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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#111

Post by pphysch »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #99
berserk1010 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

cursory searches on western media reviews shows 20%, 25%, 30%. https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/even-beijing-home-prices-... https://fortune.com/2023/08/17/china-home-sales-worse-than-o... https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/tier-3-cities-ho... My sources are from real estate agents in China. Not sure why anyone would actually trust official numbers from China. China still claimed 5% gdp growth last year. p…

A Medium post isn't a source. Your fortune article says PRICES are only down 2.4% (roughly the "official" stats). Your other article is about T3 cities.

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#113

Post by seanmcdirmid »

loeg wrote: post #71
spywaregorilla wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

300B of debt is the common number. shortfall unclear.

Allegedly 240B in assets, but who knows how real any of those are: https://www.reuters.com/business/embattled-china-evergrande-...

They might not be very liquid, and there might not be a market for them at the current "market price" (China will often suppress real estate sales to prevent market prices from dropping).

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#114

Post by berserk1010 »

pphysch wrote: post #111
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Medium post isn't a source. Your fortune article says PRICES are only down 2.4% (roughly the "official" stats). Your other article is about T3 cities.

[flagged]

What can I say, all I know about/care about is Chinese economy. I do provide a lot of valuable facts/links to the site

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#115

Post by seanmcdirmid »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #102
berserk1010 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all in the articles "Existing homes near Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s headquarters in Hangzhou have dropped about 25% from late 2021 highs, according to local agents." "Even as of March, before a fresh slowdown, more than half of tier-2 and tier-3 cities saw existing-home prices fall more than 15% from peaks," "residential housing prices in tier 3 cities dropped by nearly 20%." EDIT: Again, to get the real numbe…

A small section of a New Tier 1 city is not indicative of an entire T1 city.

Is HZ really considered a T1 city now? It is more like a rich T2 city.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#116

Post by dmoy »

andruby wrote: post #106
Ericson2314 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing HK to NYC is very reductive lol. Though it's kinda funny to imagine the Dutch held onto NYC until the 1990s after which there was some sort of unification process.

> In 1664, the English took over New Amsterdam and renamed it New York after the Duke of York (later James II & VII). That’s a good 300 years before 1990 :) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Amsterdam

GP is talking about an imaginary hypothetical situation in which NYC would be dutch held until the 1990s, not the real-world timeline

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#117

Post by bozhark »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #95
loeg wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. It's unclear how you liquidate the parent company without liquidating subsidiaries (who is going to buy Hengda RE?) and it seems like legally the HK decision should be binding: > Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” But China basically ignores HK in this.

HK is where the foreign debt is. This is freeing the Chinese business of its obligations of $25B in foreign debt. Presumably that makes for a better business. Who knows. Evergrande could easily be worth less than -$25B. No one wants to buy a business worth negative money. But it's definitely worth less negative money now.

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#118

Post by bozhark »

kube-system wrote: post #107
i_am_jl wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm very naive about all of this, can I ask what this means? Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate, on paper this means that the Chinese subsidiary Hengda must also liquidate, but China's just... not going to liquidate Hengda? So instead of Evergrande's creditors dividing up Evergrande+Hengda's assets only Evergrande's assets are going to be liquidated? If that's right, how does that work? Does Hengda get bought a…

> Does China just tell Evergrande's creditors "too bad"? In a broad sense, that's how bankruptcy works in the west too. The government has rules for who gets paid first, and everyone else is SOL.

Depends on what chapter is filled and approved

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#119

Post by dayjaby »

bozhark wrote: post #117
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HK is where the foreign debt is. This is freeing the Chinese business of its obligations of $25B in foreign debt. Presumably that makes for a better business. Who knows. Evergrande could easily be worth less than -$25B. No one wants to buy a business worth negative money. But it's definitely worth less negative money now.

[flagged]

What does income have to do with net worth?

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#120

Post by tsunamifury »

akeck wrote: post #108
The_Colonel wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reddit comment explains this quite well: https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1adnx32/evergran... > HK is sort of what NY is to the US. It is a peripheral region with some minor degree of autonomy but because it just so happens to house the Chinese version of Wall Street this means it’s judiciary is a little bit special when it comes to dealing with insolvency and other corporate issues. This means that i…

Technically, I think replacing NY with Delaware may be a better comparison - specifically with respect to the Delaware Court of Chancery in which most large US companies litigate business issues.

Even more like City of London vs England.
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