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Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

cleantechnica.com

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Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#101

Post by alfor »

orenlindsey wrote: post #50

We really shouldn't have waited this long to start transitioning to clean energy. If 2050 really is the point of no return (somewhere around then, from what I've heard), we'll have to replace over a century of infrastructure in about 20 years. And scaling is the hardest part. (we've already done some scaling, but renewables only account for ~20% of US energy, so we have to 5x that) Then, there's less developed countr…

Solar and batteries are on an expodential path.

The cost is going down so fast it won't make sense to have anything else.

I think that by 2035 most of the transition will be done even if we don't have major new developpement, but if you look at what AI is finding in new materials I think that the next few years are going to be very weird.

Look into Tony Seby, he predicted the current path 10y ago.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#102

Post by s1artibartfast »

antisthenes wrote: post #90
Ajedi32 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing to consider is that if that's profitable to do at house scale, then it's probably even more profitable to do at grid scale and you'll likely be out-competed by utility companies. Edit: Unless you're taking advantage of tax incentives to do it at house scale. Its hard to beat the economics of just being handed free money.

> One thing to consider is that if that's profitable to do at house scale, then it's probably even more profitable to do at grid scale and you'll likely be out-competed by utility companies. Depends. It may be more profitable for utility companies, but they keep the profit of the economies of scale. It is almost never passed on to the customer. If you DIY your own energy system, you're free to keep all the surplus ge…

Only if they let you by giving you a big price discount to charge

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#103

Post by megaman821 »

jcampbell1 wrote: post #97
tomohawk wrote: post #83

This makes me sad, as it means the industrialization of non-urban lands that will get covered with panels. Croplands. Wild lands. If subsidies were only provided for panels that cover existing urban hardscapes, it would be much better.

We currently have 40 million acres of corn dedicated to ethanol production. All our energy needs can be met by 15 million acres of solar panels. The same set of facts that make you sad make me happy.

But can I cut a maze out of solar panels?

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#104

Post by alfor »

tomohawk wrote: post #83

This makes me sad, as it means the industrialization of non-urban lands that will get covered with panels. Croplands. Wild lands. If subsidies were only provided for panels that cover existing urban hardscapes, it would be much better.

Parking, flat roof, unprofitable argriculture land, there is plenty of space.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#105

Post by unethical_ban »

ren_engineer wrote: post #64

I love having our energy grid being reliant on a geopolitical rival. I'm sure this won't end in disaster >China makes 80% of global solar panels >controls 95% of overall supply chain for solar https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/energy/china-to-dominate...

I dislike when people criticize something without being inquisitive or acknowledging the elephant in the room.

What is your alternative? Continue heating the planet through burning oil/NG/coal? Develop solar panels domestically and wait to flip to solar (missing out on benefits in the meantime)? Nuclear?

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#106

Post by [deleted] »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10
epistasis wrote: post #3

The EIA (and the IEA) have historically underpredicted solar deploys, to a comical level. They need 2-4 years of spot on predictions before they can regain credibility on their projections, IMHO. So I would put these projections as a bare minimum floor on how much solar will get installed. The true number is likely quite a bit higher.

> would put these projections as a bare minimum floor on how much solar will get installed Is there evidence they haven't fixed this bias? The EIA and IEA are in general credible forecasters. Assuming past errors will persist doesn't sound like a good strategy unless you have methodological clues that they haven't made adjustments.

[deleted]

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#107

Post by dylan604 »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #100
dylan604 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An individual can take action now whereas the grid scale action is molasses like. It's even worse when your state is not in the pocket of but the actual pocket of Big Oil

But an individual can't take action without the grid taking action to provide customers with the different pricing rates.

What? The entire premise was that it is cheaper at night. Thanks for jumping into the middle of the convo though and trying to jerk the wheel.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#108

Post by MostlyStable »

jakewins wrote: post #40
tallowen wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the implication is that we'll see a further split around pricing. One thing that stood out to me is that in the case of thermal loads (perhaps your dishwasher but more realistically a hotwater heater). It will become more worthwhile for that system to know when high and low electricity prices are and store more heat (i.e. hotwater) at low electricity prices and wait until prices fall again to refill it. In th…

Recall your entire house is a thermal battery too! In fact, all the four major energy loads in a house - Heating/Cooling, Water heating, EV Charging, House Battery - are extremely flexible. But we're still lacking good standards for reliable control. Today we do stuff like tell your HVAC to stop via vendor X's cloud API. What happens if your router dies after we send a "stop" command in the middle of the winter? For…

Tangentially related gripe:

My biggest issue in making this work reliably is that my "smart" thermostat is trying to be too smart.

Our power gets cheap at 10pm. I can't just set my HVAC to turn on at 10 and go full blast until power gets expensive again at 6am. I have to program a set temperature at a time. if I set that at 10pm, my thermostat tries to make sure that it _reaches_ that temp at exactly the time. So it will actually turn on an hour early. So I have to guess how long it will take my HVAC system to reach whatever temperature I have it set to, and then set it for that much time _after_ 10PM. It's inexact and annoying, and means that I am leaving performance on the table.

I have idly searched a few times for a replacement thermostat that would interact locally with home assistant and have had zero luck (partially due to the fact that my system is complicated and seems to have a non-standard wiring setup).

Everything else: hot water heater, EV, laundry, etc. are all trivially easy to make run during the desired periods. But the biggest use of energy I have (yes, larger than charging the car) is a PITA to make it play well with TOU billing.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#109

Post by [deleted] »

ren_engineer wrote: post #64

I love having our energy grid being reliant on a geopolitical rival. I'm sure this won't end in disaster >China makes 80% of global solar panels >controls 95% of overall supply chain for solar https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/energy/china-to-dominate...

[deleted]

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#110

Post by epistasis »

ctoth wrote: post #72
epistasis wrote: post #3

The EIA (and the IEA) have historically underpredicted solar deploys, to a comical level. They need 2-4 years of spot on predictions before they can regain credibility on their projections, IMHO. So I would put these projections as a bare minimum floor on how much solar will get installed. The true number is likely quite a bit higher.

No, 2050 isn't some sort of tipping point[0]. [0]: https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/to-avoid-the-worst-impacts-...

This link has no relevance to my comment or to this thread.
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