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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#201
post #186
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A little bit, maybe, but probably not entirely. The joke is that debt investors have no memory. For example, Argentina has defaulted many times in recent memory but was still able to market a 100-year bond in 2017 (which it has already defaulted on).

This is more a sign that the bond rating process remains broken despite some superficial reforms after the 2008 financial crisis. The major rating agencies gave that Argentine bond a B rating which allows many institutional investors to buy, despite the reality that it's obviously garbage. Then when the next default hits the fund managers can blame their losses on the rating agencies. Nothing changes.

In what sense did the rating agencies do a terrible job here? First B is a junk rating, not investment grade. Secondly if you get paid 7.9% for six years plus a market price of 30 cents on the dollar you get back more than 75 cents on the dollar, which would have been comparable to the performance of US 30 year Treasury issued around the same time. People do realize that if the principal is not paid back then whether there is one year or 90 years left on the bond term is irrelevant, right? In other words if you suspect the default risk is high you might as well buy the 100 year instead of the 10 year to get compensated by the higher premium.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#202

Country Garden next?

Definitely. And country garden is bigger and more focused on properties in non-tier 1 cities than Evergrande, and has 4X more unfinished buildings than Evergrande, which means the collapse will be even greater

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#203
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically, I think replacing NY with Delaware may be a better comparison - specifically with respect to the Delaware Court of Chancery in which most large US companies litigate business issues.

Even more like City of London vs England.

Not really, if a company goes bankrupt in the City it is bankrupt. There’s no distinction, where’s as here most people believe the Chinese entity will continue to operate as a separate company.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#204

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

When large groups of assets and securities go to zero, it always has a a ripple effect on markets across many other assets. That was the story of Bear and Lehman in 2008-9.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#205

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers.

I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term.

That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Depends, are you one of those overseas Chinese police that threatens Chinese citizens abroad with their families' life in China unless they cooperate and stay silent on social media? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65305415 https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-arrested-operating-illega...

No I'm not. I'm just asking if you have first-hand experience with the Chinese regime or if your aversion comes from somewhere else.

You indiscriminately share links from the internet, including sinophobic YouTube videos, to reinforce your arguments. However, when presented with a counterargument supported by similar sources such as the IMF or other news outlets, you dismiss it as CCP lies.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#207

A couple of things to note: 1.) Why did it take Evergrande 3 years to liquidate? In western countries, liquidation happens in a few months. One should note that Evergrande did not get that big by itself; obviously it had the support of CCP elites to secure huge bank loans. Therefore, when it went bankrupt, the delay was to allow these elites to pull money/liquidable assets out of Evergrande. Thus after 3 years, Everg…

> Why did it take Evergrande 3 years to liquidate? In western countries, liquidation happens in a few months. No they don't, not for entities of any significant scale or complexity. Lehman Brothers was still in liquidation as of 2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_Lehman_Brothers

I mean 3 years to start liquidation. Lehman brother's liquidation started on 9/19/2008, a few days after it filed for bankruptcy on 9/15/2008. https://www.sipc.org/news-and-media/news-releases/20220928

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#208

Does anyone know a good source (news site, podcast, blogger) for info on china? Politics, economics, housing, etc.? Preferably something from a more asian centric source?

Somehow your only suggestions from HN have been the official propaganda paper of the CPC and a newspaper owned by Alibaba.

The news source you're looking for is Bill Bishop's Sinocism. It's a paid Substack. I haven't found any other news source that really gets into the nitty gritty of China happenings.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From CNN: >the implications for the company’s vast business in mainland China are unclear. >Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” and courts in the city are “extremely unlikely” to recognize the offshore liquidator, Silvers said. What we have here is a complex set of semi-international legal issues o…

South China Morning Post is trying to figure it out.[1] "A Hong Kong court on January 29 ordered the liquidation of China’s property giant Evergrande, but the firm said it would continue to operate in a case that has become a symbol of the nation’s deepening economic woes." "Given that most of the company’s assets are onshore, we do not think that offshore bondholders would receive substantial recovery proceeds from…

I am also trying to figure this out. I created a prediction market at Manifold whether a mainland Chinese court will recognize Hong Kong-appointed liquidator. Please make your bets and comments if you have insight!

https://manifold.markets/SanghyeonSeo/will-hong-kongappointe...

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#210

Does anyone know a good source (news site, podcast, blogger) for info on china? Politics, economics, housing, etc.? Preferably something from a more asian centric source?

People's Daily for the Party's view and SCMP for a slightly less biased view. There isn't really such a thing as free press covering China well, particularly in Asia. The closest thing was the Hong Kong press, but that got muzzled a few years back. RSF currently rates only Taiwan and South Korea as countries with free press in Asia, and those are not going to have the most unbiased view about China. https://rsf.org/e…

Japan press should be fine too.
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