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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

All of what they said isn't very controversial. Which part did you disagree with so vehemently that you decided to stalk their profile?

Over the last few years on HN, I've observed an increase in posts expressing a negative bias towards China. These posts consistently echo similar concerns with every distressing news about Evergrande or China. Occasionally, these accounts intentionally flout guidelines by using their profile for ideological battles [1].

Admittedly, I could have framed the question more politely about the origins of his aversion.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35254063

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#272

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. The effect of China's property bubble was an oversupply of houses, leading to unnaturally low property prices. The long term effect will be a consolidation in the property branch, leading to less supply and higher property prices. Whether this is good or bad…

Was there an oversupply in actually built properties in places people want to live? My understanding is that property prices in major cities are still massively unaffordable

What does it matter? All the people who bought apartments in the middle of nowhere as an investment now want to buy the apartments in real cities => thus more demand.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#274
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability

The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…

> When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children.

Don't ignore selection bias. When you're a kid, almost everyone you know is a child, and so almost every adult you know is a parent.

I don't know how old you are, but most of those societal changes - no need to marry and contraception - have been in place for decades. I'm in my early 30s and I wouldn't say staying single and not marrying is the "default" - yes, there's more people doing it, but I still know a lot of people who have coupled up and got married. I don't think I know anyone who's completely checked out of the idea of a relationship yet - the single people are still dating, often with the expressed desire of finding someone.

I have 2 kids, and the main reason people I talk to aren't considering a third is cost. Cost of an extra bedroom, cost of a larger car, incredibly high childcare costs - there's a very large real reduction in living standards that comes from going from 2 to 3. Compare that to my parents generation, where 3 or more siblings was the norm. I suspect a large part of falling birth rates isn't that loads more people are living child free lives, but that the people choosing to have kids are having fewer of them.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#275

Just as serious is the problem of poor quality concrete used in many buildings in china. Due to corruption, many new buildings have been built of concrete made with normal beach sand. Sand with salt causes iron to corrode and the concrete becomes brittle. It is commonly known as tofu dreg. Lots of buildings have already collapsed. If the bubble burst, and the property market collapses, it will hopefully make houses m…

It is always crazy to me the ratio of damage done to benefit received by people committing crime and fraud. I don't know how much one could possibly pocket using such scheme, but I'm certain that compared to the destruction of the entire project it is not that high of a percent.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#276

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

> affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. it is, but it's also complicated as the problems are quite a bit different in China then in the US the reason there was a bubble in China was because they sold (barely) affordable (apartment owned, not rented) housing to a huge amount of people while not producing it. Like they financed it similar to a snowball system. Group B buys housi…

Very curious how these opportunities for housing were marketed to the masses? These ghost cities you describe, I can see how the new housing can be presented as a life-changing opportunity, with nice images/videos but the reality is...a ghost town, facade of a city.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#277

Just as serious is the problem of poor quality concrete used in many buildings in china. Due to corruption, many new buildings have been built of concrete made with normal beach sand. Sand with salt causes iron to corrode and the concrete becomes brittle. It is commonly known as tofu dreg. Lots of buildings have already collapsed. If the bubble burst, and the property market collapses, it will hopefully make houses m…

It is always crazy to me the ratio of damage done to benefit received by people committing crime and fraud. I don't know how much one could possibly pocket using such scheme, but I'm certain that compared to the destruction of the entire project it is not that high of a percent.

They've already made their money and moved on to the next scam. Those living in the building are the ones who pay the ultimate price.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#279

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

> affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers.

Property developers are the answer to affordable housing. We cannot have affordable housing without building millions of new housing units. It's the home OWNERS who are dragging their feet to try to artificially inflate their property values

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…

> If the default is changing in China too, their population is going to shrink no matter what. yes, that might actually be _the_ biggest incoming issue china has (through much much less because of housing prices). Basically by combining one child politics with various cultural and economic effects lead to a very strongly favor for having a boy over a girl. Combine that with natural reduction in birthrate due to reduc…

Maybe I missed something as a European who doesn't always see what's happening over the great pond, but the sentence "hey we just copied Canada why are you complaining" confuses me.

Did I miss Canada embarking on a policy of euthanasia? I know that the treatment of native people had quite a few scandals in recent decades, did you want to allude to that?

Without wanting to make light of that situation, I think it is rather different in scale to what you propose.

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