Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs • Hacker News Board

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#41

Post by jevoten » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:11 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #9

ethbr1 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Granted, but IMHO both of you are right. Current US mores ("be able to afford house, then start family") are driving the housing price:fertility correlation. But those mores can change, say, to become more aligned with the non-US, multi-generational world. And honestly, I think that would be a net positive on US culture.

The longer total fertility rate is held down, the firmer the trajectory becomes. Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pr... https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-s... https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist..…

> Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR.

So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible.

[1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu...

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#42

Post by wait_a_minute » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:12 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

wait_a_minute wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fe…

https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-... > Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 p…

> 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 percent decrease in births among non-homeowners in an average metropolitan area

How many average metropolitan areas experienced 10% increases in home prices? That’s a lot to decrease births by just 1%

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#43

Post by xenonite » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:12 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

Sure I am still sharing my flat, but doing so since 20 years with no end in sight. Living in a metro area in Europe, barely any holiday travel, saving to buy a little flat someday. And my income is above average.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#44

Post by titanomachy » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:12 PM UTC

sefrost wrote: post #27

HPsquared wrote: post #26

Every year for the last 5 I've thought "this must surely be the top of the market, I'll wait".. And every year they went up. Now interest rates have gone up too, to add insult to injury. Just going to leave for greener pastures, I think.

Where are you and where are you heading to?

Earth; Mars

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#45

Post by JamesBarney » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:12 PM UTC

advael wrote: post #32

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

No, the vast overwhelming majority of people in major cities (where the jobs are) rent houses with roommates or live in small apartments. Moreso than in previous generations. Renting a house with roommates is increasingly the best long-term plan even many 30-somethings I know can ever hope to afford The instinct to assume that trends affecting entire generations of people are "personal choices" rather than economic i…

Here's the data you mention.

https://www.pewresearch.org/ft_18-01-12_sharedliving_feature...

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#46

Post by gnicholas » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:13 PM UTC

matrix87 wrote: post #28

Imagine being a young adult with parents in the Bay Area, and you didn't happen to major in tech or biotech or anything that pays well What should someone do in that case? Move to a cheaper area? It isn't all that obvious

I went to an alumni gathering in Palo Alto in 2007 and talked with a middle-aged dad about this. He was very clear-eyed: kids who grow up here do not have a right of return. The people who can pay for property here — largely due to jobs at fast-growing companies — will be the ones who live here in the future.

There is some level of parental wealth that will allow children to live here, even in the absence of a job that can pay the mortgage. This tends to be Atherton- or Woodside-level wealth.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#47

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:13 PM UTC

jevoten wrote: post #41

toomuchtodo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The longer total fertility rate is held down, the firmer the trajectory becomes. Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pr... https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-s... https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist..…

> Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible. [1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location..…

Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced?

40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participation, and it shrinks as the population shrinks.

https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-...

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#48

Post by gnicholas » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:14 PM UTC

aantix wrote: post #14

I'm surprised with remote work we haven't seen a resurgence of the small town. Towns within an hour of a bigger city, but small enough where the real estate is still reasonably priced. Maybe when this young adult generation starts to consider kids, this option might become attractive.

Totally agree. This is especially true with the ongoing growth of online schools.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#49

Post by MattPalmer1086 » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:14 PM UTC

ozr wrote: post #35

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

A pathological sort of comparison is much more common now. They assume that what their parents have (with 20+ years of work), or what they see on social media, is what they should have too. That they don't is perceived as a great injustice. You can see someone that has what you want and either a) work towards it, or b) complain. There's always a mix of both, but b) is very loud right now.

Young people today eh? A refrain as old as time.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#50

Post by kevin_thibedeau » Fri, Jan 12, 2024, 9:15 PM UTC

mullingitover wrote: post #23

atonse wrote: post #15

(Genuine questions, please don't misinterpret as negative judgement): How much of this is actually new as far as income vs costs, and how much of this is unwillingness to make sacrifices that older generations did? For example, in my 20s (20 years ago), it was very common for 20somethings to live in shared housing with 2-3 roommates. They would share kitchens, fridges, everything. And these houses weren't even that g…

> Are the prospects actually there in smaller towns? They might be more with remote work now. The prospects in small towns are atrocious, that's why they're small towns. If you want to see what a post-apocalyptic world is like, just drive through a random small town in the midwest. There's a downright spooky vibe to them, they're sprinkled with abandoned and rotting buildings. The dream of remote work is largely dead…

Small towns have fundamental economic problems that make living there a hard compromise. Third tier cities away from hot spot destinations can be comfortable places to live with much more affordable housing.