the flops (see Hopper specs [1]).

The compute is so powerful it creates bottlenecks in data loading. So they have SXM, Nvlink, and since Hopper smart data async load to Tensor Cores (TMA).

It's so advanced the ML software hasn't caught up yet. And it's not trivial to tile and schedule properly at these levels. (See FlashAttention [2])

I wouldn't be surprised if they stay on Hopper for a while and just crank up the bandwidth and bundle more GPUs together. They already released H100 NVL which is basically 2 H100s. And the H200 with faster High Bandwidth Memory (v3).

AMD and Intel are way behind and have nothing even remotely close in planning.

[1] https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-tensor-core/nvidia-tensor...

[2] https://crfm.stanford.edu/2023/07/17/flash2.html

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#286

Post by SideQuark »

mr_toad wrote: post #212
behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

Nvidia purportedly enjoys a 1000% profit margin on H100’s. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-makes-1000-profit-o...

Only by ignoring all upfront costs, as also mentioned in the article.

Marginal profits need to be high when upfront costs are huge.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#287

Post by FloorEgg »

eastbound wrote: post #233
acchow wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big tech and AI startups would buy all the 4090's in existence if they had NVLink. You would not be able to find one for gaming without a multiple x markup

So we’re deeply hampering our AI startups, limiting their growth and possibilities by jacking up the prices x10, to reserve some silicium only for gamers which could perfectly be used for AI? Maybe gamers can wait and the next technological leap should have priority?

Yeah I guess to hell with all those people who are building the next generations of games and gaming platforms, and the millions of people who are looking forward to them. Let's sacrifice all their purpose and enjoyment so your AI startup can get cheaper hardware and push out some AI product no one wants, just so it can go out of business anyway when the VC money runs out.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#288

Post by jsnell »

testless wrote: post #282

Lofty valuation with a PE ratio of over 90 - even considering the growth and margins. Also almost no revenue growth in 2022/23 according to quickfs.net. Too expensive for my taste.

You're being misled by the site. Those aren't really their 2023 results, but their FY2023 results. And Nvidia's fiscal years are just nuts, basically FY2023 is 2022.

Their 2023 results will be reported as FY2024, and aren't out yet. But just the first three quarters showed 50% more revenue than the entire FY2023.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#289

Post by matt_daemon »

latchkey wrote: post #262
beachy wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insufficient disclosure. You must be aware that of the companies you listed, one (yours) sticks out as being unknown. Don't die on this hill, just do the decent thing and add a disclosure. This doesn't show you in a good light.

[flagged]

Good way to ensure no one buys anything from your company.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#290

Post by inemesitaffia »

latchkey wrote: post #262
beachy wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insufficient disclosure. You must be aware that of the companies you listed, one (yours) sticks out as being unknown. Don't die on this hill, just do the decent thing and add a disclosure. This doesn't show you in a good light.

[flagged]

You've fe'd up
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