Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
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Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#2I don’t think society has yet realized the cascading effects this will have on fertility rate and compression of the demographic pyramid.
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#3I don’t think society has yet realized the cascading effects this will have on fertility rate and compression of the demographic pyramid.
I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fertility rate quite a bit as long as we can otherwise keep employment solid.
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#4I don’t think society has yet realized the cascading effects this will have on fertility rate and compression of the demographic pyramid.
I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fe…
https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-...
> Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 percent decrease in births among non-homeowners in an average metropolitan area. However, the negative effect among non-owners is offset by a 4.5 percent increase in births among current homeowners, who are now wealthier. The total fertility effect of an increase in house prices varies across demographic groups, largely because their rates of homeownership differ. The authors conclude that "house prices are a relevant factor in a couple's decision to have a baby."
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17485/w174...
(look to South Korea if you want to see the future: https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-tren... ["The number of babies expected per woman probably dropped this year to 0.72 and will continue to fall through 2025, when it’s expected to reach 0.65, the statistical office said Thursday in its latest population forecasts. South Korea already has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.78 as of 2022."])
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#5This may also indicate that parents are living in areas that children are (or forced to be) satisfied with.
Many of my contemporaries moved from their parents home not because it was cheap, but because they wanted to be in another location.
If they were staying in the same area, they’d often live at home until marriage, etc.
Because why live in a small apartment when you can live in a much bigger house that even comes with various other support, and cooked meals?
Some would do that and even pay rent to the parents that was equivalent or higher than an apartment would be.
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#6I don’t think society has yet realized the cascading effects this will have on fertility rate and compression of the demographic pyramid.
I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fe…
The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have.
> Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood.
That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money.
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fe…
https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-... > Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 p…
Granted, but IMHO both of you are right.
Current US mores ("be able to afford house, then start family") are driving the housing price:fertility correlation.
But those mores can change, say, to become more aligned with the non-US, multi-generational world.
And honestly, I think that would be a net positive on US culture.
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#8I wonder how much of this is also due to either an unwillingness to live with someone or difficulty making friends? I know that where I live the rent on a 1 bedroom apartment would be difficult for most young people, but half of a 2 bedroom apartment would be do-able at minimum wage. For reference, I am thinking 1500 and 1800 per month respectively for rent on 1 and 2 bedroom apartments, which seems to be the going rate locally for a decent but not luxury place.And local minimum wage is 15 an hour
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-... > Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 p…
Granted, but IMHO both of you are right. Current US mores ("be able to afford house, then start family") are driving the housing price:fertility correlation. But those mores can change, say, to become more aligned with the non-US, multi-generational world. And honestly, I think that would be a net positive on US culture.
The longer total fertility rate is held down, the firmer the trajectory becomes. Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR.
https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pr...
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-s...
https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist...
Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-... > Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 p…
Granted, but IMHO both of you are right. Current US mores ("be able to afford house, then start family") are driving the housing price:fertility correlation. But those mores can change, say, to become more aligned with the non-US, multi-generational world. And honestly, I think that would be a net positive on US culture.
We are seeing the same correlations in Europe, even in multigenerational-friendly countries; so this is not anything anyone has seen before.