681–690 of 884 posts
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The earth has had some of the fastest warming ever in the last 15 thousand. During this time crop yields have increased dramatically. The trend is unmistakable, the warmer the planet, the more food we produce.
100% of people who mistake correlation for causation end up dead.
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If shit hits the fan everywhere else but North Europe remains safe - will it be business as usual there? Won't hundreds of millions of people (or more) from India, China and Africa flee to to wherever is safe?
> If shit hits the fan everywhere else but North Europe remains safe - will it be business as usual there? No, it will still suck, but it'll be the kind of suck you can survive without fleeing. Unless the thermohaline circulation changes significantly, in which case the northern Mediterranean coast starts to look like Toronto, Paris starts to look like Vancouver, and Scandinavia starts to look like Anchorage. > Won't…
Just a contextual note -- one thing Sabine says is: AI won't help because we know the exact solution, we just aren't willing to do it. Presumably she's referring to her first proposal -- a carbon tax. It's my understanding that there's nearly consensus among economists that a carbon tax is the most efficient solution to global warming, but political consensus that it would never happen when framed as a tax. If you do…
In order to be politically acceptable, a carbon tax should be phased in gradually and coupled with a reduction in income tax so as to make it revenue neutral. That way it can't be framed as just another government tax grab.
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That's assuming the situation follows your specified path. In reality, an economy transitioned to tech beyond fossil fuels probably enjoys much greater production dynamics. For instance, the US could build out nuclear power to satisfy base board power and then grow that base by which ever rate it decided per year. At some point, mass desalination of sea water becomes affordable because electricity drives down the pri…
You'll still mine oil for tires and roads, and you'll have gasoline as a byproduct. You'll use the gasoline to mine lithium and to transport used batteries. And you'll bury the batteries somewhere out of sight. Just like we're doing with nuclear. None of these solutions actually help preserve live. Life can thrive in a carbon rich atmosphere. It has before. But many years from now when the lithium batteries decay and…
In your version of the future, we’re all dead. In mine, the future might include a better life for all.
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Gas was just under $4 a liter every time I've been to Europe. That's about $16/gallon. People were driving to work, and sitting in traffic, just like they do in the US.
Gas was never above $2 per liter in Europe, you are mistaken. The highest gas price I've ever seen was close to $2 per liter, a bit below (~1.90, maybe).
Just a contextual note -- one thing Sabine says is: AI won't help because we know the exact solution, we just aren't willing to do it. Presumably she's referring to her first proposal -- a carbon tax. It's my understanding that there's nearly consensus among economists that a carbon tax is the most efficient solution to global warming, but political consensus that it would never happen when framed as a tax. If you do…
A global tax requires global enforcement No sovereign is going to agree to subordinate itself without all others doing the same Classic prisoners dilemma
They are universally rather timid in their scope, and politically fragile. So maybe they aren’t going to get us there, at least not in their current form.
But it’s going too far to say they just don’t exist or can’t exist.
We have plenty of treaties that inhibit states. Nuclear weapons, slavery, pollutants. Enlightentment and enlightened self-interest isn’t out of the question.
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You'll still mine oil for tires and roads, and you'll have gasoline as a byproduct. You'll use the gasoline to mine lithium and to transport used batteries. And you'll bury the batteries somewhere out of sight. Just like we're doing with nuclear. None of these solutions actually help preserve live. Life can thrive in a carbon rich atmosphere. It has before. But many years from now when the lithium batteries decay and…
We just fundamentally disagree on the criticality of hydrocarbons. In your version of the future, we’re all dead. In mine, the future might include a better life for all.
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A lot of them will be flooding on a regular basis.
We've started realizing that just now in the Netherlands. My parents live in a neighborhood with waterfront properties. Almost everybody except my parents have water standing in their crawl space. One house has a flooded cellar.