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What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

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Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#181

Post by slap_shot »

DeRock wrote: post #162
yboris wrote: post #158

My favorite mental visualization I came up with: imagine driving from New Jersey to Florida (substitute with a long drive you had). Mine was about 1,200 miles which at 60 miles per hour is 20 hours. That's 72,000 seconds of mind-numbing driving. Now if during the entire, exhausting, 20 hours of driving, you press a button, and it falls within the "danger zone" that lasts 15 seconds, you lose. The above example is bet…

15 seconds danger zone / 72,000 seconds of driving = 1 in 4,800 Any reason you chose those numbers? Trying to understand the significance of those odds.

Also curious! But even that does help to appreciate what a 1:4800 chance something is. I really like that frame of reference.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#182

Post by fsckboy »

i immediately thought of the 2^20th examples. I often marvel at the 2^10th is 1000ish coincidence

but people say things like "1 in a million" because it sounds incalculably rare, so I'm not sure I understand the goal here? to make an exaggeration sit on an intuitive scale as if it was meant literally? if successful that will make being "literally one in a million" fall out of favor just as literally has.

one thing I took away from modestly extensive study of linguistics was, people need to stop thinking that words have strict definitions, and realize that words adopt definitions to suit what people are trying to say. What did they mean is more important than what did they say.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#183

Post by tyingq »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #167
erostrate wrote: post #133

The following are all ~ 1 in a million chance of death, or 1 micromort: Travelling 6 miles (9.7 km) by motorcycle Travelling 17 miles (27 km) by walking Travelling 20 miles (32 km) by bicycle Travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car Travelling 1,000 miles (1,600 km) by jet Travelling 6,000 miles (9,656 km) by train But switching from car to bicycle for short trips still increases life expectancy due to health effects. So…

Chicago to LA is about 2,000 miles. So in the article about 200 miles driving (in California) is 1 in a million chance of dying. So lets use that number nationwide to be lazy. Now we can move a decimal point over. So the death chances of a Chicago to LA drive is 100,000 in one. But you drive back, so then its that twice. Once in 50,000 people dying on a Chicago to LA and back roadtrip is extremely frightening. How ma…

> We downplay what it means to drive

I wondered about that reading some of the comments about the 737 Max. We routinely travel in exponentially more risky ways all the time, yet we expend time thinking about the safety benefit of avoiding a specific type of aircraft.

Not downplaying airline safety as a whole there, but thinking about it for yourself on a personal level is maybe not moving the needle.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#184

Post by walthamstow »

MobileVet wrote: post #101

I absolutely love the “Becker Bottle”. It gives you the ability to truly visualize this concept. Super fun to play with and a great learning aid for chemistry classes. https://www.flinnsci.com/becker-bottle-one-in-a-million/ap45...

Wonderful concept. Thanks for bringing to my attention

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#185

Post by neilkk »

Strilanc wrote: post #179
neilkk wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you are doing math with odds as though they are fractions or ratios, which is deeply incorrect. 20:1 is not the reciprocal of 1:20 but the complement. Odds ratios and similar calculations do not work like this. You can do this type of calculation using X:1 odds or 1:X odds but not both in the same calculation. Or perhaps you can provide a reference to a justification of this type of calculation?

Search "decibels" in https://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes for the explanation. I think you're just wrong about needing everything to be in the form X:1 or 1:X. When I compute the ratio of 1000000:1 divided by 1:20 it gives 1000000:(1/20) then scaling both sides by the same factor gives 20000000:1.

Your reference definitely doesn't show a calculation of the type you are trying to do. Likelihood ratios are not the same as odds ratios; they do not have the problem I described.

I would be very surprised if you can find any reference at all to the number you describe as 'evidence bits', or anything equivalent, made by anyone who can show an understanding of basic probability, statistics, or information theory.

I understand how you get 20,000,000 as the answer to the calculation you carry out. My point is that that number is not meaningful in any way.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#186

Post by physicles »

tyingq wrote: post #183
drzaiusapelord wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chicago to LA is about 2,000 miles. So in the article about 200 miles driving (in California) is 1 in a million chance of dying. So lets use that number nationwide to be lazy. Now we can move a decimal point over. So the death chances of a Chicago to LA drive is 100,000 in one. But you drive back, so then its that twice. Once in 50,000 people dying on a Chicago to LA and back roadtrip is extremely frightening. How ma…

> We downplay what it means to drive I wondered about that reading some of the comments about the 737 Max. We routinely travel in exponentially more risky ways all the time, yet we expend time thinking about the safety benefit of avoiding a specific type of aircraft. Not downplaying airline safety as a whole there, but thinking about it for yourself on a personal level is maybe not moving the needle.

Agreed. It must’ve been terrible for the people on that plane, but I don’t think it’s worth my time to worry about what plane I’m flying on, or what the maintenance record of the airline is. For developed countries, they’re super good enough.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#187

Post by unbalancedevh »

cduzz wrote: post #157
lazystar wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Need a source on this, please. It sounds real at first look, but I cant find any links and it's very similar to the boston molasses flood of 1918 story, especially that last bit - "The event entered local folklore and residents reported for decades afterwards that the area still smelled of molasses on hot summer days." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Molasses_Flood

It's 100% made up. It's an attempt to make fun of people who would consider it unlikely that anyone would ever stack cheese as a way to mitigate safety risks.

'I can't find the wiki link" was a good clue. I'll have to remember that line next time I'm kidding someone!

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#188

Post by IshKebab »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #169
yboris wrote: post #158

My favorite mental visualization I came up with: imagine driving from New Jersey to Florida (substitute with a long drive you had). Mine was about 1,200 miles which at 60 miles per hour is 20 hours. That's 72,000 seconds of mind-numbing driving. Now if during the entire, exhausting, 20 hours of driving, you press a button, and it falls within the "danger zone" that lasts 15 seconds, you lose. The above example is bet…

> imagine having to throw a quarter out of the window, hoping for it to land within the proper 1 inch section of the road This idea also helps to illustrate something which is intuitive to me but seemingly hard to explain. Sometimes when an event occurs people will exclaim, "Wow, what are the odds of that?!" and then if it turns out to be a seemingly unlikely event, then it becomes "wow, it's crazy that happened!". B…

It's because they think "that" is "meeting Dave from my previous job on holiday in Turin!" but it's actually "meeting one of the hundreds of acquaintances you've picked up over your life at any point when you're away from home at any time".

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#189

Post by quickthrower2 »

Snow_Falls wrote: post #114
quickthrower2 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would put the odds of Mark Xu’s license having that name on it at about 15%. Because Mark is probably an anglicised asian name.

Not to mention that many Chinese immigrants will give their children European names.

In that case the license will match?

The question is are you using the name on your drivers license, which is probably the one on your birth certificate.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#190

Post by jodrellblank »

Recursing wrote: post #50

Reminds me of https://markxu.com/strong-evidence «One time, someone asked me what my name was. I said, “Mark Xu.” Afterward, they probably believed my name was “Mark Xu.” I’m guessing they would have happily accepted a bet at 20:1 odds that my driver’s license would say “Mark Xu” on it. The prior odds that someone’s name is “Mark Xu” are generously 1:1,000,000. Posterior odds of 20:1 implies that the odds ratio of me…

There's something so wrong with that logic. Imagine it as:

Mark: "I've thought of a number between one and a billion and written it down. The number I wrote down was 6,822,172"

Recursing (you): "ok"

Mark: "ohh you believe me? Then let's take a bet, if I did write down 6,822,172 then you win. If I wrote down any other number between one and a billion then I win".

Would you take that bet? I think you'd be suspicious.

Mark: "I predict that Recursing would take that bet, happily, because why wouldn't they believe me? Therefore them taking the bet is very strong evidence that I actually did write down 6,822,172".

You can't use your prediction about someone else's behaviour as evidence!

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