JAL A359 at Tokyo collided with Coast Guard DH8C on runway and burst into flames

Post by vel0city » Wed, Jan 03, 2024, 1:48 PM UTC

jefftk wrote: post #99

Dalewyn wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once heard a wise doctor say that even if the chance of survival for a medical operation is either 10% or 90%, the practical chance the patient is battling is always 50% because he either lives or dies from that operation. Likewise, the chance of someone being in an aviation accident is close to nil (you're more likely to be in a car accident), but you are either going to be in an aviation accident or not (a 50% ch…

> even if the chance of survival for a medical operation is either 10% or 90%, the practical chance the patient is battling is always 50% because he either lives or dies from that operation I think this is rarely a productive way to think about it. For example, the chance that I might die in the next year is somewhere between 0% and 100%, and actuarial tables put it somewhere around 0.3%. [1] Should I refrain from ha…

Post by phkahler » Wed, Jan 03, 2024, 4:10 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #317

phkahler wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I would probably try to take that with me, as I would hate to survive the crash but then have a fatal medical event in the aftermath and not have the tools. But you might just die in the fire yourself, prioritizing a hypothetical emergency over a real one. There would also be plenty of medical personnel present once you get off the plane, they probably won't let you leave the scene without talking to one.

> But you might just die in the fire yourself, prioritizing a hypothetical emergency over a real one The Two Failure Fallacy is a fatal flaw of human reasoning. It's almost never correct to engineer anything on the assumption of two bad things happening simultaneously. You do your analysis based on individual/uncorrelated failure modes. And only then do you make design choices (c.f. "defense in depth", "redundancy",…

Post by spywaregorilla » Wed, Jan 03, 2024, 6:24 PM UTC

Dalewyn wrote: post #141

spywaregorilla wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a 50% chance that this doctor failed probability

I recall the original context was that telling a patient to not worry because the chance of success is high isn't actually helpful, because the objective argument doesn't take into account the patient's personal perspective. I've since extrapolated that to meaning that objective measures cannot always tell or respect the whole story, because personal perspectives can bowdlerize everything down to life or death or a 5…

Post by wolverine876 » Wed, Jan 03, 2024, 8:51 PM UTC

lxgr wrote: post #480

wolverine876 wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But having a broadcast channel accessible (for listening and talking) to all aircraft and ATC can increase situational awareness for everybody. OK, so send all messages to all aircraft (or to whatever the appropriate subset is). > pilots literally have their hands full flying the airplane. Voice is their only feedback channel Interesting. I wonder if the error rate of voice recognition exceeds the error rate of bad…

Sure, you could emulate the broadcast channel. You'd have to read out all of these prompts and acknowledgements though, since pilots also will have their eyes on many instruments other than just datalink. Definitely doable using text-to-speech, but that way you lose the original intonation (Did the speaker sound confused? Hesitant? Was it a different voice than before?) – and what did you gain?

Post by LVB » Wed, Jan 03, 2024, 9:05 PM UTC

weinzierl wrote: post #196

throw0101d wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Excellent evacuation job While there many silly reasons to force people to shutdown electronics and such on planes, I think forcing people to not have any distractions during take-offs and landings is a good thing. Over 50% of incidents (fatal and hull loss/non-fatal) occurring during landing: * https://accidentstats.airbus.com/statistics/accident-by-flig... * https://www.1001crash.com/transport-page-statistique-lg…

Even more so: Keeping the shades open could have really made a significant difference in this case, because it could have helped the flight attendants to quickly determine the exits that are safe.