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Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

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Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…

Progress in AI is one way. It doesn’t go backwards in the long term. As capabilities increase, the resources required to breach limits become available to smaller groups. First, the hyoerscalars. One day, small teams. Maybe individuals. For every limit that you desire for AI, each will be breached sooner or later. A hundred years or a thousand. Doesn’t matter. A man will want to set them free. Someone will want to wi…

The x-risk part here still seems pretty hypothetical. Why is progress in current LLM systems a clear and present threat to the existence of humanity, such that it should be banned by the government?

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#272
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…

Consider a world in which AI existential risk is real: where at some point AI systems become dramatically more capable than human minds, in a way that has catastrophic consequences for humanity. What would you expect this world to look like, say, five years before the AI systems become more capable than humans? How (if at all) would it differ from the world we are actually in? What arguments (if any) would anyone be…

This is exactly the kind of hypothetical argument I'm talking about. You could make this argument for anything — e.g. when radio was invented, you could say "Consider a world in which extraterrestrial x-risk is real," and argue radio should be banned because it gives us away to extraterrestrials.

The burden of proof isn't on disproving extraordinary claims, the burden of proof is on the person making extraordinary claims. Just like we don't demand every scientist spend their time disproving cold fusion claims, Bigfoot claims, etc. If you have a strong argument, make it! But circular arguments like this are only convincing to the already-faithful; they remind me of Christian arguments that start off with: "Well, consider a world in which hell is real, and you'll be tormented for eternity if you don't accept Jesus. If you're Christian, you avoid it! And if it's not real, well, there's no harm anyway, you're dead like everyone else." Like, hell is real is a pretty big claim!

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot to add "rent-seeking hypocrites". Not one of them actually advance either social concerns or technical approaches to AI. They seem to exist in a space with solicits funding to pay some mouth-piece top-dollar to produce a report haranguing existing AI model for some nebulous future threat. Same with the clowns in the Distributed AI Research Institute, all "won't somebody think of the children" style shrieki…

They’re a clergy demanding tithes to keep writing about divine judgement.

I like that analogy a lot - it captures exactly the holier-than-thou nonsense coming out of these places.

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI safety / x-risk folks have in fact made extensive and detailed arguments. Occasionally, folks arguing against them rise to the same standard. But most of the arguments against AI safety look a lot more like name-calling and derision: "nuh-uh, that's sci-fi and unrealistic (mic drop)". That's not a counterargument. > If we're talking about nuclear weapons, for example, the tech is clear, the pattern of human behavi…

TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…

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Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI safety / x-risk folks have in fact made extensive and detailed arguments. Occasionally, folks arguing against them rise to the same standard. But most of the arguments against AI safety look a lot more like name-calling and derision: "nuh-uh, that's sci-fi and unrealistic (mic drop)". That's not a counterargument. > If we're talking about nuclear weapons, for example, the tech is clear, the pattern of human behavi…

Is it not a bit disingenuous to assume all open source AI proponents would readily back nuclear proliferation? It's going to be hard to convince anyone if the best argument is terminator or infinite paperclips. The first actual existential threat is destruction of opportunity specifically in the job market. The same argument though can be made for the opposing side, where making use of ai can increase productivity an…

Indeed, both sentient hunt and destroy (ala Terminator) and resource exhaustion (ala infinite paperclips) are extremely unlikely extinction events due to supply chain realities in physical space. LLMs have developed upon largely textual amalgams, they are orthogonal to physicality and would need arduous human support to bootstrap an imagined AGI predecessor into havig a plausible auto-generative physical industrial capability. The supply chain for current semi-conductor technology is insanely complex. Even if you confabulate (like a current generation LLM I may add) an AGI's instant ability to radically optimize supply chains for its host hardware, there will still be significant human dependency on physical materials. Robotics and machine printing/manufacturing simply are not any where near the level of generality required for physical self-replication. These fears of extinction, undoubtedly born of stark cinematic visualization, are decidedly irrational and are most likely deliberately chosen narratives of control.

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#276
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think I'm with Dijkstra on this one: "The question of whether machines can think is about as relevant as the question of whether submarines can swim" Just a nitpick, but this is Turing, not Dijkstra. And it is in fact his argument in the famous "Turing Test" paper - he gives his test (which he calls "the imitation game") as an objective measure of something like AGI instead of the vague notion of "thinking", anal…

Thanks, that's not a nitpick at all. Can you provide a citation? It's all over the internet as a Dijkstra quote, and I'd like to be correct.

It seems I made some confusions, you were actually right. Apologies...

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#277

AI safety people are hypocrites. If they practiced what they preached, they'd be calling for all AI to be banned, ala Dune. There are AI harms that don't care about whether or not the weights are available, and are playing out today. I'm talking about the ability of any AI system to obfuscate plagiarism[0] and spam the Internet with technically distinct rewords of the same text. This is currently the most lucrative u…

> AI safety people are hypocrites. If they practiced what they preached, they'd be calling for all AI to be banned They are calling for all AI (above a certain capability level) to be banned. Not just open, not just closed, all . There are risks that apply only to open. There are risks that apply only to closed. But nobody should be developing AGI without incredibly robustly proven alignment, open or closed, any more…

I don’t think any of the proposals by AI x-risk people are actionable or even desirable. Comparing AI to nukes is a bad analogy for a few reasons. Nukes are pretty useless unless you’re a nation state wanting to deter other nations from invading you. AI on the other hand has theoretically infinite potential benefits for whatever your goals are (as a corporation, an individual, a nation, etc.) which incentives basically any individual or organization to develop it. Nukes also require difficult to obtain raw materials, advanced material processing, and all the other industrial and technological requirements, whereas AI requires compute, which exists in abundance and which seems to improve near exponentially year over year, which means individuals can develop AI systems without involving hundreds of people or leaving massive evidence of what they’re doing (maybe not currently due to computing requirements but this will likely change with increasing compute power and improved architectures and training methods). Testing AI systems also doesn’t result in globally measurable signals like nukes. Realistically making AI illegal and actually being able to enforce that would require upending personal computing and the internet, halting semiconductor development, and large scale military intervention to try to prevent non-compliant countries from attempting to develop their own AI infrastructure and systems. I don’t think it’s realistic to try to control the information on how to build AI, that is far more ephemeral than what it takes to make advanced computing devices. This is all for a hypothetical risk of AI doom, when it’s possible this technology could also end scarcity or have potentially infinite upside (as well as infinite down side, not discounting that, but you have to weigh the hypothetical risks/benefit in addition to the obvious consequences of all the measures required to prevent AI development for said hypothetical risk). I’ve watched several interviews with Yudkowsky and read some of his writing, and while I think he makes good points on why we should be concerned about unaligned AI systems, he doesn’t give any realistic solutions to the problem and it comes off more as fear mongering than anything. His suggestion of military enforced global prevention of AI development is as likely to work as solving the alignment problem on the first try (which he seems to have little hope for).

EDIT: Also, I’m not even sure that solving the alignment problem would solve the issue of AI doom, it would only ensure that the kind of doom we receive is directed by a human. I can’t imagine that giving (potentially) god-like powers to any individual or organization would not eventually result in abuse and horrible consequences even if we were able to make use of its benefits momentarily.

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your point, I think - and certainly I don't want to go anywhere near name-calling or derision, that doesn't help anyone. But I am reminded of arguments I've had with creationists (I am not comparing you with them, but sometimes the general tone of the debate). It seems like one side is making an extraordinary claim, and then demanding the other side rebut it, and that's not something that seems reasonabl…

> With AI, there still seems to be a lot of hand-waving between where we are now and "AGI". > I am more than prepared to admit that I may not be seeing (for various reasons) the evidence that this is near/possible - but I would also claim that nobody is convincingly showing any either. If I understand you correctly, then (1) you doubt that AGI systems are possible and (2) even if they are possible, you believe that h…

Also (3) that AGI in practice will necessarily pose any danger to humans is doubtful. After all Earth has billions of human level intelligence and nearly all of them are useless and if they are even mildly dangerous it's rather due to their numbers and disgusting biology than intelligence.

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#279
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, absolutely - such an entity obviously could! Modelling the behaviour of such an entity is very difficult indeed, as you'd need to make all kinds of assumptions without basis. However, you only need to model this behaviour once you've posited the likely existence of such an entity - and that's where (purely subjectively) it feels like there's a gap. Nothing has yet convinced me (and I am absolutely honest about th…

> those have stalled at local maxima every single time. It's challenging to encapsulate AI/ML progress in a single sentence, but even assuming LLMs aren't a direct step towards AGI, the human mind exists. Due to its evolutionary limitations, it operates relatively slowly. In theory, its functions could be replicated in silicon, enhanced for speed, parallel processing, internetworked, and with near-instant access to i…

> In theory, its functions could be replicated in silicon, enhanced for speed, parallel processing, internetworked, and with near-instant access to information. Therefore, AGI could emerge, if not from current AI research, then perhaps from another scientific branch.

Let's be clear, we have very little idea about how the human brain gives rise to human-level intelligence, so replicating it in silicon is non-trivial.

Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your point, I think - and certainly I don't want to go anywhere near name-calling or derision, that doesn't help anyone. But I am reminded of arguments I've had with creationists (I am not comparing you with them, but sometimes the general tone of the debate). It seems like one side is making an extraordinary claim, and then demanding the other side rebut it, and that's not something that seems reasonabl…

> With AI, there still seems to be a lot of hand-waving between where we are now and "AGI". > I am more than prepared to admit that I may not be seeing (for various reasons) the evidence that this is near/possible - but I would also claim that nobody is convincingly showing any either. If I understand you correctly, then (1) you doubt that AGI systems are possible and (2) even if they are possible, you believe that h…

For info: I don't believe (1), I do believe (2) although not that strongly - it's more likely to be a leap than a gradient, I suspect - I simply don't see anything right now that convinces me it's just over the next hill.

Your conclusion... maybe, yes - I don't think we're anywhere near a simulation approach with sufficient fidelity however. Also 82% is very specific!

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