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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#101

Post by berserk1010 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #99
berserk1010 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

cursory searches on western media reviews shows 20%, 25%, 30%. https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/even-beijing-home-prices-... https://fortune.com/2023/08/17/china-home-sales-worse-than-o... https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/tier-3-cities-ho... My sources are from real estate agents in China. Not sure why anyone would actually trust official numbers from China. China still claimed 5% gdp growth last year. p…

A Medium post isn't a source. Your fortune article says PRICES are only down 2.4% (roughly the "official" stats). Your other article is about T3 cities.

It's all in the articles

"Existing homes near Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s headquarters in Hangzhou have dropped about 25% from late 2021 highs, according to local agents."

"Even as of March, before a fresh slowdown, more than half of tier-2 and tier-3 cities saw existing-home prices fall more than 15% from peaks,"

"residential housing prices in tier 3 cities dropped by nearly 20%."

EDIT: Again, to get the real numbers, you need to have access to Chinese real estate agents. And these folks aren't going to be posting articles for everyone to read. Or if they post a video in anger, it will get taken down.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#102

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

berserk1010 wrote: post #101
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Medium post isn't a source. Your fortune article says PRICES are only down 2.4% (roughly the "official" stats). Your other article is about T3 cities.

It's all in the articles "Existing homes near Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s headquarters in Hangzhou have dropped about 25% from late 2021 highs, according to local agents." "Even as of March, before a fresh slowdown, more than half of tier-2 and tier-3 cities saw existing-home prices fall more than 15% from peaks," "residential housing prices in tier 3 cities dropped by nearly 20%." EDIT: Again, to get the real numbe…

A small section of a New Tier 1 city is not indicative of an entire T1 city.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#104

Post by colechristensen »

i_am_jl wrote: post #75
loeg wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. It's unclear how you liquidate the parent company without liquidating subsidiaries (who is going to buy Hengda RE?) and it seems like legally the HK decision should be binding: > Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” But China basically ignores HK in this.

I'm very naive about all of this, can I ask what this means? Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate, on paper this means that the Chinese subsidiary Hengda must also liquidate, but China's just... not going to liquidate Hengda? So instead of Evergrande's creditors dividing up Evergrande+Hengda's assets only Evergrande's assets are going to be liquidated? If that's right, how does that work? Does Hengda get bought a…

From CNN:

>the implications for the company’s vast business in mainland China are unclear.

>Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” and courts in the city are “extremely unlikely” to recognize the offshore liquidator, Silvers said.

What we have here is a complex set of semi-international legal issues on the other side of the world. I don't trust HN commentary on the subject. It seems very undecided for now and will be a sticky situation for China, Hong Kong, and foreign investors.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#106

Post by andruby »

Ericson2314 wrote: post #80
The_Colonel wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reddit comment explains this quite well: https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1adnx32/evergran... > HK is sort of what NY is to the US. It is a peripheral region with some minor degree of autonomy but because it just so happens to house the Chinese version of Wall Street this means it’s judiciary is a little bit special when it comes to dealing with insolvency and other corporate issues. This means that i…

Comparing HK to NYC is very reductive lol. Though it's kinda funny to imagine the Dutch held onto NYC until the 1990s after which there was some sort of unification process.

> In 1664, the English took over New Amsterdam and renamed it New York after the Duke of York (later James II & VII).

That’s a good 300 years before 1990 :)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Amsterdam

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#107

Post by kube-system »

i_am_jl wrote: post #75
loeg wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. It's unclear how you liquidate the parent company without liquidating subsidiaries (who is going to buy Hengda RE?) and it seems like legally the HK decision should be binding: > Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” But China basically ignores HK in this.

I'm very naive about all of this, can I ask what this means? Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate, on paper this means that the Chinese subsidiary Hengda must also liquidate, but China's just... not going to liquidate Hengda? So instead of Evergrande's creditors dividing up Evergrande+Hengda's assets only Evergrande's assets are going to be liquidated? If that's right, how does that work? Does Hengda get bought a…

> Does China just tell Evergrande's creditors "too bad"?

In a broad sense, that's how bankruptcy works in the west too. The government has rules for who gets paid first, and everyone else is SOL.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#108

Post by akeck »

The_Colonel wrote: post #58
threeseed wrote: post #37

This is only the Hong Kong business. Which is why it hasn't had the impact you would expect.

This reddit comment explains this quite well: https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1adnx32/evergran... > HK is sort of what NY is to the US. It is a peripheral region with some minor degree of autonomy but because it just so happens to house the Chinese version of Wall Street this means it’s judiciary is a little bit special when it comes to dealing with insolvency and other corporate issues. This means that i…

Technically, I think replacing NY with Delaware may be a better comparison - specifically with respect to the Delaware Court of Chancery in which most large US companies litigate business issues.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#109

Post by seanmcdirmid »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #86
HWR_14 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The foreigners probably loaned money to Evergrande a long time ago, before the issues started appearing.

The issues were apparent since 2000. The vast majority of Evergrande's outstanding foreign debt is from >2012. BlackRock, HSBC, and UBS poured in about $3B of the $25B in 2021 alone... And, I'm sorry - if you didn't see a risk doing that in 2021 - you're gonna lose all your money sooner or later. In BlackRock's case - it was primarily for 401k-ers for exposure to Chinese bonds. I think the US should've made it illega…

2012 was the year that Andrew Left publicized why he was shorting Evergrande stock, which he got banned for in 2016. I would say 2010 was when Evergrande started popping up in the news as possibly insolvent, 2000 is too early.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#110

Post by [deleted] »

downvotetruth wrote: post #15
aspenmayer wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is two words or a phrase. In a word: no. Specifically, it’s a compound word (singular). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_(linguistics)

With very few exceptions, English compound words are stressed on their first component stem; yet, stress appears both on the first syllable of NOM-uh-nuh-tiv and the dih-TUR verb portion.

[deleted]
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