131–140 of 142 posts
Previous years: 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 (the rest copied from here) 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2017: none? 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> They’re the most user-hostile of the big tech companies and I want them to lose. I'm curious, why do you want them to lose given you aren't forced to use their services?
Monopolistic practices, dominating search engine market, anticompetitive behavior in online advertising, collusion with other tech companies on hiring practices, privacy concerns over user data collection, biased search results favoring its products, tax avoidance strategies in multiple countries, anti-union activities, censorship in certain countries to comply with local laws, allegations of workplace discrimination…
> "More crypto regulations will be introduced with at least one exchange going down in 2023."
The FCA brought in new crypto regulations around promoting cryptocurrencies [1] and MiCA was enforced in the EU in 2023 [2]:
Bittrex Global announced that they are winding down. [3]
> "Startups MUST now turn a healthy growing profit to qualify for further VC investment rather than from pure hype."
Well this time, hype is not enough to get VC investment anymore due to the cessation of the zero interest rate phenomenon, given the slowing of VC funding in general in 2023 [4] [5]
> "OpenAI will gain further investment, ChatGPT by then will become a paid service with some startups fully sitting on top of the OpenAI API will also raise their prices or shut down."
The first prediction turned true with the first 10 days of 2023 [6], then 72 hours later after that the second prediction became true [7] and a paid service exists and now we have startups sitting on top of the API obviously having to charge more. The best example is Jasper.ai breathlessly comparing against ChatGPT and are charging more than ChatGPT+. (Jasper charges $49 vs $20 for ChatGPT Plus.)
This time I have only one prediction:
* Another war will be started in the east. Most likely China will invade Taiwan due to the weakness of leadership in the US under Biden. If Biden gets elected again, then it will certainly happen. Otherwise, the invasion will be further delayed.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34201706
[1] https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/guidance-crypto-fir...
[2] https://www.esma.europa.eu/esmas-activities/digital-finance-...
[4] https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/global-venture-funding-i...
[5] https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/global-funding-slows-nov...
Here are mine:
* Apple rumoured to be working on sunglasses similar to Meta Ray-bans
* Regulation is passed specifically to limit what artificial partners can do. Possible limitations: alignment required, limits in ERP, limits on session time. Best bet is China.
* Stronger regulation is passed to limit unauthorised cloning of people’s voices in one of the major economies. This beyond current weak IP and privacy laws.
* AI becomes a scapegoat in several major elections.
What I got right last year:
- text and image generating AI is hugely disruptive to education and content generation
This was pretty obvious
- Inflation eases, stock market recovers
Less obvious at the time but still likely
- A Twitter alternative breaks through.
Who woulda thunk that it would be Meta with Threads
- One of the big tech companies joins the fediverse (Microsoft most likely)
Once again, Meta for the win with Threads joining the fediverse
Now, nobody look back at all the predictions I made that didn’t happen.
Also, fairly gutted that Reddit hobbling its API was my 2022 prediction. I’m clearly prognosticating too far into the future.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I don’t think the younger generations will just roll over if you offer them cheap TVs, iPhones, or cheaper Big Macs. That's actually why I think @caprock has it right. The younger generations are building on doors that Gen X opened for them in the workplace. They are the ones demanding climate solutions. They are making it clear they aren't going to limp along until retirement when they can finally get Medicare. The…
Can you elaborate more on Gen X opening doors for younger generations? Amidst all the anti-Boomer/anti-Millennial rhetoric I tend to see bandied about online, I rarely hear anything about what good or bad Gen X has done, at least in the US. In my head, they seem like they're just along for the ride with no real effort put into major social or economic change. I am likely wrong. Open to different perspectives since th…
But - that doesn't mean that behind the scenes there haven't been plenty of Gen X that demanded remote work, demanded better pay, wanted more women in tech, etc. From my perspective, I see Millenials et al capturing the benefits that we started pushing for when we entered the workforce in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m not OP but I’ve always felt good VR will create parallel industries for travel, entertainment, etc. in ways way more interesting than gaming. Think of examples like seeing the Grand Canyon for 1/10 the price if you’re disabled or elderly. Or watching an official Taylor Swift concert like you’re actually there, for 1/2 price. No limits on ticket sales.
I haven't been to the Grand Canyon, but I've been to hundreds of concerts and I assure you, there's no existing tech that will make it "like you're actually there." The same goes for owning a house in VR worlds.
The Vision Pro becomes wildly popular at least to a subset of the population. It’s continuously sold out and people scalp for absurd prices (or try to, idk if Apple will prevent this in some way; by absurd, I’m talking minimum $10,000, maybe over $1,000,000). Some people become addicted to it like the immersion trope, they don’t care about anything else anymore, stop participating in life, neglect their health, finan…
- I predict that we will see the tangible effects of AI eating into non-technical areas (insurance, content creation, chatbots via RAG + agents) more and more. - We will continue to see price gouging in utilities and rent, driven by corporate greed. - Tesla will continue to dominate the electric car market, and Rivian will also make it.
First contact with aliens will happen or it will be confirmed to have already happened.
There’s no aliens. Not here anyway.
Hamas is defeated and Gaza is policed by the UAE. Movement across the border to Israel doesn’t resume. Movement across the border to Egypt continues to not happen.
Why in the world would the UAE want to get involved in that mess?