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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#81

Post by dartos »

behnamoh wrote: post #37
system2 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD is not too far behind. They can go wild in a few years.

In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month. AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.

AMD has rocm and added a CUDA compat layer to it.

Nvidia is in the limelight, but their product (GPU compute) is a commodity.

Once someone else has it cheaper, then it’s a race to the bottom.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#82

Post by mikewarot »

wbsun wrote: post #70
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

The relevant EU Law[1] seems to be "Any abuse by one or more undertakings of a dominant position within the common market or in a substantial part of it shall be prohibited as incompatible with the common market insofar as it may affect trade between Member States."

So, as long as it treats fabs in Europe fairly, it can do whatever it wants in the rest of the world.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_competition_law

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#83

Post by dheera »

cowsandmilk wrote: post #18
rgmerk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not having done any GPU programming...is most of the code out there tied to the Nvidia architecture? I mean, if AMD or somebody else builds a better mousetrap, how much work would it be to switch?

Most of the AI and ML related programming uses frameworks that abstract away what brand of GPU you are using. They could care less whether it is nvidia or AMD.

except AMD produces nothing remotely close to the compute capability of an H100. they only compete at the gaming card level.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#84

Post by fnordpiglet »

pb7 wrote: post #46
fnordpiglet wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…

>Given my time in FAANG, I also speak from inside knowledge of how deeply f’ed these companies are Please tell us more of your expertise and deep insight, FAANG employee #1,908,680. Google has developed their own chips. Apple has developed their own chips. It’s really not that hard if your pockets are deep enough or the bottom line checks out. When Apple launches their AI offering this year, it’s not going to need NV…

They have, over many years and not against a company at the top of their game and with considerable help. Apples move is an ARM chip, not an Apple chip. Googles chips are competitive in spaces like network infrastructure. TPUs are illustrative of their inability to provide a viable alternative.

Apple isn’t going to launch with an Nvidia killing alternative, I’ll bet you $1,908,680 it’s backed by Nvidia.

They will likely use their neutral chips for local models, but their data center stuff will be 100% Nvidia.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#85

Post by HWR_14 »

behnamoh wrote: post #37
system2 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD is not too far behind. They can go wild in a few years.

In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month. AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.

Didn't AMD just commit to a CUDA compatible api? Did I hallucinate that?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#86

Post by ric2b »

cowsandmilk wrote: post #18
rgmerk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not having done any GPU programming...is most of the code out there tied to the Nvidia architecture? I mean, if AMD or somebody else builds a better mousetrap, how much work would it be to switch?

Most of the AI and ML related programming uses frameworks that abstract away what brand of GPU you are using. They could care less whether it is nvidia or AMD.

And yet I see tons of stuff requiring CUDA.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#87

Post by blackoil »

wbsun wrote: post #70
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

INAL. Antitrust is not against monopoly, but monopoly "abuse". MS is free to make an OS which everyone wants and free to be a monopoly. When they tried to leverage it to gain market share in the distinct market of browser and media players it became a problem.

So till ASML starts abusing the position they should be good legally.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#88

Post by fnordpiglet »

tuyguntn wrote: post #39
fnordpiglet wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…

don't underestimate market forces. Same could have been told about Intel, but Apple anyway beat them in some ways and took away big market share

Intel isn’t top of their game and haven’t been for many many years.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#89

Post by dheera »

jumploops wrote: post #45

The crypto bubble (circa 2017/2018 [0]) looks like an ant hill compared to the recent Gen AI-based gains! $68/share in August 2018 would be $722/share today. [0] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/08/22/the-cryptocurrency...

well $1000 of crypto in early-2017 would be worth $50000 now if you didn't panic sell in 2018 so ...

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#90

Post by throw0101b »

jgalt212 wrote: post #5
sebmellen wrote: post #2

And with a P/E ratio of 95, versus 25 and 59 for Google and Amazon, respectively!

agreed, it's very high, but with M2 growing again such outlandish valuations seem sustainable. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

> agreed, it's very high, but with M2 growing again such outlandish valuations seem sustainable.

You know whose M2 has also been rising for decades? Japan's. And yet for most of that time the Nikkei has been flat (even negative):

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17sx4

China's M2 has also been going up steadily:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MYAGM2CNM189N

What has the Shanghai Stock Exchange (index) been doing lately?

The UK's M2 has been going up continuously:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSM2UKQ

How's the FTSE 100?

> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

Now let's overlay the S&P 500:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1gvKR

A giant spike in M2 in 2020, and yet at the same time the S&P 500 dropped. M2 has been on a downward trend since April 2022, and the S&P 500 bottomed in ~October 2022, but has been rising since then—while at the same time M2 has been dropping.

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