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Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

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Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#31

Post by screye »

nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

Because events never cause wars. Countries want war and then they wait for an inciting event to go in.

The US wants a war with Russia without putting boots on the ground. Ukraine was a convieinient excuse.

9/11 triggered a war with random middle eastern countries that the US wanted to invade anyway.

If Cuba downed a large cargo ship, then the US will have annexed it before midnight. If China downs one in South China sea, the US might keep it quiet because neither country wants a violent escalation into war just yet.

War is premeditated. The inciting event is just the excuse.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#32

Post by defrost »

i67vw3 wrote: post #25
nomilk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely disregarding which president is in office, I always thought the paradoxical way to minimise war is to ensure you have a credible threat of retaliation. That means if you are attacked, you must fight back, otherwise your credibility falls and you become more of a target, thus emboldening adversaries and increasing violence.

True. You have put it more succinctly than me. In Geopolitics, 'Might creates deterrence.' https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory

As in "the Might of the USofA deterred Osama Bin Laden from attacking"?

There seems to be a flaw or two in that as a truism.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#35

Post by ianburrell »

kiba wrote: post #12
nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

What would a military response look like? I am not an expert in this area, but it seems to me if it got really bad, the US might send commandos to coordinate air strikes.

The military response would look like air strikes either from carrier or Gulf bases. No commmandos required, drones have replaced them.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#36

Post by IAmGraydon »

elromulous wrote: post #23
nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

It's a function of how powerful one's adversary is. Russia is a superpower.

Russia is not a superpower or even remotely close to such a status. No country besides the US is currently considered a superpower.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#37

Post by skygazer »

__jem wrote: post #16
davidw wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Probably more in the 'emotions' camp than in the 'concrete facts' camp, even if no one wants to admit it.

Right, because endless US involvement in ground wars in the middle east has always been firmly on the side of "concrete facts."

In content and fact you seem to be in agreement with the post you're replying to, but in tone you act as though you're refuting them.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#38

Post by anigbrowl »

jmyeet wrote: post #19

Once again we see "blowback" in action. Here's the cycle: 1. A major power backs a side in an internal struggle for their own end. If necessary, a conflict is manufactured by propping up rebels, a coup, etc; 2. The other side, which tends to be the internally popular side, resists. Because of that popular support, they can survive, thrive and grow; 3. Insurgencies are incredibly effective. Counter-insurgencies are in…

[flagged]

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#39

Post by literallyWTF »

thorncorona wrote: post #8
adolph wrote: post #2

[flagged]

More relevant to the ongoing attack: > “The Yemeni position is clear,” Abdullah Ben Amer, a high-ranking Houthi official in a department that is part of the group’s defense ministry, told The New York Times. The Houthi escalation in the Red Sea will stop, he said, when “the Israeli war on the people of Gaza stops.”

[dead]

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#40

Post by bshipp »

happytiger wrote: post #17
nomilk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely disregarding which president is in office, I always thought the paradoxical way to minimise war is to ensure you have a credible threat of retaliation. That means if you are attacked, you must fight back, otherwise your credibility falls and you become more of a target, thus emboldening adversaries and increasing violence.

There are a lot of ways to prevent wars. That’s just one. - Promises not to go to war - Reduction of armaments - Machinery for the peaceful settlement of disputes between nations - Economic penalties against aggressors War doctrine is a very complicated subject, as is even the definition of war in modernity. What causes a nation to declare war is unclear and difficult to reliably determine, but there is often a perio…

Judging by the declaration of war against Ukraine by Russia, it appears an underappreciated aspect of the equation is equal measures of senility and insanity.
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