Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 149 posts

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#131

Post by seanmcdirmid »

denton-scratch wrote: post #86
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t we just be back to the 1950-1970s again? China bans all trade, except through Hong Kong. The rest of the world doesn’t notice much, China is really poor. Just look at North Korea, that is basically what juche is.

> except through Hong Kong. Pardon my ignorance. Why would China make that exception? Is Hong Kong a more important trading centre than (say) Shanghai?

China used Hong Kong as a neutral trading ground when it was closed off (to sell things and import things), which is why much of China's industrial capacity was built up in the Pearl Delta region. If China closed up again, they could be using Hong Kong again like they did in the past, especially if they keep it separate from the rest of mainland administration like they do today. But it isn't guaranteed.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#132

Post by seanmcdirmid »

corethree wrote: post #117
denton-scratch wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> except through Hong Kong. Pardon my ignorance. Why would China make that exception? Is Hong Kong a more important trading centre than (say) Shanghai?

Times change. A typical Chinese metropolis completely dwarfs hong Kong. That's why China was willing to back pedal on the autonomy deal for hong Kong because its no longer means much as an economic powerhouse. Almost every other Chinese city has left it in the dust. You know this, but a lot of people are just behind on the current economic reality. Not surprising given the speed at which china moves.

Hong Kong is still much more open than any city in the PRC for foreigners. If you care about trade, doing trade in Shanghai, Yiwu, Wuhan, etc...it isn't going to be as easy as it is Hong Kong even if it just means getting a visa and converting your capital into RMB.

Compare Pudong (or Beijing, or any PRC city) airport to HK airport. You can tell the commercial activity between each is on a different level, and that's just an analogy for how things work in China.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#133

Post by seanmcdirmid »

pi-e-sigma wrote: post #50
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think parent meant that China has explicit capital controls that you have to navigate to transfer money between countries. In the USA, this is just a wire and you don’t need a ton of documentation and approval to do it. The USA uses that ease of access as a carrot and a stick, the Chinese can’t use that as a carrot and a stick because they simply don’t have it.

That is simply not true. The US has a complex capital controls laws in place, mostly disguised as anti-money laundering rules.

Capital controls in the USA are reactionary, you are free to transfer money, you just have to ask forgiveness rather than permission if you do something bad. In the PRC, it is all about getting lots of permission to convert your life savings from RMB into USD because you are finally leaving china after 9 years of working there.

RMB is simply only limited convertible, it is not freely convertible like CHF, EUD, AUD, USD, JPY, etc...it isn't very useful for trade, and even the Chinese will convert to dollars and use the American financial system because the Chinese system is so limited.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#134

Post by seanmcdirmid »

corethree wrote: post #53
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t we just be back to the 1950-1970s again? China bans all trade, except through Hong Kong. The rest of the world doesn’t notice much, China is really poor. Just look at North Korea, that is basically what juche is.

The world is different now. Most of the manufacturing capabilities of the US has completely shifted over to china. So there would be damage to everyone now. I'm just asking about the extent of the damage. Is survival possible? Also I'm not saying ban all trade. Just ban all trade with the US. This would be the retaliatory tactic as that's where the pressure is coming from as china is directly challenging the US for t…

China would be back to where it was 40 years ago. Yes, we will have to open up factories to produce cheap plastic things, but no, we won't miss China for very long. They aren't as essential as they think they are.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#135

Post by seanmcdirmid »

pi-e-sigma wrote: post #82
a_crc wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

|Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then? Because the Taiwanese government paid for it to be there in the 80's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#History

Whoosh :)

I assume you are referring to yourself? It is well know that none of the semiconductor equipment manufacturing is not in Asia due to the PRC. So you get fabs, but not equipment to produce fabs or keep fabs running (all by design, so China doesn't gain much if they take over Korea, Japan, or Taiwan).

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#136

Post by epolanski »

The_Colonel wrote: post #120
epolanski wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never argued for that: > The way I see it, western countries and US should take a clear stand about Taiwanese statehood, and Taiwan needs to do it first on their own in order for the rest of the world to take a stand, as they legally still lay claim on the entirety of China (and beyond). and this: > This tension can only be relieved by de jure integrating Taiwan in Chinese statehood under very huge degrees of auton…

> This tension can only be relieved by de jure integrating Ukraine in Russia under very huge degrees of autonomy... > I argue that at some point there is a need for a de jure resolution of the Ukrainian matter or this issue will come again and again. How does that sound to your ears?

You know that there is no similarity at all between this and the taiwanese situation right?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#137

Post by corethree »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #134
corethree wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is different now. Most of the manufacturing capabilities of the US has completely shifted over to china. So there would be damage to everyone now. I'm just asking about the extent of the damage. Is survival possible? Also I'm not saying ban all trade. Just ban all trade with the US. This would be the retaliatory tactic as that's where the pressure is coming from as china is directly challenging the US for t…

China would be back to where it was 40 years ago. Yes, we will have to open up factories to produce cheap plastic things, but no, we won't miss China for very long. They aren't as essential as they think they are.

wishful thinking and a bit too biased towards patriotism. I'm looking for realistic answers here.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#138

Post by wkat4242 »

epolanski wrote: post #109
The_Colonel wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This tension can only be relieved by de jure integrating Taiwan in Chinese statehood under very huge degrees of autonomy You mean like the huge degrees of autonomy Hong Kong enjoys? That seems like such a huge strategic blunder by Xi. Instead of making it a positive example for Taiwan to follow, they made it a strong deterrent to a peaceful integration. > which has no support internationally It has no support inter…

HK is a bit different. It was a land lease and the Britons negotiated for a 50 year transition period before HK was fully assimilated. I fully agree with your conclusion and spirit though which is why I said that Taiwan has no reason for any kind of trust for a peaceful integration with the PRC.

Which turned out more like a 5 year transition period. Let's not forget.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#139

Post by KptMarchewa »

sofixa wrote: post #114
KptMarchewa wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you'd deliver fuel to the Japanese Empire until they directly attacked you. Or maybe even later, after all deals have to be kept right?

> I assume you'd deliver fuel to the Japanese Empire until they directly attacked you Japan attacked because they were running out of fuel and had to act quickly (either strike, or back down in China which they didn't want to). Without an embargo, they would have just continued their war in China.

It would surely be better to allow genocidal empire continue to expand, rather than profit selling them goods for a decade of genocide?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#140

Post by Gow8876 »

Just send in assassins. Those western countries leaders only have momentary leadership through voting election. After a couple elections, they are nobody. Consistently off them when they are nobody maybe together with their families. Do enough, western countries won't have enough law enforcers to protect. Remember Charlie Hebdo massacre? After that, many western countries dare not offend Islam. Xi needs to do this mass assassinations. Anyone dare to offend Kim? He did that too frequently.
Post reply on HN