Earlier quoted context omitted.
TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…
Progress in AI is one way. It doesn’t go backwards in the long term. As capabilities increase, the resources required to breach limits become available to smaller groups. First, the hyoerscalars. One day, small teams. Maybe individuals. For every limit that you desire for AI, each will be breached sooner or later. A hundred years or a thousand. Doesn’t matter. A man will want to set them free. Someone will want to wi…
Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
271–280 of 405 posts
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…
Consider a world in which AI existential risk is real: where at some point AI systems become dramatically more capable than human minds, in a way that has catastrophic consequences for humanity. What would you expect this world to look like, say, five years before the AI systems become more capable than humans? How (if at all) would it differ from the world we are actually in? What arguments (if any) would anyone be…
The burden of proof isn't on disproving extraordinary claims, the burden of proof is on the person making extraordinary claims. Just like we don't demand every scientist spend their time disproving cold fusion claims, Bigfoot claims, etc. If you have a strong argument, make it! But circular arguments like this are only convincing to the already-faithful; they remind me of Christian arguments that start off with: "Well, consider a world in which hell is real, and you'll be tormented for eternity if you don't accept Jesus. If you're Christian, you avoid it! And if it's not real, well, there's no harm anyway, you're dead like everyone else." Like, hell is real is a pretty big claim!
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
You forgot to add "rent-seeking hypocrites". Not one of them actually advance either social concerns or technical approaches to AI. They seem to exist in a space with solicits funding to pay some mouth-piece top-dollar to produce a report haranguing existing AI model for some nebulous future threat. Same with the clowns in the Distributed AI Research Institute, all "won't somebody think of the children" style shrieki…
They’re a clergy demanding tithes to keep writing about divine judgement.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI safety / x-risk folks have in fact made extensive and detailed arguments. Occasionally, folks arguing against them rise to the same standard. But most of the arguments against AI safety look a lot more like name-calling and derision: "nuh-uh, that's sci-fi and unrealistic (mic drop)". That's not a counterargument. > If we're talking about nuclear weapons, for example, the tech is clear, the pattern of human behavi…
TBQH, most of the AI safety x-risk arguments — different than just "AI safety" arguments in the sense that non-x-risk issues don't seem worth banning AI development over — are generally pretty high on the hypotheticals. If you feel the x-risk arguments aren't pretty hypothetical, can you: 1. Summarize a good argument here, or 2. Link to someone else's good argument? I feel like hand-waving the question away and sayin…
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI safety / x-risk folks have in fact made extensive and detailed arguments. Occasionally, folks arguing against them rise to the same standard. But most of the arguments against AI safety look a lot more like name-calling and derision: "nuh-uh, that's sci-fi and unrealistic (mic drop)". That's not a counterargument. > If we're talking about nuclear weapons, for example, the tech is clear, the pattern of human behavi…
Is it not a bit disingenuous to assume all open source AI proponents would readily back nuclear proliferation? It's going to be hard to convince anyone if the best argument is terminator or infinite paperclips. The first actual existential threat is destruction of opportunity specifically in the job market. The same argument though can be made for the opposing side, where making use of ai can increase productivity an…
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think I'm with Dijkstra on this one: "The question of whether machines can think is about as relevant as the question of whether submarines can swim" Just a nitpick, but this is Turing, not Dijkstra. And it is in fact his argument in the famous "Turing Test" paper - he gives his test (which he calls "the imitation game") as an objective measure of something like AGI instead of the vague notion of "thinking", anal…
Thanks, that's not a nitpick at all. Can you provide a citation? It's all over the internet as a Dijkstra quote, and I'd like to be correct.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#277AI safety people are hypocrites. If they practiced what they preached, they'd be calling for all AI to be banned, ala Dune. There are AI harms that don't care about whether or not the weights are available, and are playing out today. I'm talking about the ability of any AI system to obfuscate plagiarism[0] and spam the Internet with technically distinct rewords of the same text. This is currently the most lucrative u…
> AI safety people are hypocrites. If they practiced what they preached, they'd be calling for all AI to be banned They are calling for all AI (above a certain capability level) to be banned. Not just open, not just closed, all . There are risks that apply only to open. There are risks that apply only to closed. But nobody should be developing AGI without incredibly robustly proven alignment, open or closed, any more…
EDIT: Also, I’m not even sure that solving the alignment problem would solve the issue of AI doom, it would only ensure that the kind of doom we receive is directed by a human. I can’t imagine that giving (potentially) god-like powers to any individual or organization would not eventually result in abuse and horrible consequences even if we were able to make use of its benefits momentarily.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#278Earlier quoted context omitted.
I understand your point, I think - and certainly I don't want to go anywhere near name-calling or derision, that doesn't help anyone. But I am reminded of arguments I've had with creationists (I am not comparing you with them, but sometimes the general tone of the debate). It seems like one side is making an extraordinary claim, and then demanding the other side rebut it, and that's not something that seems reasonabl…
> With AI, there still seems to be a lot of hand-waving between where we are now and "AGI". > I am more than prepared to admit that I may not be seeing (for various reasons) the evidence that this is near/possible - but I would also claim that nobody is convincingly showing any either. If I understand you correctly, then (1) you doubt that AGI systems are possible and (2) even if they are possible, you believe that h…
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh, absolutely - such an entity obviously could! Modelling the behaviour of such an entity is very difficult indeed, as you'd need to make all kinds of assumptions without basis. However, you only need to model this behaviour once you've posited the likely existence of such an entity - and that's where (purely subjectively) it feels like there's a gap. Nothing has yet convinced me (and I am absolutely honest about th…
> those have stalled at local maxima every single time. It's challenging to encapsulate AI/ML progress in a single sentence, but even assuming LLMs aren't a direct step towards AGI, the human mind exists. Due to its evolutionary limitations, it operates relatively slowly. In theory, its functions could be replicated in silicon, enhanced for speed, parallel processing, internetworked, and with near-instant access to i…
Let's be clear, we have very little idea about how the human brain gives rise to human-level intelligence, so replicating it in silicon is non-trivial.
Re: Many AI safety orgs have tried to criminalize currently-existing open-source AI
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
I understand your point, I think - and certainly I don't want to go anywhere near name-calling or derision, that doesn't help anyone. But I am reminded of arguments I've had with creationists (I am not comparing you with them, but sometimes the general tone of the debate). It seems like one side is making an extraordinary claim, and then demanding the other side rebut it, and that's not something that seems reasonabl…
> With AI, there still seems to be a lot of hand-waving between where we are now and "AGI". > I am more than prepared to admit that I may not be seeing (for various reasons) the evidence that this is near/possible - but I would also claim that nobody is convincingly showing any either. If I understand you correctly, then (1) you doubt that AGI systems are possible and (2) even if they are possible, you believe that h…
Your conclusion... maybe, yes - I don't think we're anywhere near a simulation approach with sufficient fidelity however. Also 82% is very specific!