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Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

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Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whether that justifies Russia invading parts of Ukraine is the debatable part No it isn’t? When America invaded Vietnam to keep it from going communist, that didn’t make Ho Chi Minh and his backers war mongerers. And it didn’t mean that we were provoked. We went to war to achieve the political objective of containing communism. We were the aggressors. With Ukraine, Russia’s political objectives were unclear. The st…

>The stated ones, about NATO expansion, have backfired. But just because Moscow was stupid doesn’t also mean it was absolutely the aggressor. I dont think you can stake this claim without understanding the objectives, the resolution of the war, and especially exploring the counterfactual from the Russian perspective. It is easy to sit and the west and imagine that Russia regrets its actions deep down, but as bad as t…

> It is easy to sit and the west and imagine that Russia regrets its actions deep down, but as bad as this outcome is, I think you have to ask if there are worse outcomes that were considered even worse from inaction.

I agree. Russia does not regret anything. Russia was carrying out genocide in Chechenya in late 1990s and early 2000s while the west was giving them free money in the form of development aid. The invasion of Georgia didn't see any reprecussions either, nor did the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 see any meaningful response.

If the west retreats, then this once again validates their strategy of expanding Russia with regional wars, and they will attack Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland next.

The western fear of escalation is escalating the wars, because it lowers the risk for Russia.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#342
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because events never cause wars. Countries want war and then they wait for an inciting event to go in. The US wants a war with Russia without putting boots on the ground. Ukraine was a convieinient excuse. 9/11 triggered a war with random middle eastern countries that the US wanted to invade anyway. If Cuba downed a large cargo ship, then the US will have annexed it before midnight. If China downs one in South China…

> The US wants a war with Russia without putting boots on the ground. Ukraine was a convieinient excuse. That claim seems delusional. US was doing it’s best over the last 20 years to appease Putin so that they could ignore Europe and focus on the Pacific. Hardly anyone in the west wanted to be dragged into this pointless war..

If the US was actually trying for moderate appeasement, it would have advocated for a militarily neutral Ukraine, and independence referendums in eastern Ukraine.

Total appeasement would have been taking an isolationist position, ignoring the situation entirely, and not being dragged into the war.

It is indisputable that the US didn't choose either of those options because it has incentives and interests that favor the current war over those outcomes. Reasonable people can discuss and debate what exactly those interests are (geoploticial, moral, economic, ect), and if they agree.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a lot of professional international relations material (but I'm not an expert in any way). IME what may differ the most between 'popular' takes on IR and professional ones is the response to incidents. Arguably the #1 priority of professional IR is to prevent wars (with occasional exceptions, such as Russia or Hamas recently, but even they want to control when, where, and how). Wars can and do happen whether y…

Could you recommend places to read professional IR material?

Read the journals and think tank publications - people get intimidated by the idea, but it's actually not difficult, especially after you become accustomed to it. If you read HN, these publications fit right in, in terms of complexity.

As with every field, you will discover a different plane of existence for knowledge, like people from an arid continent discovering another with far richer, deeper, more productive soil, with more vivid and interesting flora. You can't even describe it to people who haven't been there, who have never left their arid land (most of the Internet) and can't imagine a better world; they don't understand. (An example is going from newspaper science journalism to reading the journals Nature and Science.) It's sad - one of the great boons of the Internet is that now, all that wonderful knowledge is at humanity's fingertips, and instead they stay in their arid world (with floods of mis/disinformation added to it).

The general rule (with anything) is that the greater the latency, the better the information: Continuously updated (eg social media, cable news) publications aren't as rich in knowledge (or as accurate) as daily ones, which aren't as good as weekly, ..., which aren't as good as books. Don't get caught up in the daily cycle; get ahead of it - far ahead of it - by first reading the 'high-latency' publications and fitting in low-latency where you can.

---- Journals

* A good place to start is Foreign Affairs, written for professionals and what I'll call the serious public, and written by leading experts and practitioners, from US presidents and cabinet secretaries to leading diplomats to academic experts. Published quarterly.

* Another good one is Political Science Quarterly, with serious papers written by political scientists for the public. It has much more than IR, but that material is also fantastic. Stop reading everything else and pick up PSQ.

* You can find lists of the leading academic IR journals by impact. Just like in the natural sciences, there are journals where the big discoveries are published, specialised ones, etc. Look them up and see what fits your interests.

* The most valuable use of time, IME, is to read the book reviews in the journals: You learn about the leading books and ideas in IR, and from the expert reviewer you get another point of view, context, and they will talk about yet more perspectives. Also, what experts say in passing, the knowledge they've internatlized, can be the most valuable to the amatuer.

---- Think tanks

Anyone can call themselves a 'think tank', so you need to be careful. Some have tremendous expertise and seriously pursue creating and disseminating valuable knowledge. Some are the pet project of someone with some cash to spend. Some are holding tanks for experts whose party is out of power - they rotate between political office and think tanks, depending on who wins the election. Some are created to cynically provide intellectual cover for political and ideological groups - conclusions are predetermined by political leaders, the 'think tank' just finds ways to give it intellectual legitimacy (Heritage comes to mind). Many are bought and paid for by donors, including foreign powers (e.g. the Saudis), or by relationships with a particular government.

Material from good think tanks can be invaluable, making the analysis you read in even the best newspapers (even the NYT, etc.) obsolete. For the 'intellectual cover' ones, you can see their effectiveness when their talking points are repeated in newspaper op-eds, and then by your friends and neighbors (and HN commenters), and then become common 'wisdom'.

IIRC the University of Pennsylvania publishes a guide to think tanks, which might be a good starting point. Among the leading think tanks in IR are Brookings, CSIS, Chatham House (UK), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Washington Institute (for the Mideast - biased, but great info).

Finally, be sure to find think tanks in other countries, for completely different perspectives. Australia, for example, is English-speaking, has sophisticated IR, but is so geopolitically far from other English-speaking countries (almost all in NATO) that you can get a very different and eye-opening perspective, especially about China.

---- Daily analysis

Foreign Policy, which seems to cater to the Washington diplomatic community, can be pretty good. But again, beware the low-latency trap - it's not nearly as rich in knowledge as the journals and think tanks, IMHO.

There's also Defense One and Breaking Defense, which aim at professionals and the industry. Beyond newsy items, they have essays from leading experts, and analysis on a different level than even the NYT, etc. The defense industry is enormous, and my impression is that you can much more easily find material aimed at it than the tiny diplomatic 'industry'. But miltiary is just a means of IR, and there is much overlap - including in trying to prevent warfare.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US wants a war with Russia without putting boots on the ground. Ukraine was a convieinient excuse. That claim seems delusional. US was doing it’s best over the last 20 years to appease Putin so that they could ignore Europe and focus on the Pacific. Hardly anyone in the west wanted to be dragged into this pointless war..

If the US was actually trying for moderate appeasement, it would have advocated for a militarily neutral Ukraine, and independence referendums in eastern Ukraine. Total appeasement would have been taking an isolationist position, ignoring the situation entirely, and not being dragged into the war. It is indisputable that the US didn't choose either of those options because it has incentives and interests that favor t…

> If the US was actually trying for moderate appeasement, it would have advocated for a militarily neutral Ukraine, and independence referendums in eastern Ukraine.

Why?

There was no genuine independence movement in eastern Ukraine. It was a Russian military operation right from the start, led by their security services. Russians have a long history of establishing such fake countries on the territory of other countries through special operations, and then invade to "support" them. And then those happy "liberated" people hold another referendum at gunpoint and choose to join Russia. And Russia gladly annexes those territories, exterminates local population and replaces with Russians.

Ignoring the increasing hostility from Russia since mid-1990s and downplaying Eastern European security concerns was already appeasement. Russia invaded Georgia and half a year later Clinton was offering Russians a symbolic restart button like a lapdog: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_reset

It was an open invitation to continue down the path and invade Ukraine in 2014, as was Obama's refusal to provide lethal aid, and Biden's declaration that he would not put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Each step decreased uncertainties and risks for Russians.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#345
post #96
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Houthis official slogan is: “God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam." I’m petty sure they do not give a shit about making consumerism harder for Americans. In fact it’s probably a bonus.

On the other hand, this is literally the oldest, best established casus belli in the American system.

True!

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#346
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is that Russia would have been worried Ukraine had done exactly that. Publicly giving up all your nuclear stockpile is the complete opposite.

Until quite recently (and there is still a massive and extremely hard road ahead) Ukraine was basically a failed state and/or a Russian puppet. So I doubt Russia would’ve had to worry about something like that at all.

Ukraine had a functioning public health and transportation systems, universities that attracted students from other countries, a music industry that had outcompeted Russia in its own language, and tech sector with senior dev salaries routinely going up to $60-100k - and that’s just the things I have had first hand experience with. For all it’s problems, it definitely wasn’t a failed state.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#347
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We know well what the outcome often is. Well, we are about 50 years overdue for a large scale conflict? Thanks nukes. There’s something to be said for nobody wanting to open pandora’s box.

Why do you say that? To me, it just seems like more neo-reactionary rhetoric. It couldn't be that democracy, international institutions (such as the UN), etc. have changed the world - that we built a better world. That would be a threat to reactionaryism. Those institutions, including the UN and the rules-based international order, were built by the people who fought WWI and WWII, specifically to prevent future war.…

> Why aren't we building on that for the next generation, just like they did?

What actions do you consider productive contributions to peace and preventing war? What aren't we doing, that was done before. What does quitting look like?

> it just seems like more neo-reactionary rhetoric. It couldn't be that democracy, international institutions (such as the UN), etc. have changed the world - that we built a better world.

Maybe you are right and it is the institutions that changed the world, but I find it odd that you attribute causality to actions following the war, and not the war itself.

What if the rebalancing of national power and massive loss of life is what actually lead to peace, and all this discussion of institutions is just noise and fluff.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#348
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the downing of that drone increased Russian aggression. Russia doesn't want a war with the US but seems to want to push boundaries as far as possible and win it's war in Ukraine. The US response of giving weapons to Ukraine and putting Russia under sanctions is pretty aggressive, it's about as far as the US can go without actually fighting in Ukraine. It's probably serving the west well politically to i…

Well, US could (and should!) send much more weapons than it did so far - a lot of really useful surplus kit still laying around in warehouses all around the US.

Exactly! Ukraine is loosing the best Ukrainians as we speak due to the lack of weapons and it’s heart breaking to say the least. Those people in front like need much more support then they get. It’s a moral obligation of the west among other reasons.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#349
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No more awkward than supporters of Israel having to cope with Israeli ministers suggesting nuking Gaza, or having to deal with the ACLU defending Nazis in court. Every cause, even (sometimes especially ) the righteous ones, has shitty people attached to it.

Sure. Do you have a better theory for the downvotes and flag then?

Sure; it's just kinda off-topic. Tangential.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its no more ivory tower wishful thinking for the other applications than for predicting behavior; they are all idealized in that one never has certain knowledge in any of everything relevant in any of the dimensions.

> they are all idealized in that one never has certain knowledge in any of everything relevant in any of the dimensions. Which is why it's particularly useless for geopolitics. It's literally the furthest you can get from "idealized" anything - far more so than plain sociology, economics, or psychology. It's the global sum of all of the most unpredictable traits of humanity. It's one of the messiest human pursuits an…

similar to math, just because you dont know all the variable to solve an equation, doesnt mean it is useless. It is a tool to study the interactions and possible solutions, inferring some and ruling out others.

Just because cows aren't spherical doesn't mean it is useful to act as though the world is devoid of physics, random and inscrutable.

A spherical cow is still useful, if not perfect.

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