Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
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Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#2I found this podcast with Jesse Jenkins to be a really helpful start to understand non fixed energy resources.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-the-sun-isnt-alwa...
I thought that the most cost effective way to supply energy would require a certain amount of base load. It seems like this is a misunderstanding because of how much cheaper and more available these non fixed resources are than fixed resources. Energy this cheap gives us a huge incentive to change our energy use patterns to match power abundance rather than to take energy demand as a constant.
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#3The EIA (and the IEA) have historically underpredicted solar deploys, to a comical level. They need 2-4 years of spot on predictions before they can regain credibility on their projections, IMHO.
So I would put these projections as a bare minimum floor on how much solar will get installed. The true number is likely quite a bit higher.
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#4Excellent.
Witness the power of the cost learning curve (Wright's Law).
Per Jenny Chase, we also need new wind power generation capacity to keep pace. If solar gets too far ahead of wind on the cost learning curve, it'll (further) spoil the financing of wind. Our glorious green energy future requires both wind and solar, in roughly equal measure.
This Volts episode is quite good:
Checking in on solar power - A conversation with Bloomberg NEF's Jenny Chase. [2023-11-29]
"longtime solar industry analyst Jenny Chase, author of Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon, catches us up on the current state of the global solar industry and looks to where it’s going."
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#5Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#6Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.
Why sad?
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#7Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.
According to the charts, battery storage seems to be growing roughly in parity.
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#8Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.
This forecast has wind up as well, just not as much as solar.
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#9Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.
There's room for both. Solar works when the wind is calm. It's probably good to be diversified.
Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025
#10The EIA (and the IEA) have historically underpredicted solar deploys, to a comical level. They need 2-4 years of spot on predictions before they can regain credibility on their projections, IMHO. So I would put these projections as a bare minimum floor on how much solar will get installed. The true number is likely quite a bit higher.
> would put these projections as a bare minimum floor on how much solar will get installed
Is there evidence they haven't fixed this bias? The EIA and IEA are in general credible forecasters. Assuming past errors will persist doesn't sound like a good strategy unless you have methodological clues that they haven't made adjustments.