As a pro solar pragmatic engineer response:
> At the point my solar panel is installed all the death is built in.
No. The toxic waste ponds left after creating your solar panels remain with all the carcinogenic after effects. The large volume of low level radiactive waste from lithium processing for batery banks remains in ponds (again, see Lynas, Malaysia) awaiting possible pond leakages.
> no one can agree what the impact of Chernobyl is. For instance, the UN cites a report and claims 4000 dead post accident. The report itself says 9000. Greenpeace says 90,000.
So .. how many actual body bags definitive linked then?
Once a waste problem hits ANOVA analysis to tease out deaths from other background deaths it's an acedemic exercise not dissimilar to estimating cancer deaths from eWaste (like solar panel production waste bybroducts).
> billions of years for the fuel (uranium)
So .. hardly breaks down at all, barely radioactive is what you're saying here?
Lead has a half life in the billions of years also - anywhere there's granite has uranium .. and it's the daughter products like Radon gas that fill granite valleys and basements that kill (like a packet a day smoking habit).
> 20k years to move the elephants foot out of chrernoble.
Why move it when it's sufficient to glass it over and stay a few hundred feet back ?
> IF we grew nuclear to 2000 plants the accident rate is going to go UP.
By how much though? Designs have changed since Chernobyl, lessons were learned from Fukishima (which had fewer deaths than the earthquake events and fewer deaths than serious mining accidents).
There are risks everywhere - it's difficult for many to pragmatic assess and compare risk.
You appear myopic WRT risk in the sense that some risk appears much larger and other risk isn't seen at all.