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Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

reuters.com

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Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SMIC achieved a competitive 7nm node on their own. 5nm has also been achieved on their own, albeit the yields are not enough for mass production till 2024 and it doesn't uses EUV litography.

It’s a hack as I understand it, not good for volume production and design specific in a way that makes it non competitive.

The Huawei Mate 60 uses it which is definitely a massively produced device.

It uses DUV rather than EUV, thus it theoretically require many more steps and thus lead to lower yields.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#122
post #73

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> Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s Do you have a source on that? > AUKUS The one that is supposed to result in submarines getting delivered sometime in the 2030s at the earliest? Hardly relevant for the 20s.

> Do you have a source on that? Xi Jinping's own words. He continues to say publicly that China and Taiwan will be reunified, most recently at his meeting with Biden in SF and then again in his new years speech a few days ago. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38828960 He has been saying that for a decade without equivocation or ambiguity. If we take him at his word, then the optimal time for Xi to do it is in the…

> Xi Jinping's own words. He continues to say publicly that China and Taiwan will be reunified.

China has been saying it for 50 years, so that is just status quo.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#123
post #20

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Steve Hsu has had guests on his podcasts saying exactly this. There was already a domestic semiconductor industry but big players almost never used them since the big semiconductor companies were such a safe bet. Well, now they’re forced to use them, and they’re growing. With the fabs available to them they can’t produce latest gen very few nanometer dies, but for a lot of use cases that doesn’t matter. And of course…

That's what every Chinese fanboys on this forum keeps repeating: so many Chinese graduates! However, with unofficial 40% youth unemployment rate and 10k chip companies shutting down in 2023 https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/chi... , where would these graduates actually work? realistic answer is that they're right now delivering food or driving didi. or laying flat doing nothing.

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Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#124
post #119
post #99

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>>They have already proved time and time again to be able to make gigantic leaps, some of those, completely on their own in the sector. Yes, we shall see. An awful lot of those giant leaps were extremely dependent on technology that was either systematically forced to hand over from democratic countries, or outright stolen by espionage (see their fighter jet vs F35, and some sub technologies). Have the Chinese manage…

> Yes, we shall see. An awful lot of those giant leaps were extremely dependent on technology that was either systematically forced to hand over from democratic countries, or outright stolen by espionage (see their fighter jet vs F35, and some sub technologies). Here we go again. A little bit of reading here[0] and here[1]. [0] https://www.history.com/news/industrial-revolution-spies-eur... [1] https://en.wikipedia.o…

>>Here we go again.

Nonsense. No one denies your list of pages of Chinese inventions from prehistoric, ancient and imperial periods. No one is saying that the Chinese are some kind of inferior race or incapable of invention.

The present question is what can their society do NOW? Especially considering 1) Mao murdered & starved millions, w/strong emphasis on killing of "elites" and "educated" people in the "Great Leap Forward", which impairs their technological ability 2) China suffer a lot from brain drain to the west, and 3) they are an authoritarian society which has some inherent advantages (e.g., they can put a massive budget on Project X within days, and they can provide consistent funding over decades, vs the constant sea-saw we get in congress so NASA, NSF, etc. don't know their budget from one year to the next) and many disadvantages inherent in authoritarianism.

With those factors, and the current state of their economy, can they go it alone and maintain their aggressive expansionist policies?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#125
post #44

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Even if things don’t “end well” for Taiwan, it’s unlikely that China will obtain Taiwan‘s manufacturing abilities. They will rather be destroyed, to ensure that China doesn’t get their hands on them, and then everyone will suffer the consequences.

Taiwan is subject to the same equipment dependencies as China. They don’t make the machines, they import them from the Americans, Dutch, and Germans. If China took over Taiwan, they might be able to obtain Salem great semiconductor engineers (but they could just hire them already on work visas), maybe some plans for the next 2 or 3 years on chips they can’t fab without western equipment, but that’s it. Economically,…

TW banned their semi engineerings from working in PRC this year. Economically taking over TW short/medium term would basically be placing similar tech sanctions on US/west since TW has some sole source semi inputs for leading edge semi production. Depending on how long it takes western semi to replicate, it evens semi playing field.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you have a source on that? Xi Jinping's own words. He continues to say publicly that China and Taiwan will be reunified, most recently at his meeting with Biden in SF and then again in his new years speech a few days ago. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38828960 He has been saying that for a decade without equivocation or ambiguity. If we take him at his word, then the optimal time for Xi to do it is in the…

> Xi Jinping's own words. He continues to say publicly that China and Taiwan will be reunified. China has been saying it for 50 years, so that is just status quo.

They've meant it for 50 years, they just didn't have the capability to do it until recently.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately for the Chinese it's extremely tricky for even private capital to pick the winners in these spaces. I'd guess there is almost zero chance the Chinese government giving out free cash beat the market and even build the right stuff. Can they even build the light sources or optics for these devices. Don't Zeiss make the flattest mirrors ever made for this? There's probably hundreds of technologies that are…

They have already proved time and time again to be able to make gigantic leaps, some of those, completely on their own in the sector. Pouring billions in the sector highly increases the chances of breakthrough technologies. I personally think more competition in the space is good for everyone, albeit I'm not a fan of those trade wars, they accomplish little at the end of the day and they are funded with a lot of our…

[deleted]

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, though it's not only about delaying China so the US can catch up in semiconductors, but also about trying to delay China so that they miss their window of opportunity to invade Taiwan. Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s. The US is trying to deter that using a comprehensive deterrence strategy - military, diplomatic, economic. Hence new US bases in northern Philippines, US suppo…

I really dislike this warmongering. Looking at the last 150 years, or even the most recent decades, it's us having a history of invading countries or conducting military operations to support different parties. Yet, we are so blind of that. China has been mostly on the receiving stick (by European countries as well), not the offending one. Even when it comes to Vietnam or Korea it has been us who meddled in those int…

> I really dislike this warmongering.

I'm not warmongering. I'm not calling for war. I'm just observing reality and describing it.

> Looking at the last 150 years, or even the most recent decades, it's us having a history of invading countries or conducting military operations to support different parties.

I'm aware of much that, from Smedly Butler's "War is a Racket", to the CIA's disastrous interventions in Iran, Chile, and other countries, to the more recent endless wars of pre-emptive regime change against rogue states aspiring to become nuclear powers. But conversely, defending existing democracies against being overrun by authoritarian dictatorships is not that. One can be against the former and for the latter.

>The way I see it, western countries and US should take a clear stand about Taiwanese statehood, and Taiwan needs to do it first on their own in order for the rest of the world to take a stand, as they legally still lay claim on the entirety of China (and beyond).

Both conceding Taiwan to the CCP, and supporting a Taiwanese declaration of independence, would lead to bad outcomes from the US point of view. Conceding could embolden the CCP to push further, toward the other small countries in ASEAN, or Mongolia, etc. Appeasement of dictatorships has been known to lead to that outcome, especially ones already acting belligerent and hostile to their other neighbors. Conversely, formal independence for Taiwan is the CCP's red line and would certainly result in war.

What the US chose instead was to publicly support the "One China" policy so as not to embarrass the CCP or cause loss of face, which is important over there, while also supporting Taiwan's defacto independence (and, I suspect, privately communicating that an attack on Taiwan would not be acceptable). After formally switching recognition to the CCP in 1971, this was the only realistic policy position for the US to take. One could argue against formally switching recognition, but after that was done, ambiguity over Taiwan was the only option.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter if it was ethically justified or not. The fact remains that the assets were frozen by the US government which runs contrary to the notion that the US allows unrestricted capital movement. Today it's Russians' assets, yesterday it was Afghanistan's central bank's assets and tomorrow it can be any other country

I assume you'd deliver fuel to the Japanese Empire until they directly attacked you. Or maybe even later, after all deals have to be kept right?

You are mixing up the order of events here.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is subject to the same equipment dependencies as China. They don’t make the machines, they import them from the Americans, Dutch, and Germans. If China took over Taiwan, they might be able to obtain Salem great semiconductor engineers (but they could just hire them already on work visas), maybe some plans for the next 2 or 3 years on chips they can’t fab without western equipment, but that’s it. Economically,…

TW banned their semi engineerings from working in PRC this year. Economically taking over TW short/medium term would basically be placing similar tech sanctions on US/west since TW has some sole source semi inputs for leading edge semi production. Depending on how long it takes western semi to replicate, it evens semi playing field.

Only if TW has also banned their engineers from working in the USA. Also, Taiwan doesn't get great control over where their citizens work...they can't really stop someone from going to the PRC to work (although they can sanction them if they return, dual citizenship with the USA makes even this tricky).
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