Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who's this warning for? Do we have any budding monopolists in the HN crowd who need the warning?
Everyone's learning to talk like a GPT.
Eh, I was already uncool before GPT came around.
Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
221–230 of 379 posts
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
If AMDs version of “asleep at the wheel” is them eating Intels lunch for the last few years, I’d hate to see them awake. Intel is weak, and it’s much smarter to put resources into squeezing Intel while they are on the ropes than shift too much focus to ML.
Yeah exactly. AMD has other markets to compete in. Their desktop, laptop, and handheld offerings are incredible right now. I assume they are also going to replace Nvidia for the Switch 2.
Nope. Nintendo is sticking with Nvidia. I'll eat my hat if they don't.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…
There is _one_ other GPU maker.
Intel, AMD, Apple?
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#224Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…
Design and development-limited tech loves economies of scale. Stuff like software is functionally free per-unit past the development, hardware still scales very well as per-unit costs are a smaller proportion of the end unit cost (and much of their advantages is also in software, like CUDA and DLSS etc.).
The steam survey suggests that Nvidia have over 90% of the GPU market, so for every design they sell somewhere near 10x the number of units, so if they sell at the same margins they get 10x the development resources per unit.
That's a lot of slack to lose to business inefficiencies, or competing with more specialized but smaller market devices. Assuming they don't just purchase such possible competitors when they pop up.
It may be that a monopoly is the "natural" end state of such tech markets. I think it's self-evident this isn't a good end state for consumers.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah we’ll have power positive fusion any day now.
Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/meta-and-microsoft-to-buy-am... https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-scores-two-big-wins-or... https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...
> Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x.
You really should disclose that you’re a founder when you mention your company like that
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
And even a Tesla optimist would presumably admit that maintaining a third of the EV market would be a huge win for Tesla, as the EV market becomes "the car market" going forward. Maybe that won't happen, but it's at least within the realm of possibility -- maybe some of the existing carmakers stick the transition and some of them fail, but Tesla remains the biggest one, that's not impossible. But maintaining the 80%…
Agreed. Btw, I was talking about global electric car production. I don't know whether Tesla ever did 80% of global electric car sales?
~80% was the US number from 2020.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's the amount of money in the economy, and its growth is one measure of inflation. GP may be commenting that the "good times" of super-high valuations are about to come back thanks to inflation. That isn't the financial datum that really matters, though - what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate (which establishes the discount rate for the time value of money), which is still very high.
> what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate Where's the research showing the empirical relationship between P/E ratios and the risk free rate? Also, we are living in a a time of unprecedented monetary aggregate growth (for the US at least). I posit his why the yield curve has been inverted for so long and yet there is no recession in sight. The predictive power of asset prices seemingly no longer exists.
There's a ton of it: here's one person's regression. You can find the same in academic papers (although economics papers don't exactly deserve that label).
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/sp500pe-vs-inte...
It's also just common sense if you understand company valuation.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#228Makes sense. take out AI and the stick narrative of most tech companies and their valuation would halve
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's the amount of money in the economy, and its growth is one measure of inflation. GP may be commenting that the "good times" of super-high valuations are about to come back thanks to inflation. That isn't the financial datum that really matters, though - what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate (which establishes the discount rate for the time value of money), which is still very high.
By risk-free rate, do you mean the yield on US gov bonds?
"Risk-free rate" is a theoretical concept that represents the rate of return you get without taking any risk. T bill rates, reverse repo rates, and money market savings rates are a practical proxy for it, but it's not any one of these.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/meta-and-microsoft-to-buy-am... https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-scores-two-big-wins-or... https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...
> Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x. You really should disclose that you’re a founder when you mention your company like that
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