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Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

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351–360 of 500 posts

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Israel is committing genocide. You state these things like they are objective facts that have been proven. I suspect that most of the pro-israel side would be against israel comitting genocide (of course there are probably some extremists out there, but one hopes they are a small minority). The difference of opinion is not about whether genocide is wrong, but whether that is what Israel is doing. And hey, with the…

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Genocide is already defined by the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

There is a big difference between saying genocide is wrong, and saying that anyone dying during a war is wrong. Of course every death is a tragedy, but my expectation is that israel (like any country) follows international law. I don't expect them to be absolute pacifists.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#352
post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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> That isn't war. IDF soldiers filming themselves rifling through the underwear in a private home talking about how Arab women are sluts because they dare to have nice panties, isn't war. IDF soldiers should never do those things, and the IDF has multiple times said as much - and disciplined soldiers who did similar. (I don't know of this specific case, I think, but I've seen other very terrible displays - which most…

> If Mexico had invaded the US and killed a thousand citizens, it would be completely legitimate to ask how the US would make sure this didn't happen again.

> I wouldn't call them Nazis, that's going too far - but some of them are almost as bad, and a few have the rhetoric of Nazis, no question.

I would also call Hamas or other religious fanatics who murder "Nazis" in that sense. It's a very sloppy, but also deliberate use of the word. The question to me aren't the nuances, the differences, but the similarities.

> If Mexico had invaded the US and killed a thousand citizens, it would be completely legitimate to ask how the US would make sure this didn't happen again.

Not by committing an even bigger atrocity. Because if 1000 Israelis warrant murdering 10000 Palestinians, that means that in turn warrants murdering 100000 Israelis, then 1 million Palestinians, then all of Israel, then random pogroms against Muslims all over the world, then against Jews, until we're out of people to murder to prevent murder.

And "Gaza" didn't invade Israel. Hamas terrorists did.

How about looking into how one of the most hawkishly watched, tiniest strip of border in the whole world could be nilly-willy breached like that? I don't mean this as victim blaming, but you always first look at the things you do control.

> I am 100% certain that it will happen again if Israel does nothing.

And reducing Gaza to rubble and creating a unfathomable humanitarian crisis is going to lessen resentment? Good plan. How about dismantling the settlements? But can't give in to terrorists, can you, and do the thing you should have been doing in the first place if you had any decency. That's impossible to ask of Israelis. Instead, we just ask people in Gaza to die, quietly. Because "they started it" and "we are having our hand forced every step of the way".

> If you're starting out from the assumption that of course the IDF wants to destroy civilian buildings, OK, nothing I can do to change your mind.

I started with no assumption either way. That's what I have seen, in enough permutations.

> It is very similar in many ways to other operations carried out by e.g. the US against ISIS

Blowing up a supreme court building after posing for selfies in it? Nah.

> I have to live this. I'm the one who lives knowing that people all around the world are convinced my country is committing genocide

Have to live what? An expansionist policy rather than respecting international law? No, that's a choice. I mean not your personal choice, but since you keep talking about $country this and $country that... Israel didn't have to go down this path, and it doesn't have to continue down it.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are all idealized in that one never has certain knowledge in any of everything relevant in any of the dimensions. Which is why it's particularly useless for geopolitics. It's literally the furthest you can get from "idealized" anything - far more so than plain sociology, economics, or psychology. It's the global sum of all of the most unpredictable traits of humanity. It's one of the messiest human pursuits an…

similar to math, just because you dont know all the variable to solve an equation, doesnt mean it is useless. It is a tool to study the interactions and possible solutions, inferring some and ruling out others. Just because cows aren't spherical doesn't mean it is useful to act as though the world is devoid of physics, random and inscrutable. A spherical cow is still useful, if not perfect.

We're not talking about an extra variable here or there, we're talking about the equivalent to string theory which is famously intractable. It's an n-body problem where n = ?????? and you don't know any of the boundary conditions.

It's not random and inscrutable, but it sure isn't conducive to naive academic analyses like game theory. Just because you can model something simple, doesn't mean you can predict something as complicated as reality. The science of biology, sociology, psychology, and economics have proven that over and over again - geopolitics is all of those combined and more.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say that? To me, it just seems like more neo-reactionary rhetoric. It couldn't be that democracy, international institutions (such as the UN), etc. have changed the world - that we built a better world. That would be a threat to reactionaryism. Those institutions, including the UN and the rules-based international order, were built by the people who fought WWI and WWII, specifically to prevent future war.…

> Why aren't we building on that for the next generation, just like they did? What actions do you consider productive contributions to peace and preventing war? What aren't we doing, that was done before. What does quitting look like? > it just seems like more neo-reactionary rhetoric. It couldn't be that democracy, international institutions (such as the UN), etc. have changed the world - that we built a better worl…

What if we are powerless? If we are doomed to warfare and hatred?

That is what quitting looks like.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#355
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

It's time to read some Clausewitz. That book outlines the philosophy of how most western states think about war. The short version I would say is that war is a tool of politics, so if there is no political goal, there will be no war, regardless of how bad the supposed Causus Belli is. Shooting down a drone usually doesn't do it partly because of the political implications: it would be deeply unpopular to put "boots o…

War being “the continuation of politics by other means” is the most common misreading of Clausewitz out there. This is only one of three aspects of war which he identifies.

The political goal of a war is one part, which the governments are trying to achieve. But once the bullets start flying, there is also the anger, rage, and passions of the people as their relatives come home dead, maimed, or hurt. And finally there is the interplay of chance and luck, which the military leadership has to leverage through skilled command. To Clausewitz, war is a trinity of these things, not “the continuation of politics by other means.”

He does also go into the “cost of the object.” Whereby not every war goal is necessarily worth mobilizing the entire society and fighting an existential fight. And when the cost of achieving the goal exceeds its worth, nations will come to the table and negotiate peace.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#356
post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US was actually trying for moderate appeasement, it would have advocated for a militarily neutral Ukraine, and independence referendums in eastern Ukraine. Total appeasement would have been taking an isolationist position, ignoring the situation entirely, and not being dragged into the war. It is indisputable that the US didn't choose either of those options because it has incentives and interests that favor t…

> If the US was actually trying for moderate appeasement, it would have advocated for a militarily neutral Ukraine, and independence referendums in eastern Ukraine. Why? There was no genuine independence movement in eastern Ukraine. It was a Russian military operation right from the start, led by their security services. Russians have a long history of establishing such fake countries on the territory of other countr…

Why not?

IF that is the case, than an credible election should be a landslide. It would demonstrate commitment to democratic self determination, which I think should be a global baseline.

I have never been to Ukraine, so dont claim a any definitive knowledge of what people do an don't want.

However, I do have immigrant friends from eastern Ukraine with family there with many grievances against the central government, so I believe the real situation is at least complex.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#357
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

Like all things - wars are a combination of rational self-interest, emotions and random chance. The action itself matters less than the consequence. The typical example is that USA gets away with shit other countries can't because nobody wants to invade usa. My understanding is that in this particular situation - yemen is a humanitarian disaster after their civil war. Any country that invades is going to be seen as r…

> Like all things - wars are a combination of rational self-interest, emotions and random chance.

You’ve just hit on Clausewitz’s “wonderous yet paradoxical trinity,” which usually gets misquoted as “war is the continuation of politics by other means.”

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> our bribe to the rest of the "first world" to stand with us as cannon fodder against the USSR (the second world) during the Cold Wa It’s deeper than that. We regularly protect our adversaries’ freedom of navigation.

Agreed, wouldn't China be just as interested as us in keeping these lanes open? Why aren't they also engaging? Or do they not have assets here?

Because US protecting global shipping is overexaggeration.

US protects US flagged shipping - non US flagged vessels got hit without US intervention during tanker wars for years without US lifting finger. MENA oil exporters had to reflag under US flag (pay US taxes/protection fees) to be eligible for defense. US didn't step up to end tanker wars until bunch of US sailers killed with USS Stark was hit.

Prosperity Guardian is happening right now because Maersk and other civilian shippers that DoD depends on sealift was threatening not to transit through area. Including the ones being paid and contracted by DoD, carrying military hardware. Likely for Israel. Including DoD Maersk ships, who basically "threatened" DoD that no Maersk ships would transit Red Sea unless US protects all Maersk shipping. US is pressured to protect shipping right now because they've offloaded so much sealift to multinational civilian sector, that is now undermining US DoD logistics to leverage US to protect all shipping, not just US flagged shipping.

PLANavy has assets in region, busy gathering USN antiship interception data. Entire reason they have Djibouti base for antipiracy deployment is because they know US can't be relied on for protecting shipping. There was UN taskforce for antipiracy in Africa not because US couldn't protect against a few Somali fishing boats but because USN doesn't do global shipping protection by default. Regardless PRC has little incentive to engage, Houthi has been largely discriminary, leaving PRC shipping alone. Unless it spills into broad regional war, PRC gets to quadruple dip. They get data on US antishipping performance. Lost cargo = more purhcases fron PRC factories. Lost ships = more work for PRC ship yards. More redirected maritime traffic around Africa = more work for PRC ship yards since you need more ships for same demand. Meanwhile, PRC shippers gets to go through red sea, on shorter/faster route, and charge premium. All by just not doing anything, because it's profitable, and they get to do nothing and profit because they're not mired in MENA shit show unlike US.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#359
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems to me that trigger events for wars are often about finding a justification for a war that people in power were already wanting to start. America doesn't want to go to war with Russia because we know it could be incredibly destructive, given that they have nukes. So, it would probably take a lot to start a war between the US and Russia. They would have to attack or be clearly planning to attack a NATO ally. It's…

In this case the Houthis have been the ones not reacting for many years: https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/21/us-war-crimes-yemen-stop...

"Not reacting" how? There's been an ongoing war for almost a decade now.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#360
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious how many cargo ships does the US have?

The US isn't protecting its own ships, in particular. They are protecting international trade, on which they are highly dependant (like almost everyone but North Korea).

The US has virtually zero dependence on trade through the Red Sea area. This is more about assisting allies and maintaining regional hegemony.
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